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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • Transports And Russell 2000 Lag In Reaction To Fed Chief Yellen. 0 comments
    Feb 12, 2014 8:59 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    A close this week for the Nasdaq below its five-week modified moving average at 4124 would still confirm cycle highs for the five major equity averages. This seems less likely with Tuesday's close at 4191. Keep in mind however that last Thursday's close was 4057 well below the five-week at 4110.

    The S&P 500 also closed above its five-week MMA on Tuesday but not Dow Industrials, Dow Transports or Russell 2000. These key levels are 16,007 Dow Industrials, 1803.7 S&P 500, 7273 Dow Transports and 1137.41 Russell 2000.

    My annual value levels are 14,835 / 13,467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 / 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 / 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 / 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 / 879.39 Russell 2000.

    The major averages straddle key semiannual levels at 16,245 Dow Industrials, 1764.4 S&P 500, 3920 Nasdaq, 7245 Dow Transports and 1133.29 Russell 2000.

    A quarterly pivot is 7086 Dow Transports with quarterly risky levels at 16,761 Dow industrials, 1896.0 S&P 500, 4274 Nasdaq and 1180.35 Russell 2000. Dow Industrials tested its monthly risky level at 15,986 while the others did not at 1832.9 S&P 500, 4267 Nasdaq, 7412 Dow Transports and 1189.18 Russell 2000.

    US Treasury Yields - Remember that Federal Reserve policy is designed to keep US Treasury yields low, but they rose in reaction to Yellen's testimony. The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.733%) set a new 2014 low at 2.570% on Feb. 3 and remains below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 2.740% and 2.836% with a quarterly pivot at 2.628% and the 200-day SMA at 2.580%. The weekly chart still favors lower yields with its five-week MMA at 2.773% and the 200-week at 2.442%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.692%) set a new 2014 low at 3.525% on Feb. 3 and is between its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 3.684% and 3.800% with the 200-day SMA at 3.630%. The weekly chart still favors lower with its five-week MMA at 3.740% and 200-week at 3.561%.

    Comex Gold - ($1287.0) traded as high as $1294.4 on some renewed Yellen commodity speculation. Gold is above its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at $1256.2 and $1239.3 with the 200-day SMA at $1311.0. The weekly chart is positive with its 5-week MMA at $1251.3 and the 200-week SMA at $1,488.8.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($100.58) moved above its 200-day at $99.48 on commodity speculation. The weekly chart is positive with five-week MMA and 200-week SMA at $97.04 and $92.75.

    The Euro - (1.3664) has a positive daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3600, 1.3654 and 1.3393. The weekly chart is neutral with five-week at 1.3606 and 200-week at 1.3312.

    Daily Dow: (15,995) is above its 200-day SMA at 15,501 and on the cusp of its 21-day at 15,971 below the 50-day 16,094. The weekly chart stays negative with a close this week below its five-week MMA at 16,007 and the 200-week at 12,910. My annual value levels are 14,835 and 13,467 with monthly pivot at 15,986, a semiannual risky level at 16,245, the Dec. 31 all-time intraday high at 16,588.25 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 16,761 and 16,860.

    S&P 500 - (1819.8) is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1802.9, 1809.55 and 1713.7. The weekly chart shifts to neutral with a close this week above its the five-week MMA at 1803.4 with the 200-week at 1388.1. Annual value levels are 1539.1 and 1442.1 with semiannual pivots at 1764.4 and 1797.3, my monthly risky level at 1832.9, the Jan. 15 all-time intraday high at 1850.84, and quarterly risky level at 1896.0.

    NASDAQ - (4191) is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4132 and 4109 with the 200-day SMA at 3764. The weekly chart stays neutral with a close this week above its five-week MMA at 4124. My semiannual and annual value levels are 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 4246.55 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4267 and 4274.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3622) is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3546, 3532 and 3229. The weekly chart stays neutral with a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 3539. My annual value levels are 3078 and 2669 with semiannual pivots at 3458 and 3456, a monthly risky level at 3639, the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 3634.65 and quarterly risky level at 3714.

    Dow Transports - (7272) is below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 7306 and 7272 and above its 200-day SMA at 6728. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at 7273. My annual value levels are 6249 and 5935 with quarterly and semiannual pivots at 7086 and 7245, semiannual and monthly risky levels at 7376 and 7412 and the Jan.23 all-time high at 7591.43.

    Russell 2000 - (1129.16) is below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 1138.86 and 1139.03 and above its 200-day SMA at 1063.95. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at 1136.93. My annual value levels are 966.72 and 879.39 with semiannual pivots at 1133.29, 1130.79, quarterly and monthly risky level at 1180.35 and 1189.18 and the Jan. 22 all-time intraday high at 1182.04.

    The SOX - (544.86) is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 532.77, 525.71 and 491.42. The weekly chart stays neutral with a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 529.31. My semiannual and annual value levels are 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with semiannual risky level at 548.36.

    Dow Utilities - (511.65) set a new 2014 high at 512.97 on Tuesday and is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 497.64, 490.60 and 493.10. The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at 495.64. My annual and quarterly value levels are 497.53 and 496.84 with monthly and semiannual pivots at 504.53 and 504.74 with semiannual and annual risky levels at 524.37 and 548.70. Utilities are the year-to-date leader up 4.3%.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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