Seeking Alpha

Richard Suttmeier's  Instablog

Richard Suttmeier
Send Message
ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
My company:
ValuEngine
My blog:
valuengine.com/ve/ma...
  • Risky Levels Still Loom In An Overvalued, Overbought Market 0 comments
    Nov 27, 2013 5:00 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note rose to 2.839% on Nov. 21 vs. the Sept. 6 high at 3.007% with the 50-day simple moving average at 2.654%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond rose to 3.938% on Nov. 21 testing its year to date high at 3.94% set on Aug. 22 with the 50-day SMA at 3.730%. The weekly chart still favors a higher 10-Year yield with a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 2.697%. The weekly chart favors a higher 30-year yield given a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 3.769%.

    10-Year Note - (2.734) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2.771, 2.829 and 3.227 with a weekly pivot at 2.711, and annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2.476, 2.252 and 1.981.

    30-Year Bond - (3.806) Daily and semiannual value levels are 3.865 and 4.807 with a weekly pivot at 3.810 and quarterly and annual risky levels at 3.487 and 3.014.

    Comex gold has a negative but oversold daily chart with June 28 year to date low at $1179.4. The 50-day SMA is $1304.4 with the 200-day SMA at $1389.9. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $1286.5.

    Crude oil has a negative daily chart with the 21-day and 200-day SMAs at $94.27 and $98.50. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $96.73 and the 200-week SMA at $91.90, which was crossed for the first time since mid-April.

    The euro vs. the dollar has a positive daily chart with its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3559 and 1.3222. The weekly chart is neutral with the five-week MMA at 1.3522. The 200-week SMA is 1.3309.

    Comex Gold - ($1237.9) Daily and monthly value levels are $1210.0 and $1171.8 with a weekly pivot at $1246.3, and quarterly and annual risky levels at $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($92.35) My weekly value level is $92.09 with a daily pivot at $93.55 and monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $105.04, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23.

    The Euro - (1.3573) Monthly, annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3428, 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with a daily pivot at 1.3555, and weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3601 and 1.4295.

    The Dow Industrial Average has a positive but overbought daily chart its 21-day SMA at 15,833 and its Nov. 26 all-time intra-day high at 16,120.25. The S&P 500 has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 21-day SMA at 1780.2 and its Nov. 26 all-time intra-day high at 1808.42 above my monthly pivot at 1802.0. The Nasdaq has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 21-day SMA at 3949 with its Nov. 27 multi-year intra-day high at 4045.80 vs. my monthly and quarterly pivots at 4014 and 4025 with this week's risky level at 4045. The Dow Transportation Average has a positive daily chart with its 21-day SMA at 7113 and its Nov. 27 all-time intra-day high at 7260.99. The Russell 2000 has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 21-day SMA at 1108.69 and its Nov. 27 all-time high at 1136.24 vs. My monthly risky level at 1141.21.

    The weekly chart for Dow Industrials is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 15,742. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1766.1. The weekly chart for the Nasdaq is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 3923. The weekly chart for Dow Transports is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 7017. The weekly chart for the Russell 2000 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1106.49.

    Semiannual and quarterly pivots are 1743.5 S&P 500, 3759 and 4025 Nasdaq, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. Quarterly and semiannual risky levels are 16,775 and 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1853.8 S&P 500, and 1163.21 Russell 2000. If the stock bubble pops the risk is to my annual pivots / value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000.

    Daily Dow: (16,097) Semiannual and annual value levels are 14,724 and 12,696 with daily and weekly pivots at 16,096 and 16,019, the Nov. 26 all-time intra-day high at 16,120.25, and monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,162, 16,490 and 16,775.

    S&P 500 - (1807.7) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 1797.8, 1743.5, 1606.9, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with my monthly pivot at 1802.0, the Nov. 26 all-time intra-day high at 1808.42, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1827.3 and 1853.8.

    NASDAQ - (4045) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 3984, 3759, 3668 and 2806 with monthly and quarterly pivots at 4014 and 4025, the Nov. 27 multi-year intra-day high at 4045.80, and a weekly risky level at 4056.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3470) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 3416, 3304 and 2463 with a monthly pivot at 3425, the Nov. 27 multi-year intra-day high at 3471.64, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 3487 and 3477.

    Dow Transports - (7255) Monthly and annual value levels are 6927, 5925 and 5469 with daily, semiannual and quarterly pivots at 7169, 7104 and 7205, the Nov. 27 all-time intra-day high at 7260.99, and a weekly risky level at 7352.

    Russell 2000 - (1140.71) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 1126.00, 1089.42, 860.25 and 809.54 with monthly and weekly pivots at 1133.14 and 1138.32, the Nov. 27 all time multi-year intra-day high at 1141.21, and quarterly risky level at 1163.21.

    The SOX - (510.01) Daily and annual value levels are 499.71 and 338.03 with the Nov. 27 multi-year intra-day high at 510.22, and weekly, monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 514.16, 519.72, 514.87 and 533.56.

    Dow Utilities: (487.16) Daily and semiannual value levels are 482.77 and 481.92 with weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 513.13, 514.62, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

Back To Richard Suttmeier's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.