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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • I Am Still Tracking What I Believe Is A Topping Out Pattern. 2 comments
    Feb 2, 2012 7:44 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
    My thesis calling for a market top cannot be confirmed until we have weekly closes below my quarterly pivots at 12,478 Dow Industrials, 1305.4 S&P 500 and 2777 NASDAQ. I will be concerned that my call is wrong given weekly closes above quarterly and annual risky levels at 5448 Dow Transports and 829.03 / 836.2 Russell 2000. I have additional quarterly pivots and risky levels coming into play at 12,976 Dow, 1331.7 SPX, and 2849 NASDAQ, 5543 Dow Transports and 824.46 Russell 2000. Too many levels usually translate into reversal-oriented trading. Fundamentally ValuEngine shows that 63.3% of all stocks are undervalued versus 93.5% on October 4th so stocks are no cheap relative to market uncertainties. The yield on the 10-Year note is influenced by my weekly pivots at 1.841. Gold is trading above my quarterly pivot at $1740.9 with a monthly risky level at $1816.4. Crude oil is below my quarterly pivot at $99.87. The euro vs the dollar is above my semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

    10-Year Note - (1.832) My semiannual pivot is 1.903 with my annual value at 2.502. My weekly and daily pivots are 1.841 and 1.811 with quarterly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.687, 1.347 and 1.385.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Comex Gold - ($1746.0) Semiannual, annual and weekly value levels are $1659.5, $1635.8, $1575.8, $1388.4 and $1559.1 with quarterly pivots at $1725.5 and $1740.9, and daily and monthly risky levels at $1770.8 and $1816.4.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($97.46) Weekly, monthly, semiannual and monthly value levels are $96.94, $85.62, $79.83 and $75.53 with quarterly and daily pivots at $99.87 and $99.68, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $104.84, and $103.58 and $117.00.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Euro - (1.3152) Semiannual, monthly, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2945, 1.2634 and 1.2499 with daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3288, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (12,716) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,557, 8,425 and 8,336 with daily, weekly and quarterly pivots at 12,670, 12,733 and 12,796, the May 2, 2011 high at 12,876, and annual risky level at 14,032.

    .

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    S&P 500 - (1324.1) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 1176.1, 841.7 and 829.9 with daily, quarterly and weekly pivots at 1321.3, 1305.4 and 1314.1, and quarterly, and annual risky levels at 1331.7, 1363.2 and 1562.9. The May 2, 2011 high is 1370.58.

    NASDAQ - (2848) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2777, 2758, 2698, 2512, 2012 and 1952 with daily and quarterly pivots at 2843 and 2849, and annual risky level at 3232. The May 2, 2011 high is 2887.75.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2488) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2422, 2412, 2300, 2280, 1851 and 1743 with daily and quarterly pivots at 2488 and 2471, and annual risky level at 2603.

    Dow Transports - (5343) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4522, 4407 and 3778 with daily and weekly pivots at 5320 and 5309, and quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 5448, 5543, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

    Russell 2000 - (809.66) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 787.77, 662.90, 572.90 and 510.81 with a daily pivot at 807.19, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 824.46, 829.03, 836.15 and 969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

    The SOX- (418.74) Weekly, quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 394.61, 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with a daily pivot at 413.33, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 423.32 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

    ValuEngine Valuation Model - Stocks are not cheap enough to chase MOJO.
     

    • 63.3% of all stocks are undervalued / 36.7% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
    • All sixteen sectors are undervalued; only two are undervalued by double-digit percentages (11.2% / 12.3%). Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. - Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

    ValuTrader Model Portfolio - If you want to learn how to "Buy and Trade" use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

    ETF Weekly - If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

    ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report - In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C The December FDIC report with complete analysis of the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile is now available. I track the continuing slow improvement to the housing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the war.

    ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investment help based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VE Capital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offer to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

    Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist

    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576

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    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

    "I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover."

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Comments (2)
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  • thechaser
    , contributor
    Comments (482) | Send Message
     
    hi richard; i always enjoy your detailed analysis and i will investigate further your products to determine what may best suit my needs;

     

    i take a less TA based view; mine is that these markets are driven for a variety of reasons mainly based in politics and power;

     

    to me, i figure next week is the shoulders to use your TA terminology, the euro been sufficiently pumped back up and the usd index down that the reverse goes into play in order to dampen the enthusiasm and have the reason for Power Elite action by the Fed in mid march; this way the markets can then rally from yet a new upward sloping bottom base of say 1245 or so and get catapulted all the way to 1450 by July/ August;

     

    this insures Obama's re-election and the Power Elite's control over our many facets that will evolve with one, two or maybe three new Supreme Court justices

     

    that's why I believe the market is topping and will top, not because stocks are bad buys, simply because in order to enshrine their political will, they must have the status quo unchanged and for that, they need the imagery of improving economic conditions before the election
    2 Feb 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Augustus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    Thanks you Mr. Suttmeier for the continuing updates.
    2 Feb 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
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