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Richard Suttmeier
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the... More
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  • Nymex Crude Oil Tests My Quarterly Value Level At $93.35 On Monday. 0 comments
    Jan 6, 2014 5:12 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year declined below this week's pivot at 2.990%. A close below its 21-day SMA at 2.916 shifts the daily chart to positive favoring lower yields. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond is testing its 21-day SMA at 3.896 and its weekly pivot at 3.894%. The weekly chart for the 10-Year note shows that the rise in yield is overdone, with the five-week MMA at 2.882%. The weekly chart for the 30-Year bond is above its five-week MMA at 3.866%.

    10-Year Note - (2.963) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 3.051, 3.653 with a weekly pivot at 2.990 and quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 2.628, 2.263, 1.837 and 1.779.

    30-Year Bond - (3.904) Daily and monthly value levels are 3.996 and 4.505 with a weekly pivot at 3.894 and quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 3.801, 3.283, 3.114, 3.107 and 2.624.

    Comex gold has a positive daily chart with the 21-day SMA at $1224.6 and the 50-day SMA at $1259.7. The weekly chart shifts to positive on a close this week above its five-week MMA at $1244.3.

    Crude oil has a negative daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $97.73, $96.07 and $99.05 and tested my quarterly value level at $93.35 on Monday. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at $96.48 and the 200-week SMA at $92.47, which was tested on Nov. 27.

    The euro vs. the dollar has a negative daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3714, 1.3612 and 1.3320. The weekly chart stays negative with a close below its five-week MMA at 1.3629 with the 200-week SMA at 1.3310 as key support.

    Comex Gold - ($1237.2) Weekly and monthly value levels are $1186.2 and $1112.1 with a daily pivot at $1238.3 and quarterly and annual risky levels at $1385.0, $1710.6, $1747.4, $1818.8 and $1857.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($93.70) My quarterly value level is $93.35 with daily, weekly, monthly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $95.52, $97.46, $104.80, $104.97 and $107.52.

    The Euro - (1.3633) Quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 1.3482, 1.3381, 1.2642 and 1.2216 with a monthly pivot at 1.3658 and daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3676, 1.3886 and 1.5512.

    Daily Charts Remain Positive / Overbought: Dow Industrials is above 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 16,168, 15,965 and 15,323. The S&P 500 is above 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1812.5, 1793.8 and 1683.4. The Nasdaq is above 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4088, 4015 and 3652. The daily chart for Dow Transports shifts to negative on a close below its 21-day SMA at 7233 with the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 7164 and 6575. The Russell 2000 is above 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1137.26, 1123.26 and 1037.62.

    Weekly Charts Are Positive / Overbought: Industrials is above its five-week MMA at 16,158 and 200-week SMA at 12,809 with momentum (12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic) reading at 90.96. The S&P 500 is above its five-week MMA at 1806.4 and 200-week SMA at 1375.4 with MOJO at 91.13. The Nasdaq is above its five-week MMA at 4059 and 200-week SMA at 2929 with MOJO at 91.97. Transports are above its five-week MMA at 7198 and 200-week SMA at 5333 with MOJO at 90.06. The Russell 2000 is above its five-week MMA at 1136.13 and 200-week at 827.85 with MOJO at 88.24.

    The S&P 500 remains below my monthly pivot at 1847.0 with Transports on the cusp of my semiannual pivot at 7245. My monthly value level is 16,327 Industrials with pivots at 1847.0 S&P and 7327 Transports and risky levels at 4267 Nasdaq and 1200.55 Russell 2000. Weekly risky levels are 16,578 Industrials, 1854.2 S&P 500, 4220 Nasdaq, 7476 Transports and 1176.06 Russell 2000. My quarterly value level is 7086 Transports with quarterly risky levels at 16,761 Industrials, 1896.0 S&P 500, 4274 Nasdaq and 1180.35 Russell 2000. Semiannual value levels are 16,245 Industrials, 1797.3 / 1764.4 S&P 500, 3930 / 3920 Nasdaq, 7245 Transports and 1133.29 / 1130.79 Russell 2000 with a semiannual pivot at 7373 Transports and a semiannual risky level at 16,860 Industrials. Annual value levels are 14,835 / 13,467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 / 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 / 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 / 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 Russell 2000.

    Daily Dow:(16,425) Monthly, semiannual and annual value levels are 16,327, 16,245, 14,835 and 13,467 with the Dec. 31 all-time intra-day high at 16,588.25, and weekly, daily, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 16,578, 16,629, 16,761 and 16,860.

    S&P 500 - (1826.8) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with a monthly pivot at 1847.0, the Dec.31 all-time intra-day high at 1849.44, and daily, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1843.8, 1854.2, 1860.7 and 1896.0.

    NASDAQ - (4114) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with the Dec. 31 multi-year intra-day high at 4177.73 and daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4143, 4220, 4267 and 4274.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3527) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3458, 3456, 3078 and 2669 with the Dec. 31 multi-year intra-day high at 3592.00 and daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 3553, 3628, 3629 and 3714.

    Dow Transports - (7234) Quarterly and annual value levels are 7086, 6249 and 5935 with semiannual and monthly pivots at 7245, 7376 and 7327, the Dec. 31 all-time intra-day high at 7410.25, and daily and weekly risky levels at 7330 and 7476.

    Russell 2000 - (1147.16) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1133.29, 1130.79, 966.72 and 879.39 with the Dec. 26 all time intra-day high at 1167.96, and daily, weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 1156.31, 1176.06, 1180.35 and 1200.55.

    The SOX- (523.77) Semiannual and annual value levels are 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with the Dec. 31 multi-year intra-day high at 535.79, and daily, weekly, quarterly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 530.40, 532.43, 536.98, 544.70 and 548.36.

    Dow Utilities:(482.30) Weekly and monthly value levels are 474.55 and 440.53 with daily, quarterly, annual, semiannual and annual risky levels at 484.71, 496.84, 497.53, 504.74, 524.37 and 548.70.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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