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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • Stocks Could Not Hold Their Post-FOMC Gains. 0 comments
    Jan 30, 2012 5:19 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, DIA, QQQ, SPY
    The Dow Industrial Average traded as high as 12,841.95 last Thursday staying below its May 2, 2011 high at 12,876. This week I will be tracking the technicals that would confirm my two bold predictions; that last week's high will be the high for the first quarter, and that the high for the year will be below the 2011 high. The daily chart for the Dow is still overbought so we need daily closes below my quarterly pivot at 12,796 for these predictions to gain credence. The weekly chart for the Dow is also overbought so we need weekly closes below my quarterly pivot at 12,478 to confirm a first quarter high. Last week's highs were; 1333.47 SPX, 2834.30 NASDAQ, 5359.00 Dow Transports, and 800.22 Russell 2000. Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are above quarterly pivots at 12,478, 1305.4 and 2777 with quarterly risky levels at 5448 Transports and 829.03 Russell 2000. The yield on the 10-Year note is below my semiannual pivot at 1.903. Gold nearly tested my quarterly risky level at $1740.9. Crude oil continues to trade around my quarterly pivot at $99.87. The euro versus the dollar is above my semiannual pivot at 1.2980 and its 50-day at 1.3080.

    10-Year Note - (1.896) My daily and annual value levels are 2.087 and 2.502 with my semiannual pivot at 1.903, and weekly, quarterly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.841, 1.687, 1.409 and 1.385.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Comex Gold - ($1737.7) Semiannual, weekly, annual and weekly value levels are $1659.5, $1635.8, $1613.2, $1575.8, $1388.4 and $1559.1 with daily, monthly and quarterly pivots at $1722.8, $1706.7, and $1740.9.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($99.61) Weekly, semiannual and monthly value levels are $96.94, $79.83 and $75.53 with quarterly and daily pivots at $99.87 and $98.59, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $104.84, and $103.58 and $117.00.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Euro - (1.3224) Semiannual, weekly, monthly and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2634, 1.2780 and 1.2499 with daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3367, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Weekly Dow: (12,661) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,210, 8,425 and 8,336 with weekly and quarterly pivots at 12,733 and 12,796, the May 2, 2011 high at 12,876, and daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 12,879, 13,391 and 14,032.

    .

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    S&P 500 - (1316.3) Quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1305.4, 1152.8, 841.7 and 829.9 with a weekly pivot at 1314.1, and daily, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 1338.7, 1331.7, 1363.2 and 1562.9. The May 2, 2011 high is 1370.58.

    NASDAQ - (2817) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2777, 2758, 2698, 2432, 2012 and 1952 with daily, quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 2866, 2849, 2894 and 3232. The May 2, 2011 high is 2887.75.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2462) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2422, 2412, 2300, 2185, 1851 and 1743 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2500, 2471 and 2603.

    Dow Transports - (5345) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4443, 4407 and 3778 with a weekly pivot at 5309, and daily, quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 5392, 5448, 5543, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

    Russell 2000 - (798.81) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 787.77, 646.71, 572.90 and 510.81 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 813.06, 824.46, 829.03, 836.15 and 969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

    The SOX- (413.35) Weekly, quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 394.61, 390.17, 310.48, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 440.06, 423.32 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

    ValuEngine Valuation Model - Stocks are not cheap enough to chase MOJO.
     

    • 64.7% of all stocks are undervalued / 35.3% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
    • All sixteen sectors are undervalued; three are undervalued by double-digit percentages (10.0% / 13.6%). Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. - Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

    ValuTrader Model Portfolio - If you want to learn how to "Buy and Trade" use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

    ETF Weekly - If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

    ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report - In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C The December FDIC report with complete analysis of the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile is now available. I track the continuing slow improvement to the housing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the war.

    ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investment help based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VE Capital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offer to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

    Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist

    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576

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    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

    "I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover."

    Themes: Confirm a top for US equities Stocks: TLT, GLD, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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The Dow Industrial Average is below weekly and quarterly pivots at 12, 000, 000 Predictions, 003 Dow Industrials, 033 shifts the weekly chart to negative with my quarterly pivot at 12, 104 and 802.51 with weekly risky levels at 1406.6 SPX, 104 and the Russell 2000 closed above its weekly pivot at 802.51. Weekly risky levels remain at 1406.6 SPX, 104 Dow Industrials, 1375.7 SPX, 1376.3 SPX, 1376.4 SPX, 1397.0 S P 500, 1406.6 SPX, 200-day SMA, 2011, 210 and May’s risky level at 13, 210. , 2999 NASDAQ, 3002 NASDAQ, 3041 NASDAQ, 3097 NASDAQ, 3097 NASDAQ and 5326 Dow Transports., 3097 NASDAQ and 5326 Dow Transports. , 312. A weekly close below my annual pivot at 1363.2 is negative. , 312. The S P 500 is below my annual pivot at 1363.2 with my quarterly pivot at 1337.7., 338.66 shy of May’s risky level at 13, 354 Dow Industrials, 354 with this week’s pivot at 13, 354., 354. The S P 500 is between my monthly pivot at 1397.0 and weekly risky level at 1415.8. , 491, 491 and S P 500 1210.7, 5000 stocks in SPX, 507, 5228 Dow Transports and 812.71 Russell 2000. , 5229 Dow Transports and 811.00 Russell 2000. This keeps the Bull versus Bear Debate alive and kicking. , 5232 Dow Transports, 5326 Dow Transports and 802.51. , 5385 Dow Transports and 813.56 Russell 2000. , 692 and 12, 775 for the Dow Industrial Average, 794 and 12, 794 and annual value level at 12, 794 and my monthly risky level at 13, 794 with my annual value level at 1, 798 with my annual value level at 12, 944 Indicates Risk To 11, 964 Dow Industrials, 977, 978 Dow Industrials,
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