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The S&P 500 Begins The Year Below My Monthly Pivot At 1847.0.

|Includes:DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE

The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note began 2014 at 3.041% then began to dip but remains above its 21-day SMA at 2.900% with overbought momentum. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond dipped to 3.909% staying above its 21-day SMA at 3.892% but momentum is suggesting a correction down to my quarterly pivot at 3.801%. The weekly charts favor higher 10-Year and 30-Year yields given weekly closes above their five-week MMA at 2.861% and 3.857% as the rise in yield on the 10-Year is now overdone on its weekly chart.

10-Year Note - (2.989) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 3.068, 3.653 with a daily pivot at 3.017 and quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 2.628, 2.263, 1.837 and 1.779.

30-Year Bond - (3.923) Weekly and monthly value levels are 4.038 and 4.505 with daily and quarterly pivots at 3.905 and 3.801 and annual and semiannual risky levels at 3.283, 3.114, 3.107 and 2.624.

Comex gold has a positive daily chart with closes above the 21-day SMA at $1224.1 and the 50-day SMA at $1263.6. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $1242.1.

Crude oil has a negative daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $98.00, $96.22 and $99.04 after testing $100.75 on Dec. 27. The weekly chart shifts to neutral with the five-week MMA at $97.46 and the 200-week SMA at $92.41, which was tested on Nov. 27.

The euro vs. the dollar has a negative daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3721, 1.3619 and 1.3312 with a 2013 high at 1.3892 on Dec. 27. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a close below its five-week MMA at 1.3641 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3311.

Comex Gold - ($1223.5) Weekly and monthly value levels are $1164.6 and $1112.1 with a daily pivot at $1226.3 and quarterly and annual risky levels at $1385.0, $1710.6, $1747.4, $1818.8 and $1857.1.

Nymex Crude Oil - ($95.51) My quarterly value level is $93.35 with daily, weekly, monthly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $98.14, $98.54, $104.80, $104.97 and $107.52.

The Euro - (1.3665) Quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 1.3482, 1.3381, 1.2642 and 1.2216 with a monthly pivot at 1.3658 and daily and weekly risky levels at 1.3758 and 1.3751.

Daily Charts Are Positive / Overbought: Dow Industrials is above 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 16,116, 15,925 and 15,304. The S&P 500 is above 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1809.2, 1790.7 and 1680.7. The Nasdaq is above 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4081, 4007 and 3643. The Dow Transports is above 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 7227, 7158 and 6569. The Russell 2000 is above 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1134.36, 1121.67 and 1035.57.

Weekly Charts Are Positive / Overbought: Dow Industrials are positive / overbought with five-week MMA at 16,085 and 200-week SMA at 12,779 with a momentum (12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic) reading at 90.17. The S&P 500 is positive / overbought with five-week MMA at 1802.1 and 200-week SMA at 1372.1 with momentum at 92.84. The Nasdaq is positive / overbought with five-week MMA at 4049 and 200-week SMA at 2920 with momentum at 94.18. Dow Transports is positive / overbought with five-week MMA at 7178 and 200-week SMA at 5319 and momentum at 91.20. The Russell 2000 is positive / overbought with five-week at 1131.65 and 200-week at 825.46 and momentum at 88.17.

By The Numbers: The S&P 500 closed below my monthly pivot at 1847.0 on Jan. 2 with Dow Transports straddling monthly, and semiannual pivots at 7327, 7376 and 7245. My new monthly value level is 16,327 Dow Industrials with pivots at 1847.0 S&P and 7327 Dow Transports with monthly risky levels at 4267 Nasdaq and 1200.55 Russell 2000. My quarterly value level is 7086 Dow Transports with quarterly risky levels at 16,761 Dow Industrials, 1896.0 S&P 500, 4274 Nasdaq and 1180.35 Russell 2000. Semiannual value levels are 16,245 Dow Industrials, 1797.3 / 1764.4 S&P 500, 3930 / 3920 Nasdaq, 7245 Dow Transports and 1133.29 / 1130.79 Russell 2000 with a semiannual pivot at 7373 Dow Transports and a semiannual risky level at 16,860 Dow Industrials. Annual value levels are 14,835 / 13,467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 / 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 / 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 / 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 Russell 2000. Talk about potential volatility.

Daily Dow: (16,441) Monthly, semiannual and annual value levels are 16,327, 16,245, 14,835 and 13,467 with the Dec. 31 all-time intra-day high at 16,588.25, and daily, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 16,664, 16,761 and 16,860.

S&P 500 - (1832.0) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with a monthly pivot at 1847.0, the Dec.31 all-time intra-day high at 1849.44, and weekly, daily and quarterly risky levels at 1851.9, 1860.7 and 1896.0.

NASDAQ - (4143) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with the Dec. 31 multi-year intra-day high at 4177.73 and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4242, 4267 and 4274.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3564) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3458, 3456, 3078 and 2669 with a weekly pivot at 3584, the Dec. 31 multi-year intra-day high at 3592.00 and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 3639, 3629 and 3714.

Dow Transports - (7288) Quarterly and annual value levels are 7086, 6249 and 5935 with semiannual and monthly pivots at 7245, 7376 and 7327 with the Dec. 31 all-time intra-day high at 7410.25, and daily risky level at 7455.

Russell 2000 - (1150.73) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1133.29, 1130.79, 966.72 and 879.39 with the Dec. 26 all time intra-day high at 1167.96, and weekly, daily, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 1169.00, 1189.97, 1180.35 and 1200.55.

The SOX - (527.75) Semiannual and annual value levels are 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with the Dec. 31 multi-year intra-day high at 535.79, and quarterly, daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 536.98, 539.77, 544.70 and 548.36.

Dow Utilities: (482.88) Weekly and monthly value levels are 478.49 and 440.53 with daily, quarterly, annual, semiannual and annual risky levels at 490.70, 496.84, 497.53, 504.74, 524.37 and 548.70.

To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

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