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Richard Suttmeier
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the... More
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  • The Nasdaq Is Below Its Quarterly Risky Level At 4274.  0 comments
    Feb 20, 2014 7:18 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    A day after setting a new multiyear intraday high at 4277.33 on Feb. 18, the Nasdaq has had two daily closes below my quarterly risky level at 4274. The Dow Industrial Average could not recapture its semiannual pivot at 16,245 and closed below its weekly pivot at 16,118. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday between its weekly and monthly pivots at 1826.3 and 1832.9. The Dow Transportation Average could not recapture its semiannual pivot at 7245 but remains above its quarterly pivot at 7086. The Russell 2000 closed below its weekly pivot at 1151.33.

    The Dow Utility Average remains the year-to-date winner up 5.6% followed by the Semiconductor Index (SOX) with a gain of 4.7%. The biggest losers are Dow Transports down 3.5% and Dow Industrials down 3.2%.

    A market drag is Dow Transports as its weekly chart shifts to negative with a weekly close below its five-week MMA at 7269.

    US Treasury Yields - The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.737%) set a 2014 low at 2.570% on Feb. 3 and currently is trading between its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 2.718%, 2.829% and 2.601% with a quarterly pivot at 2.628%. The weekly chart still favors lower yields with its five-week MMA at 2.756% and the 200-week at 2.432%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.709%) set a 2014 low at 3.525% on Feb. 3 and is currently between its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3.668%, 3.786% and 3.647%. The weekly chart still favors lower with its five-week MMA at 3.721% and 200-week at 3.551%.

    Comex Gold - ($1320.4) traded as high as $1332.4 on Tuesday above its 200-day SMA at $1308.1. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are $1270.3 and $1246.3. The weekly chart remains positive with its 5-week MMA at $1276.6 and the 200-week SMA at $1,490.6.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($103.31) has been above its 200-day SMA at $99.64 since Feb. 7 with the 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 98.42 and $97.18. The weekly chart is positive with five-week MMA at $98.64 and the 200-week SMA at $92.92.

    The Euro - (1.3733) has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3637, 1.3651 and 1.3418. The weekly chart is positive with five-week MMA at 1.3650 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3315.

    Daily Dow: (16,041) has a positive but overbought daily chart with 21-day, 50-day / 200-day SMAs at 15,891, 16,106 and 15,531. The weekly chart shifts to positive with a close this week above its five-week MMA at 16,056.

    S&P 500 - (1828.7) has a positive but overbought daily chart with 21-day, 50-day / 200-day SMAs at 1801.4, 1813.1 and 1719.6. The weekly chart shifts to positive with its five-week MMA at 1816.5.

    NASDAQ - (4238) has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4145, 4129 and 3786. The weekly chart remains positive with its five-week MMA at 4163.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3653) has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3564, 3550 and 3248. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 3580.

    Dow Transports - (7141) has a negative daily chart with the index below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 7259 and 7277 with its 200-day SMA at 6756. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a weekly close below its five-week MMA at 7269.

    Russell 2000 - (1149.07) has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1134.84, 1141.04 and 1069.11. The weekly chart is neutral with declining stochastics and its five-week MMA at 1143.80.

    The SOX - (560.02) has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 537.27, 530.42 and 494.22. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 538.91.

    Dow Utilities - (517.96) has a positive but overbought with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 503.84, 493.62 and 492.70. The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at 504.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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