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Richard Suttmeier
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the... More
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Global Market Consultants
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valuengine.com/ve/ma...
  • The Power Of The Pivots Have Stocks Balanced As We Await The FOMC. 0 comments
    Jan 28, 2014 6:34 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The S&P 500 is between its semiannual value level at 1764.4 and its semiannual pivot at 1797.3. Dow Transports moved back up to between its semiannual pivots at 7245 and 7376. The Russell 2000 moved back above its semiannual pivots at 1130.89 and 1133.29. These moves stabilized the stock market as traders and investors await the FOMC decision of additional tapering.

    Dow Industrials, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 remain below their 50-day simple moving averages while the Nasdaq and Dow Transports rebounded above their 50-day SMAs. Dow Industrials, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are below their five-week modified moving averages providing a longer-term warning. Dow Transports are on top of its five-week MMA.

    My semiannual value levels are 1764.4 S&P 500, 3930 / 3920 Nasdaq with semiannual pivots at 16,245 Dow Industrials, 1797.3 S&P 500, 7245 / 7376 Dow Transports and 1133.29 / 1130.79 Russell 2000 with a semiannual risky level at 16,860 Dow Industrials.

    My quarterly value level is 7086 Dow Transports with quarterly risky levels at 16,761 Dow Industrials, 1896.0 S&P 500, 4274 Nasdaq and 1180.35 Russell 2000.

    Annual value levels are: 14,835 / 13,467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 / 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 / 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 / 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 / 879.39 Russell 2000.

    US Treasury Yields - The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.753%) set a 2014 low at 2.706% on Friday, below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 2.888% and 2.848% with a quarterly risky level at 2.628% and the 200-day SMA at 2.523%. The weekly chart still favors lower yields with its five-week MMA at 2.831% and the 200-week at 2.455%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.676%) set a 2014 low at 3.628% on Monday, below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 3.814% and 3.840% with the 200-day at 3.590%. The weekly chart favors lower with its five-week MMA at 3.793% and 200-week at 3.572%.

    Comex Gold - ($1250.8) has a neutral daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1238.1 and $1238.4 and $1319.4. The weekly chart is positive with its 5-week MMA at $1250.3.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($97.20) has a positive daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $95.08 and $95.72 and $99.03. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA and 200-week SMA at $96.04 and $92.61. My quarterly pivot is $93.35 with the 2014 low at $91.24.

    The Euro - (1.3654) has a positive daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3634, 1.3647 and 1.3368. The weekly chart is neutral with five-week at 1.3628 and 200-week at 1.3312.

    Daily Dow: (15,929) has a negative daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 16,352, 16,159 and 15,449. The weekly chart stays negative with a close this week below the five-week MMA at 16,151 with the 200-week at 12,862. My annual value levels are 14,835 and 13,467 with semiannual and monthly pivots at 16,245 and 16,327, the Dec. 31 all-time intraday high at 16,588.25 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 16,761 and 16,860.

    S&P 500 - (1792.5) has a negative daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1830.8, 1813.0 and 1703.0. The weekly chart stays negative with a close this week below the five-week MMA at 1810.6 with the 200-week at 1382.0. Semiannual and annual value levels are 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with a semiannual pivot at 1797.3, my monthly risky level at 1847.0, the Jan. 15 all-time intraday high at 1850.84, and quarterly risky level at 1896.0.

    NASDAQ - (4098) has a negative daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4164, 4088 and 3721. The weekly chart shifts to neutral with a close this week below its five-week MMA at 4103 and with the 200-week SMA at 2947. My semiannual and annual value levels are 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 4246.55 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4267 and 4274.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3506) has a negative daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3568, 3512 and 3193. The weekly chart will be neutral on a close this week below its five-week MMA at 3519 with the 200-week at 2543. My semiannual and annual value levels are 3458, 3456, 3078 and 2669 with a monthly risky level at 3629, the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 3634.65 and quarterly risky level at 3714.

    Dow Transports - (7278) has a negative daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 7377, 7270 and 6670. The weekly chart stays negative with a close this week below the five-week MMA at 7274 with the 200-week at 5364. My quarterly and annual value levels are 7086, 6249 and 5935 with a semiannual pivot at 7245, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 7327 and 7376 and the Jan.23 all-time intraday high at 7591.43.

    Russell 2000 - (1138.65) has a negative daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1158.92, 1139.54 and 1054.19. The weekly chart will be neutral with a close this week below the five-week MMA at 1144.81 with the 200-week SMA at 832.73. My annual value levels are 966.72 and 879.39 with semiannual pivots at 1133.29, 1130.79, a quarterly risky level at 1180.35, the Jan. 22 all-time intraday high at 1182.04, and monthly risky level at 1200.55.

    The SOX - (527.54) has a negative daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 533.48, 520.80 and 486.30. The weekly chart shifts to neutral with a close this week below its five-week MMA at 528.89 and the 200-week SMA at 410.87. My semiannual and annual value levels are 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with quarterly, weekly and monthly risky levels at 536.98, 544.30 and 544.70, the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 547.92, and semiannual risky level at 548.36.

    Dow Utilities - (495.43) has a neutral daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 490.14, 489.67 and 494.29. The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at 490.42 with the 200-week SMA at 447.57. My monthly value level is 440.53 with quarterly and annual pivots at 496.84 and 497.53 and semiannual and annual risky levels at 504.74, 524.37 and 548.70.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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