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Richard Suttmeier
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the... More
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  • From Crackle On Thursday To Snap On Friday, But Bubble Won't Pop. 0 comments
    Nov 9, 2013 12:40 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year rose above its 50-day SMA at 2.692% on Friday to a high of 2.763% vs. my monthly value level at 2.829%. This is up from a test of my annual pivot at 2.476% Pre-FOMC on Oct. 30. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond rose to 3.855% on Friday well above its 50-day SMA at 3.730% closing above my monthly pivot at 3.814%. The weekly chart shows the 10-Year yield above its 200-week SMA at 2.500% and its five-week MMA at 2.659%. The weekly chart shows the 30-year yield above its 200-week SMA at 3.615% and its five-week MMA at 3.721%.

    10-Year Note - (2.750) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 2.829 and 3.227 with a daily pivot at 2.765 and annual, weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2.476, 2.426, 2.252 and 1.981.

    Comex gold has a negative daily chart with its 50-day SMA at $1329.1 and 200-day SMA at $1416.0. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $1316.8 and 200-week SMA at $1480.1.

    Crude oil is below its 200-day SMA at $98.70 with a negative but oversold daily chart. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $99.74 and 200-week SMA at $91.62.

    The euro vs. the dollar has negative daily chart with its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3500 and 1.3216. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at 1.3495 and 200-week SMA at 1.3318.

    Comex Gold - ($1287.6) Daily and monthly value levels are $1278.9 and $1171.8 with a weekly pivot at $1298.4 and quarterly and annual risky levels at $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($94.37) Daily and weekly value levels are $91.42 and $90.43 with monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $105.04, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23.

    The Euro - (1.3369) Daily, annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3251, 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with a monthly pivot at 1.3428 and weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3777 and 1.4295.

    The daily chart for the Dow Industrial Average is positive but overbought with the 50-day SMA at 15,316.73 and its Nov. 7 all-time high at 15,797.68. The daily chart for the S&P 500 is neutral with its 50-day SMA at 1710.36 and the Oct. 30 all-time high at 1775.22. The Nasdaq has a neutral daily chart with its 50-day SMA at 3804.62 and its Oct. 30 multi-year high at 3966.71. The Dow Transportation Average is neutral with its 50-day SMA at 6720.74 and its Nov. 4 all-time high at 7131.80. The Russell 2000 has a negative daily chart with its 50-day SMA at 1079.38 and the Oct. 30 all-time high at 1123.26.

    The weekly chart for Dow Industrials is positive with its five-week MMA at 15,448.76. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1729.84. The weekly chart for the Nasdaq is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 3842.31. The weekly chart for Dow Transports is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 6809.11. The weekly chart for the Russell 2000 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1085.47.

    The overvalued stock market has four of the five major averages overbought on the weekly charts. The Dow Industrial Average has a positive weekly chart in what I describe as a Snap, Crackle then Pop stock market. Stocks crackled lower on Thursday, snapped back on Friday, but the Fed-induced equities bubble is not yet ready to pop. Dow Transports stayed above its monthly pivot at 6927 last week which remains the key support among the five major equity averages. This week's value level is 15,541 Dow Industrials with weekly risky levels at 1778.8 S&P 500, 4005 Nasdaq, 7137 Dow Transports and 1132.09 Russell 2000. Semiannual pivots are 1743.5 S&P 500, 3759 Nasdaq, 7104 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. Monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels are 16,162, 16,775 and 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1802 and 1853.8 S&P 500, 4014 and 4025 Nasdaq, 7205 Dow Transports and 1133.14 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. If the stock bubble pops the risk is to my annual pivots / value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000.

    Daily Dow: (15,762) Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 15,631, 15,541, 14,724 and 12,696 with the Nov. 7 all-time high at 15,797.68, and monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,162, 16,490 and 16,775.

    S&P 500 - (1770.6) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 1755.6, 1606.9, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with a semiannual pivot at 1743.5, the Oct. 30 all-time high at 1775.22, and weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1778.8, 1802.0 and 1853.8.

    NASDAQ - (3919) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3759, 3668 and 2806 with a daily pivot at 3887, the Oct. 30 multi-year high at 3966.71, and weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4005, 4014 and 4025.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3366) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 3354, 3304 and 2463 with the Oct. 30 multi-year high at 3408.67, and monthly, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 3425, 3440 and 3477.

    Dow Transports - (7017) Annual value levels are 5925 and 5469 with monthly, daily and semiannual pivots at 6927, 7008 and 7104, the Nov. 4 all time high at 7131.80, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 7137 and 7205.

    Russell 2000 - (1099.97) Daily and annual value levels are 1076.92, 860.25 and 809.54 with my semiannual pivot at 1089.42, the Oct. 30 all time high at 1123.26, and weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1132.09, 1133.14 and 1163.21.

    The SOX - (500.98) My annual value level is 338.03 with a daily pivot at 500.08, the Oct. 31 multi-year high at 510.17, and weekly, monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky level at 509.36, 519.72, 514.87 and 533.56.

    Dow Utilities: (502.46) My semiannual value level is 481.92 with a daily pivot at 501.10, and weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 512.31, 514.62, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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