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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • Higher Yields Put Pressure On Overvalued And Overbought US Stocks. 0 comments
    Dec 5, 2013 5:22 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note rose to 2.874% on Thursday vs. the Sept. 6 high at 3.007%. The 50-day SMA is the resistance at 2.659%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond rose to 3.923% on Thursday vs. the year to date high at 3.94% set on Aug. 22. The 50-day SMA is the resistance at 3.739%. The weekly charts favor a higher 10-Year and 30-Year yields given weekly closes above their five-week MMA at 2.732% and 3.799%.

    10-Year Note - (2.866) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 3.117 and 3.227 with daily, weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2.826, 2.712, 2.476, 2.252 and 1.981.

    30-Year Bond - (3.915) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4.006 and 4.807 with daily, weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 3.872, 3.796, 3.487 and 3.014.

    Comex gold has a neutral daily chart with June 28 year to date low at $1179.4. Daily momentum is rising with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1261.1, $1294.0 and $1380.6. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $1275.5.

    Crude oil has a positive daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $94.34, $97.71 and $98.50. The weekly chart shifts to neutral with oversold momentum with a weekly close above its five-week MMA at $96.94. The 200-week SMA at $92.03 held at last week's low of $91.77.

    The euro vs. the dollar has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 50-day SMA at 1.3571. The weekly chart shifts to positive with a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 1.3553.

    Comex Gold - ($1225.1) My monthly value level is $1062.1 with daily and weekly pivots at $1227.9 and $1261.4 and quarterly and annual risky levels at $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($97.36) Daily and weekly value levels are $95.21 and $88.51 with monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $98.21, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23.

    The Euro - (1.3667) My annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with weekly and daily pivots at 1.3582 and 1.3627 and monthly and annual risky levels at 1.3840 and 1.4295.

    Daily Charts: The Dow Industrial Average stays negative with a close below its 21-day SMA at 15,846. The S&P 500 shifts to negative on a close below its 21-day SMA at 1788.1. The Nasdaq remains positive but overbought with the 21-day SMA at 3977. The Dow Transportation Average shifts to negative with a daily close below its 21-day SMA at 7148. The Russell 2000 shifts to negative with a daily close below the 21-day at 1114.90.

    Weekly Charts: Dow Industrials is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 15,759. The S&P 500 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1769.6. The Nasdaq is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 3950. Dow Transports is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 7040 and a close below 7196 is a weekly key reversal. The Russell 2000 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1110.55.

    Proprietary Analytics: My monthly value level is 6941 Dow Transports with weekly and monthly risky levels at 16,093 and 16,435 Dow Industrials, 1820.2 and 1855.7 S&P 500, 4101 and 4114 Nasdaq, 7487 Dow Transports and 1143.82 and 1152.68 Russell 2000. Semiannual and quarterly pivots are 1743.5 S&P 500, 3759 and 4025 Nasdaq, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,490 and 16,775 Dow Industrials, 1853.8 S&P 500 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. The pivots at 7104 / 7205 Dow Transports became magnets this week.

    If the stock bubble pops in December the risk is to my annual value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000.

    Daily Dow: (15,822) Semiannual and annual value levels are 14,724 and 12,696 with daily and monthly pivots at 15,888 and 16,093, the Nov. 29 all-time intra-day high at 16,174.51, and weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,435, 16,490 and 16,775.

    S&P 500 - (1785.0) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1743.5, 1606.9, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with daily and monthly pivots at 1790.3 and 1810.2, the Nov. 29 all-time intra-day high at 1813.55, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1821.0, 1855.7 and 1853.8.

    NASDAQ - (4033) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3759, 3668 and 2806 with a quarterly pivot at 4025, the Nov. 29 multi-year intra-day high at 4069.70, and daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 4076, 4101 and 4114.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3478) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3304 and 2463 with a quarterly pivot at 3477, the Dec. 2 multi-year intra-day high at 3501.07, and monthly, daily and weekly risky levels at 3518, 3518 and 3544.

    Dow Transports - (7157) Monthly and annual value levels are 6941, 5925 and 5469 with semiannual, quarterly and daily pivots at 7104, 7205 and 7207, the Dec. 2 all-time intra-day high at 7304.49, and daily and weekly risky levels at 7243 and 7487.

    Russell 2000 - (1122.47) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1089.42, 860.25 and 809.54 with daily and monthly pivots at 1133.37 and 1143.82, the Nov. 29 all time multi-year intra-day high at 1147.00, and weekly, daily and quarterly risky levels at 1152.68, 1160.14 and 1163.21.

    The SOX - (509.95) My annual value level is 338.03 with weekly and daily pivots at 511.29 and 513.58, the Dec. 3 multi-year intra-day high at 512.89, and quarterly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 514.87, 526.74 and 533.56.

    Dow Utilities: (484.41) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 479.85, 479.08 and 481.92 with weekly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 515.09, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

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