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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • Look For New Value Levels, Risky Levels And Pivots On Jan. 2, 2014. 0 comments
    Dec 30, 2013 5:33 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note reached a new multi-year intra-day high at 3.02% on Dec. 27 and the daily chart shows that the rise in yield is overdone with the 21-day SMA at 2.878%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond tested 4.00% on Dec. 30 with its 21-day SMA at 3.882. The weekly charts favor higher 10-Year and 30-Year yields given weekly closes above their five-week MMA at 2.858% and 3.853%.

    10-Year Note - (2.976) Daily, weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 3.062, 3.068, 3.117 and 3.227 with a daily pivot at 3.002 and annual and quarterly risky levels at 2.476 and 2.252.

    30-Year Bond - (3.905) Weekly, and monthly and semiannual value levels are 4.038, 4.006 and 4.807 with a daily pivot at 3.912 and quarterly and annual risky levels at 3.487 and 3.014.

    Comex gold has a neutral daily chart with the 21-day SMA at $1226.3 and the June 28 low at $1179.4. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $1238.7.

    Crude oil has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $97.68, $96.37 and $99.01 after testing $100.75 on Dec. 27. The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at $98.35 and the 200-week SMA at $92.43, which was tested on Nov. 27.

    The euro vs. the dollar has a positive daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3701, 1.3623 and 1.3299 with a 2013 high at 1.3892 on Dec. 27. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at 1.3673 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3312.

    Comex Gold - ($1195.9) Daily, weekly and monthly value levels are $1175.8, $1164.6 and $1062.1 with quarterly and annual risky levels at $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($99.22) Weekly and monthly value levels are $98.54 and $98.21 with daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $101.09, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23.

    The Euro - (1.3799) Annual and quarterly value levels are 1.3257, 1.2805 and 1.2477 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.3662 and 1.3751 and monthly and annual risky levels at 1.3840 and 1.4295.

    Daily Charts Are Positive / Overbought: The Dow Industrial Average is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 16,072, 15,880 and 15,283. The S&P 500 is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1805.7, 1786.8 and 1677.8. The Nasdaq is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4070, 3997 and 3634. The Dow Transportation Average is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 7213, 7130 and 6553. The Russell 2000 is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1132.36, 1119.94 and 1033.45.

    Weekly Charts Are Positive / Overbought: Dow Industrials remains positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 16,095 and its 200-week SMA at 12,779 with a momentum (12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic) reading at 91.03. The S&P 500 is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 1803.8 and its 200-week SMA at 1372.1 with a momentum reading at 93.70. The Nasdaq is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 4051 and its 200-week SMA at 2920 with a momentum reading at 94.49. Dow Transports is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 7189 and its 200-week SMA at 5319 and a momentum reading at 92.44. The Russell 2000 is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 1133.59 and its 200-week SMA at 825.51 and a momentum reading at 89.36.

    Friday's New Highs: Dow Industrials set its all-time intra-day high at 16,529.01 on Dec. 27 between my semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,490 and 16,775. The S&P 500 set its all-time intra-day high at 1844.89 on Dec. 27 shy of my quarterly risky level at 1853.8. The Nasdaq set its multi-year intra-day high at 4175.36 on Dec.27. The Dow Transports set its all-time intra-day high at 7373.57 on Dec. 27. The Russell 2000 set its all-time intra-day high at 1167.96 on Dec. 26 vs. its quarterly pivot at 1163.21. This week's risky levels are 16,568 Dow Industrials, 1851.9 S&P 500, 4175 Nasdaq, 7383 Dow Transports and 1169.00 Russell 2000. On Jan. 2 I will have new monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels, risky levels and pivots. New annual levels will likely show downside risk of 20% to 25%. The major averages will likely straddle monthly and semiannual pivots. The will likely have quarterly risky levels that limits the first quarter upside to 3.5%.

    Daily Dow: (16,504) My monthly value level is 16,093 with a semiannual pivot at 16,490, the Dec. 27 all-time intra-day high at 16,529.01, and weekly and daily risky levels at 16,568 and 16,833.

    S&P 500 - (1841.1) My monthly and semiannual value levels are 1810.2 and 1743.5 with the Dec.27 all-time intra-day high at 1844.89, and weekly, daily and quarterly risky levels at 1851.9, 1859.2 and 1853.8.

    NASDAQ - (4154) My monthly and quarterly value levels are 4114 and 4025 with the Dec. 27 multi-year intra-day high at 4175.36 and weekly and daily risky levels at 4175 and 4236.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3570) My monthly and quarterly value levels are 3518 and 3477 with the Dec. 27 multi-year intra-day high at 3591.31 and weekly and daily risky levels at 3585 and 3637.

    Dow Transports - (7351) My quarterly, semiannual and monthly value levels are 7205, 7104 and 6941 with the Dec. 27 all-time intra-day high at 7373.57, and weekly and daily risky levels at 7383 and 7495.

    Russell 2000 - (1160.59) My semiannual value level is 1089.42 with monthly and quarterly pivots at 1143.82 and 1163.21, the Dec. 26 all time intra-day high at 1167.96, and weekly and daily risky levels at 1169.00 and 1185.46.

    The SOX - (531.57) Weekly and quarterly value levels are 523.03 and 514.87 with a monthly pivot at 526.74, the Dec. 30 multi-year intra-day high at 532.18, and semiannual and daily risky levels at 533.56 and 535.90.

    Dow Utilities: (489.28) Weekly, monthly and semiannual pivots are 478.49, 479.08 and 481.92 with daily, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 493.89, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

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