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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • The Nasdaq Holds The Key For Confirming Cycle Highs.  0 comments
    Feb 11, 2014 6:39 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLG, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    A close this week for the Nasdaq below its five-week modified moving average at 4110 confirms cycle highs for the five major equity averages. The other four major averages are negative with weekly closes below their five-week MMAs at 16,007 Dow Industrials, 1803.7 S&P 500, 7273 Dow Transports and 1137.41 Russell 2000.

    The Dow Industrial Average began the year at 16,577 and broke below my semiannual pivot at 16,245 on Jan. 23. This shifted the focus to the other four major averages.

    The S&P 500 moved below semiannual pivots at 1779.3 and 1764.4 to a low of 1737.92 on Feb. 5 then cascaded back above 1764.4 and 1779.3 on Feb. 7 and Feb. 10.

    The Nasdaq traded as low as 3969 on Feb. 5 staying above its semiannual value levels at 3930 and 3920 then came all the way back to a week's high at 4148 on Feb. 10 still shy of monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4267 and 4272 which are above the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 4246.55.

    A warning comes from Dow Transports as this average traded as low as 7010 on Feb. 5 then moved above its quarterly pivot at 7086, but could not end last week above its semiannual pivot at 7245.

    My annual value levels are 14,835 / 13,467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 / 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 / 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 / 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 / 879.39 Russell 2000.

    US Treasury Yields - The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.672%) set a new 2014 low at 2.570% on Feb. 3 and remains below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 2.743% and 2.835% with a quarterly pivot at 2.628% and the 200-day SMA at 2.574%. The weekly chart still favors lower yields with its five-week MMA at 2.773% and the 200-week at 2.442%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.654%) set a new 2014 low at 3.525% on Feb. 3 and remains below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 3.686% and 3.802% with the 200-day SMA at 3.626%. The weekly chart still favors lower with its five-week MMA at 3.740% and 200-week at 3.561%.

    Comex Gold - ($1266.8) has a positive daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1254.4, $1238.6 and $1311.9. The weekly chart is positive with its 5-week MMA at $1251.3 and the 200-week SMA at $1,488.8.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($100.13) has a positive daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $96.56 and $96.60 and $99.45. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA and 200-week SMA at $97.04 and $92.75.

    The Euro - (1.3664) has a positive daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3600, 1.3654 and 1.3393. The weekly chart is neutral with five-week at 1.3606 and 200-week at 1.3312.

    Daily Dow: (15,802) is above its 200-day SMA at 15,494 but below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 15,992 and 16,096. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at 16,008 and the 200-week at 12,910. My annual value levels are 14,835 and 13,467 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at 15,986 and 16,245, the Dec. 31 all-time intraday high at 16,588.25 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 16,761 and 16,860.

    S&P 500 - (1799.8) is above its 200-day SMA at 1712.5 but below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 1804.0 and 1809.3. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at 1803.4 and the 200-week at 1388.1. Annual value levels are 1539.1 and 1442.1 with semiannual pivots at 1764.4 and 1797.3, my monthly risky level at 1832.9, the Jan. 15 all-time intraday high at 1850.84, and quarterly risky level at 1896.0.

    NASDAQ - (4148) is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4131 and 4106 with the 200-day SMA at 3759. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a weekly close below its five-week MMA at 4116. My semiannual and annual value levels are 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 4246.55 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4267 and 4274.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3582) is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3544, 3529 and 3225. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a weekly close below its five-week MMA at 3539. My annual value levels are 3078 and 2669 with semiannual pivots at 3458 and 3456, a monthly risky level at 3639, the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 3634.65 and quarterly risky level at 3714.

    Dow Transports - (7171) is below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 7316 and 7272 and above its 200-day SMA at 6722. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at 7271. My annual value levels are 6249 and 5935 with quarterly and semiannual pivots at 7086 and 7245, semiannual and monthly risky levels at 7376 and 7412 and the Jan.23 all-time high at 7591.43.

    Russell 2000 - (1118.73) is below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 1140.54 and 1139.28 and above its 200-day SMA at 1062.98. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at 1136.93. My annual value levels are 966.72 and 879.39 with semiannual pivots at 1133.29, 1130.79, quarterly and monthly risky level at 1180.35 and 1189.18 and the Jan. 22 all-time intraday high at 1182.04.

    The SOX - (538.04) is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 532.24, 525.01 and 490.87. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a weekly close below its five-week MMA at 529.31. My semiannual and annual value levels are 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with semiannual risky level at 548.36.

    Dow Utilities - (506.70) is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 496.79, 490.11 and 493.21. The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at 495.64. My annual and quarterly value levels are 497.53 and 496.84 with monthly and semiannual pivots at 504.53 and 504.74 with semiannual and annual risky levels at 524.37 and 548.70.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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