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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • Yellen Rally Fails To Result In New Market Highs 0 comments
    Nov 21, 2013 5:48 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note rose to 2.839% on Thursday vs. the Sept. 6 high at 3.007%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond rose to 3.938% on Thursday testing its year to date high at 3.94% set on Aug. 22. The weekly chart has been favoring a higher 10-Year yield and that continues with a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 2.692%. The weekly continues to favor a higher 30-year yield given a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 3.768%.

    10-Year Note - (2.792) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 2.829 and 3.227 with daily, weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2730, 2.557, 2.476, 2.252 and 1.981.

    30-Year Bond - (3.894) My semiannual value level is 4.807 with daily, monthly, weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 3.819, 3.814, 3.682, 3.487 and 3.014.

    Comex gold has a negative but oversold daily chart with June 28 year to date low at $1179.4. The 50-day SMA is $1309.9 with the 200-day SMA at $1398.1. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $1297.5.

    Crude oil has a positive daily chart with the 200-day SMA at $98.57. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $97.91 and the 200-week SMA at $91.80.

    The euro vs. the dollar has a neutral daily chart with its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3549 and 1.3218. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a close this week below its five-week MMA at 1.3492. The 200-week SMA is a critical support at 1.3310.

    Comex Gold - ($1241.3) My monthly value level is $1171.8 with daily and weekly pivots at $1248.7 and $1288.9, and quarterly and annual risky levels at $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($95.16) daily and weekly value levels are $92.65 and $91.41 with monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $105.04, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23.

    The Euro - (1.3470) Monthly, annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3428, 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3535, 1.3581 and 1.4295.

    The Dow Industrial Average has a positive but overbought daily chart its 21-day SMA at 15,738 and its Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 16,030.28. The S&P 500 has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 21-day SMA at 1772.0 and its Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 1802.33, which was a test of my monthly risky level at 1802.0. The Nasdaq has a neutral daily chart profile with the 21-day SMA at 3936 with its Nov. 18 multi-year intra-day high at 3994.97. The Dow Transportation Average has a neutral daily chart with its 21-day SMA at 7083 and its Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 7245.43. The Russell 2000 has a positive daily chart with its 21-day SMA at 1106.57 and its Oct. 30 all-time high at 1123.26.

    The weekly chart for Dow Industrials is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 15,643. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1753.9. The weekly chart for the Nasdaq is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 3891. The weekly chart for Dow Transports is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 6946. The weekly chart for the Russell 2000 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1097.85.

    So far the major equity averages have failed at tests of my monthly risky level at 1802.0 on the S&P 500 and my quarterly risky level at 7205 on Dow Transports. This week's value level is 15,624 Dow Industrials, with weekly pivots at 1782.6 S&P 500 and 7126 Dow Transports and weekly risky levels at 4015 Nasdaq and 1126.52 Russell 2000. Semiannual, quarterly or monthly pivots are 1743.5 and 1802.0 S&P 500, 3759 Nasdaq, 7104, 7205 and 6927 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. Monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels are 16,162, 16,775 and 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1853.8 S&P 500, 4014 and 4025 Nasdaq and 1133.14 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. If the stock bubble pops the risk is to my annual pivots / value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000.

    Daily Dow: (16,010) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 15,624, 14,724 and 12,696 with the Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 16,030.28, and daily, monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,056, 16,162, 16,490 and 16,775.

    S&P 500 - (1796.1) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1743.5, 1606.9, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with a weekly and monthly pivots at 1782.6 and 1802.0, the Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 1802.33, and daily and quarterly risky levels at 1804.7, 796.4 and 1853.8.

    NASDAQ - (3969) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3759, 3668 and 2806 with a daily risky level at 3988, the Nov. 18 multi-year intra-day high at 3994.97, and weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4015, 4014, 4025.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3403) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3304 and 2463 with a daily risky level at 3426, the Nov. 19 multi-year intra-day high at 3429.20, and monthly, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 3425, 3450 and 3477.

    Dow Transports - (7173) Monthly and annual value levels are 6927, 5925 and 5469 with semiannual, weekly and quarterly pivots at 7104, 7126 and 7205,the Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 7245.43, and daily risky level at 7252.

    Russell 2000 - (1118.19) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1089.42, 860.25 and 809.54 with a daily pivot at 1115.89, the Oct. 30 all time multi-year intra-day high at 1123.26, and weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1126.52, 1133.14 and 1163.21.

    The SOX - (504.23) My annual value level is 338.03 with daily and weekly risky levels at 506.74 and 509.72, the Oct. 31 multi-year intra-day high at 510.17, and monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 519.72, 514.87 and 533.56.

    Dow Utilities: (495.87) My semiannual value level is 481.92 with daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 499.06, 509.65, 514.62, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

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