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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • A New High Eludes The Dow Transportation Average.  0 comments
    Dec 21, 2013 9:02 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The daily chart for the yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note is neutral with the 21-day SMA at 2.823% after a high at 2.966%. The daily chart for the US Treasury 30-Year bond favors lower yields with the 21-day SMA at 3.865%. The weekly charts favor higher 10-Year and 30-Year yields given weekly closes above their five-week MMA at 2.785% and 3.815%.

    10-Year Note - (2.885) Daily, weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2.958, 3.071, 3.117 and 3.227 with annual and quarterly risky levels at 2.476 and 2.252.

    30-Year Bond - (3.824) Daily, weekly, and monthly and semiannual value levels are 3.920, 4.056, 4.006 and 4.807 with quarterly and annual risky levels at 3.487 and 3.014.

    Comex gold has a negative daily chart with the 21-day SMA at $1234.7 and the June 28 low at $1179.4. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $1255.1.

    Crude oil has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $96.37, $96.58 and $98.83. The weekly chart shifts to positive with the five-week MMA at $97.38 and the 200-week SMA at $92.24.

    The euro vs. the dollar has a neutral daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3658, 1.3610 and 1.3275. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at 1.3611 and 200-week SMA at 1.3311.

    Comex Gold - ($1202.0) Daily, weekly and monthly value levels are $1182.8, $1148.3 and $1062.1 with quarterly and annual risky levels at $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($99.20) My weekly value level is $93.76 with daily and monthly pivots at $97.21 and $98.21 and semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23.

    The Euro - (1.3673) Weekly, annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3367, 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with a daily pivot at 1.3679 and monthly and annual risky levels at 1.3722, 1.3840 and 1.4295.

    Daily Charts Are Positive: The Dow Industrial Average is positive with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 15,987, 15,767 and 15,235. The S&P 500 is positive with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1797.5, 1774.4 and 1670.8. The Nasdaq is positive with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4034, 3964 and 3612. The Dow Transportation Average is positive with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 7182, 7065 and 6524. The Russell 2000 is positive with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1124.85, 1112.86 and 1028.10.

    Weekly Charts Are Positive / Overbought: Dow Industrials remains positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 15,875 as the 200-week SMA rises to 12,719. The S&P 500 is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 1782.8 and the 200-week SMA at 1364.9. The Nasdaq is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 3992 and the 200-week SMA at 2902. Dow Transports is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 7100 and the 200-week SMA at 5287. The Russell 2000 is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 1118.39 and the 200-week SMA at 820.37.

    As I have been saying, 'If you cannot confirm cycle highs new highs will follow', and this was the headline for last week. Friday's new all-time intra-day highs at 16,287.84 and 1823.75 on Dow Industrials and S&P 500 were tests of last week's risky levels at 16,287 and 1823.4 respectively. This week's value level is 1129.47 Russell 2000 with a weekly pivot at 4090 Nasdaq and weekly risky levels at 16,365 Dow Industrials, 1831.8 S&P 500 and 7338 on Dow Transports. My monthly value level is 6941 Dow Transports with monthly pivots at 16,093 Dow Industrials, 1810.2 S&P 500, 1143.82 Russell 2000 and monthly risky level at 4114 Nasdaq, which was nearly tested at Friday's high. Semiannual and quarterly pivots are 1743.5 S&P 500, 3759 and 4025 Nasdaq, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. Semiannual and quarterly risky levels are 16,490 and 16,775 Dow Industrials, 1853.8 S&P 500 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. My annual value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000.

    Daily Dow: (16,179) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 15,885, 14,724 and 12,696 with a monthly pivot at 16,093, the Dec. 19 all-time intra-day high at 16,194.73, and weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,287, 16,490 and 16,775.

    S&P 500 - (1809.6) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 1776.7, 1743.5 and 1348.3 with a monthly pivot at 1810.2, the Nov. 29 all-time intra-day high at 1813.55, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1823.4 and 1853.8.

    NASDAQ - (4058) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 3999, 3759, 3668 and 2806 with quarterly and weekly pivots at 4025 and 4061, the Dec. 9 multi-year intra-day high at 4081.78, and monthly risky level at 4114.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3499) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 3451, 3304 and 2463 with quarterly and weekly pivots at 3477 and 3508, my monthly risky level at 3518, and the Dec. 9 multi-year intra-day high at 3524.00.

    Dow Transports - (7206) Daily, monthly and annual value levels are 7056, 6941, 5925 and 5469 with semiannual and quarterly pivots at 7104 and 7205, the Dec. 2 all-time intra-day high at 7304.49, and a weekly risky level at 7413.

    Russell 2000 - (1125.45) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 1104.91, 1089.42, 860.25 and 809.54 with weekly and monthly pivots at 1116.90 and 1143.82, the Nov. 29 all time intra-day high at 1147.00, and quarterly risky level at 1163.21.

    The SOX - (517.78) Daily, weekly and annual value levels are 510.49, 505.37 and 338.03 with a quarterly pivot at 514.87, the Dec. 18 multi-year intra-day high at 521.19, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 526.74 and 533.56.

    Dow Utilities: (483.74) Daily, monthly and semiannual pivots are 475.23, 479.08 and 481.92 with weekly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 492.60, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

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