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Potential Weekly Key Reversal On The Russell 2000!

Nov. 02, 2013 10:24 AM ETTLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year retested its annual pivot at 2.476% pre-Fed Statement last Wednesday and the daily chart favors a retest of its 50-day SMA at 2.706%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond could rise to its 50-day at 3.732% given its negative daily chart. The weekly chart shows the 10-Year yield back above its 200-week SMA at 2.506%. The weekly chart shows the 30-year yield back above its 200-week SMA at 3.619%.

10-Year Note - (2.620) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 2.829 and 3.227 with daily, annual, weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2.562, 2.476, 2.380, 2.252 and 1.981.

Comex gold has a negative daily chart with the precious metal below its 50-day SMA at $1339.3 with the 200-day SMA at $1425.3. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at $1325.4 and the 200-week SMA is $1479.4.

Crude oil is below its 200-day SMA at $98.74 with a negative but oversold daily chart. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $101.11 and the 200-week SMA at $91.56.

The euro vs. the dollar has negative daily chart with its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3486 and 1.3219 after last Friday's 52-week high at 1.3832. The weekly chart shifts to neutral with overbought momentum with the five-week MMA at 1.3526 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3323.

Comex Gold - ($1315.5) Weekly and monthly value levels are $1248.2 and $1171.8 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1332.1, $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1.

Nymex Crude Oil - ($94.65) My weekly value level is $91.95 with a daily pivot at $95.36 with monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $105.04, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23.

The Euro - (1.3490) Monthly, annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3428, 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3602, 1.3913 and 1.4295.

The daily chart for the Dow Industrial Average remains positive but overbought with the 50-day SMA at 15,236.55 with the Oct. 30 all time high at 15,721.00. The S&P 500 is positive but overbought with its 50-day SMA at 1698.35 with the Oct. 30 all time high at 1775.22. The Nasdaq is positive but overbought with its 50-day SMA at 3774.83 with its Oct. 30 multi-year high at 3966.71. The Dow Transportation Average is positive but overbought with its 50-day SMA at 6638.32 with its Oct. 29 all time high at 7064.67. The Russell 2000 has a negative daily profile, which was warned by a key reversal on Oct. 30. The Russell is still above its 50-day SMA at 1070.36 with the Oct. 30 all time high at 1123.26.

The weekly chart for Dow Industrials is positive with its five-week MMA at 15,359.20. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1718.54. The weekly chart for the Nasdaq stays positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 3820.57. The weekly chart for Dow Transports is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 6750.09. The weekly chart for the Russell 2000 remains positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1081.86, but the chart shows a weekly key reversal with Friday's close below last week's low.

The key level to watch in November is a monthly pivot at 6927 on Dow Transports. A weekly close below 6927 on Transports would be a warning. Without this warning the upside is to new weekly and monthly risky levels at 15,877 / 16,162 Dow Industrials, 1791.3 / 1802.0 S&P 500, 4024 / 4014 Nasdaq, 7186 Dow Transports and 1145.34 / 1133.14 Russell 2000. Another warning applies to the Russell 2000 which had a weekly key reversal last week. After setting a new all time high at 1123.26 on Oct. 30 the small cap index ended the week at 1095.67, below the prior week's low at 1105.35. This is offset by having the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 above semiannual pivots at 1743.5, 3759 and 1089.42. Semiannual and quarterly risky levels remain at; 16,490 / 16,775 Dow Industrials, 1853.8 S&P 500, 4025 Nasdaq, 7104 / 7205 Dow Transports and 1163.21 Russell 2000. If the stock bubble breaks the risk is to my annual pivots / value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1400.7 / 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5925 / 5469 Dow Transports, and 860.25 / 809.54 Russell 2000.

Daily Dow: (15,616) Semiannual and annual value levels are 14,724 and 12,696 with a daily pivot at 15,674, the Oct. 30 all time high at 15,721.00, and weekly, monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 15,877, 16,162, 16,490 and 16,775.

S&P 500 - (1761.6) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1606.9, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with semiannual and daily pivots at 1743.5 and 1764.4, the Oct. 30 all time high at 1775.22, and weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1791.3, 1802.0 and 1853.8.

NASDAQ - (3922) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3759, 3668 and 2806 with a daily pivot at 3930, the Oct. 30 multi-year high at 3966.71, and monthly, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 4014, 4024 and 4025.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3380) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3304 and 2463 with a daily pivot at 3386, the Oct. 30 multi-year high at 3408.67, and monthly, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 3425, 3446 and 3477.

Dow Transports - (7048) Annual value levels are 5925 and 5469 with a monthly pivot at 6927, the Oct. 29 all time high at 7064.67, and daily, weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 7122, 7186, 7104 and 7205.

Russell 2000 - (1095.67) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1089.42, 860.25 and 809.54 with a daily pivot at 1103.56, the Oct. 30 all time high at 1123.26, and monthly, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1133.14, 1145.34 and 1163.21.

The SOX - (505.40) Daily and annual value levels are 494.68 and 338.03 with the Oct. 31 multi-year high at 510.17, and monthly, weekly, quarterly and semiannual risky level at 519.72, 520.64, 514.87 and 533.56.

Dow Utilities: (504.65) My semiannual value level is 481.92 with a daily pivot at 504.83, and weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 510.63, 514.62, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37.

To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

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