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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • Year End Trading Ranges Appear To Be Set 0 comments
    Nov 2, 2011 6:09 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, DIA, QQQ, SPY
    On February 18th ValuEngine showed slightly more than 65% of all stocks being overvalued, which was a ValuEngine Valuation Warning. At that time less then 35% of all stocks were undervalued. Similar readings corresponded to market highs on May 2nd and in mid-July. At the October 4th market lows ValuEngine showed than 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued. The Dow Industrial Average peaked at 12,876.00 on May 2nd and bottomed at 10,404.49 on October 4th showing that you can time market highs and market lows using fundamental data. In-between these extreme levels my annual pivot at 11,491 has been a magnet tested numerous times. This why my year end forecast includes the prediction that we have set both the low and the high for the year with the upside potential being my quarterly risky level at 12,507. Year end trading ranges have also been set for the other US Capital Markets.
     
    10-Year Note – (1.978) Daily, weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.177, 2.191, 2.414, 2.669 and 2.690 with a monthly pivot at 1.963 and semiannual risky level at 1.672. My monthly pivot was tested on Tuesday and 1.672 was tested on September 23rd.
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    Comex Gold – ($1720.6) Semiannual, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1644.8, $1537.5, $1469.9 and $1,356.5 with my quarterly pivot at $1738.4 and daily and monthly risky levels at $1793.5 and $1821.50, and the September 6th all time high at $1923.7. The year’s low was $1535.0 set on September 26th.
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    Nymex Crude Oil ($91.30) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with my weekly value level at $86.38, monthly and daily pivots at $95.67 and $97.06, and quarterly and annual risky levels at $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92. The high and low for oil happened on the same days as the Dow with the high at $114.83 per barrel on May 2nd.
     
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    The Euro – (1.3705) Weekly, and quarterly value levels are 1.3319 and 1.2598 with daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4047, 1.4568, 1.4752 and 1.4872.
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    Daily Dow: (11,658) My annual value level is 11,491 with weekly and monthly pivots at 11,694 and 11,928, and daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,238, 12,507 and 13,890. The October 4th low was 10,404.49 with the May 2nd high at 12,876.00.
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    S&P 500 (1218.3) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with my annual pivot at 1210.7, monthly and weekly pivots at 1229.3 and 1231.9, and daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1278.6, 1303.7 and 1562.9. The YTD high is 1370.58. My annual risky level is 1562.9.
     
    NASDAQ (2607) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with my annual value level at 2335, monthly and weekly pivots at 2636 and 2686, and daily and quarterly risky levels at 2735 and 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is 3243.
     
    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2298) - The YTD low is 2034.92 with a monthly value level at 2294, and daily, weekly, and quarterly risky levels at 2393, 2394 and 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42 and annual risky level at 2590.
     
    Dow Transports (4766) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with weekly and semiannual value levels at 4739, 4335 and 3868, and daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 5019, 5034, 5179 and 5359, and the YTD high / all time high at 5627.85 on July 7th.
     
    Russell 2000 (713.93) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with weekly and monthly pivots at 713.93 and 739.80, and daily, annual and quarterly risky levels at 766.80, 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high / all time high at 868.57 on May 2nd.
     
    The SOX– (374.05) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with a monthly value level at 339.47, and daily, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 400.63, 398.86 and 417.63, and the YTD high at 450.79.
     
    Equity Fundamentals – Stocks are extremely undervalued.
    • 81.6% of all stocks are undervalued / 18.4% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4th 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
    • All sixteen sectors are undervalued, fifteen by double-digit percentages. Four are undervalued by 20.8% to 25.0%. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. – Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.
     
    VE Morning Briefing – If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D
     
    ValuTrader Model Portfolio – If you want to learn how to “Buy and Trade” use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V
     
    ETF Weekly – If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U
     
    ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report – In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C
     
    Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
     
    Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
    • Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level – The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
     
    Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
    • Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level – The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
     
    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist
    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576
     
    To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe?
     
    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
     
    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
     
    “I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”
    Themes: Markets in trading ranges Stocks: TLT, GLD, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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