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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • The S&P 500 Moved Back Above Its Semiannual Pivot At 1764.4.  0 comments
    Feb 6, 2014 5:46 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The major averages straddle my semiannual pivots at 1764 S&P 500, 7245 Dow Transports and 1133.29 Russell 2000. My quarterly pivot is 7086 on Dow Transports.

    If this week's closes are below the five-week modified moving averages at 16,062 Dow Industrials, 1805.4 S&P 500, 4105 Nasdaq, 7280 Dow Transports and 1142.52 Russell 2000 all five weekly charts will shift to negative confirming the January highs as cycle highs as the equity bubbles start to pop.

    My market call for 2014 is that all five major averages will test their 200-day simple moving averages at 15,483 Dow Industrials, 1710.3 S&P 500, 3751 Nasdaq, 6711 Dow Transports and 1061.17 Russell 2000. The Dow Industrial Average moved below its 200-day earlier in the week.

    My annual value levels are: 14,835 / 13,467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 / 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 / 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 / 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 / 879.39 Russell 2000.

    US Treasury Yields - The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.704%) set a new 2014 low at 2.570% on Monday and remains below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 2.780% and 2.838% with a quarterly pivot at 2.628% and the 200-day SMA at 2.560%. The weekly chart still favors lower yields with its five-week MMA at 2.798% and the 200-week at 2.448%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.670%) set a new 2014 low at 3.525% on Monday and remains below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3.714%, 3.811% and 3.615%. The weekly chart still favors lower with its five-week MMA at 3.759% and 200-week at 3.566%.

    Comex Gold - ($1257.2) has a positive daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1248.5, $1236.5 and $1314.5. The weekly chart is neutral with its 5-week MMA at $1248.2.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($97.32) has a neutral daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $95.44 and $96.20 and $99.34. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA and 200-week SMA at $96.33 and $92.68.

    The Euro - (1.3590) has a neutral daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3600, 1.3649 and 1.3387. The weekly chart is negative with five-week at 1.3599 and 200-week at 1.3312.

    Daily Dow: (15,629) has a negative but oversold daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 16,054, 16,107 and 15,483. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at 16,060 and the 200-week at 12,886. My annual value levels are 14,835 and 13,467 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at 15,986 and 16,245, the Dec. 31 all-time intraday high at 16,588.25 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 16,761 and 16,860.

    S&P 500 - (1773.4) has a negative but oversold daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1807.7, 1809.5 and 1710.3. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at 1805.0 and the 200-week at 1385.0. Annual value levels are 1539.1 and 1442.1 with semiannual pivots at 1764.4 and 1797.3, my monthly risky level at 1832.9, the Jan. 15 all-time intraday high at 1850.84, and quarterly risky level at 1896.0.

    NASDAQ - (4057) has a negative daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4133, 4101 and 3751. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a close this week below its five-week MMA at 4103. My semiannual and annual value levels are 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 4246.55 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4267 and 4274.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3498) has a negative but oversold daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3542, 3524 and 3217. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a close this week below its five-week MMA at 3522. My annual value levels are 3078 and 2669 with semiannual pivots at 3458 and 3456, a monthly risky level at 3639, the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 3634.65 and quarterly risky level at 3714.

    Dow Transports - (7182) has a negative but oversold daily chart with 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 7329, 7272 and 6711. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a close this week below the five-week MMA at 7289. My annual value levels are 6249 and 5935 with quarterly and semiannual pivots at 7086 and 7245, semiannual and monthly risky levels at 7376 and 7412 and the Jan.23 all-time high at 7591.43.

    Russell 2000 - (1103.93) has a negative but oversold daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1144.38, 1139.76 and 1061.17. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a close this week below the five-week MMA at 1142.02. My annual value levels are 966.72 and 879.39 with semiannual pivots at 1133.29, 1130.79, quarterly and monthly risky level at 1180.35 and 1189.18 and the Jan. 22 all-time intraday high at 1182.04.

    The SOX - (526.67) has a negative but oversold daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 531.95, 523.79 and 489.88. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a close this week below its five-week MMA at 525.08. My semiannual and annual value levels are 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with my semiannual risky level at 548.36.

    Dow Utilities - (500.34) has a neutral daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 494.94, 489.56 and 493.47. The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at 493.59. My annual and quarterly value levels are 497.53 and 496.84 with monthly and semiannual pivots at 504.53 and 504.74 with semiannual and annual risky levels at 524.37 and 548.70.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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