Seeking Alpha

Richard Suttmeier's  Instablog

Richard Suttmeier
Send Message
ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
My company:
ValuEngine
My blog:
valuengine.com/ve/ma...
  • A Spaghetti Of Tight Value / Risky Levels And Pivots Spell Choppy Trading. 0 comments
    Jan 1, 2014 11:19 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note reached a new multi-year intra-day high at 3.036% as 2013 ended as the daily chart shows that the rise in yield is overdone with the 21-day SMA at 2.892%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond tested 4.00% on Dec. 30 with its 21-day SMA at 3.890%. The weekly charts favor higher 10-Year and 30-Year yields given weekly closes above their five-week MMA at 2.869% and 3.866% as the rise in yield on the 10-Year is now overdone on its weekly chart.

    10-Year Note - (3.026) Daily, weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 3.062, 3.068, 3.653 with quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 2.628, 2.263, 1.837 and 1.779.

    30-Year Bond - (3.964) Weekly and monthly value levels are 4.038 and 4.505 with daily and quarterly pivots at 3.916 and 3.801 and annual and semiannual risky levels at 3.283, 3.114, 3.107 and 2.624.

    Comex gold has a neutral daily chart with the 21-day SMA at $1223.9 and the June 28 low at $1179.4 which was nearly tested at year end. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $1238.0.

    Crude oil has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $97.93, $96.31 and $99.03 after testing $100.75 on Dec. 27. Oil closed just below its 200-day and the daily chart shifts to negative on a close below the 21-day. The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at $98.06 and the 200-week SMA at $92.43, which was tested on Nov. 27.

    The euro vs. the dollar has a positive daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3717, 1.3621 and 1.3308 with a 2013 high at 1.3892 on Dec. 27. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at 1.3658 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3312.

    Comex Gold - ($1202.5) Daily, weekly and monthly value levels are $1184.0, $1164.6 and $1112.1 with quarterly and annual risky levels at $1385.0, $1710.6, $1747.4, $1818.8 and $1857.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($98.62) My quarterly value level is $93.35 with a weekly pivot at $98.54 and daily, monthly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $100.33, $104.80, $104.97 and $107.52.

    The Euro - (1.3754) Monthly, quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 1.3658, 1.3482, 1.3381, 1.2642 and 1.2216 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.3738 and 1.3751 and annual risky level at 1.5512.

    Daily Charts Are Positive / Overbought: The Dow Industrial Average is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 16,096, 15,904 and 15,294. The S&P 500 is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1807.7, 1788.9 and 1679.3. The Nasdaq is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4076, 4002 and 3639. The Dow Transportation Average is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 7228, 7153 and 6564. The Russell 2000 is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1133.37, 1120.93 and 1034.53.

    Weekly Charts Are Positive / Overbought: Dow Industrials remains positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 16,112 and its 200-week SMA at 12,780 with a momentum (12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic) reading at 91.21. The S&P 500 is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 1805.3 and its 200-week SMA at 1372.1 with a momentum reading at 93.89. The Nasdaq is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 4055 and its 200-week SMA at 2920 with a momentum reading at 95.09. Dow Transports is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 7201 and its 200-week SMA at 5319 and a momentum reading at 92.76. The Russell 2000 is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 1134.27 and its 200-week SMA at 825.53 and a momentum reading at 89.76.

    By The Numbers: New all-time intra-day highs were set on Dec. 31 at 16,588.25 Dow Industrials, 1849.44 S&P 500 and 7410.25 Dow Transports. The Nasdaq set a new multi-year intra-day high at 4177.73 on Dec.31. The Russell 2000 set its all-time intra-day high at 1167.96 on Dec. 26. My new levels look like a bowl of spaghetti. Monthly value levels are 16,327 Dow Industrials and 7327 Dow Transports with a monthly pivot at 1847.0 S&P 500 and monthly risky levels at 4267 Nasdaq and 1200.55 Russell 2000. My quarterly value level is 7086 Dow Transports with quarterly risky levels at 16,761 Dow Industrials, 1896.0 S&P 500, 4274 Nasdaq and 1180.35 Russell 2000. Semiannual value levels are 16,245 Dow Industrials, 1797.3 / 1764.4 S&P 500, 3930 / 3920 Nasdaq, 7245 Dow Transports and 1133.29 / 1130.79 Russell 2000 with a semiannual pivot at 7373 Dow Transports and a semiannual risky level at 16,860 Dow Industrials. Annual value levels show significant downside risks at 14,835 / 13,467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 / 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 / 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 / 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 Russell 2000. Talk about potential volatility.

    Daily Dow: (16,577) Monthly, semiannual and annual value levels are 16,327, 16,245, 14,835 and 13,467 with a weekly pivot at 16,568, the Dec. 31 all-time intra-day high at 16,588.25, and daily, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 16,647, 16,761 and 16,860.

    S&P 500 - (1848.4) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with a monthly pivot at 1847.0, the Dec.31 all-time intra-day high at 1849.44, and weekly, daily and quarterly risky levels at 1851.9, 1858.3 and 1896.0.

    NASDAQ - (4177) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with a weekly pivot at 4175, the Dec. 31 multi-year intra-day high at 4177.73 and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4218, 4267 and 4274.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3592) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3458, 3456, 3078 and 2669 with a weekly pivot at 3584, the Dec. 31 multi-year intra-day high at 3592.00 and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 3620, 3629 and 3714.

    Dow Transports - (7401) Quarterly and annual value levels are 7086, 6249 and 5935 with semiannual, monthly and weekly pivots at 7245, 7376, 7327 and 7383 with the Dec. 31 all-time intra-day high at 7410.25, and daily risky level at 7461.

    Russell 2000 - (1163.64) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1133.29, 1130.79, 966.72 and 879.39 with the Dec. 26 all time intra-day high at 1167.96, and weekly, daily, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 1169.00, 1177.96, 1180.35 and 1200.55.

    The SOX - (535.03) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 523.03, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with daily and quarterly pivots at 535.88 and 536.98, the Dec. 31 multi-year intra-day high at 535.79, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 544.70 and 548.36.

    Dow Utilities: (490.57) Weekly and monthly value levels are 478.49 and 440.53 with daily, quarterly and annual pivots at 489.43, 496.84 and 497.53 and semiannual and annual risky levels at 504.74, 524.37 and 548.70.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

Back To Richard Suttmeier's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.