After trading sideways in the first quarter of 2014, the major equity averages has had two strong days in a row, but only the S&P 500 and Dow Transports set new all-time intraday highs on Tuesday at 1885.84 on the S&P 500 and 7645.47 on Dow Transports.
The major average remain between new monthly and quarterly value levels, pivots and risky levels are; 16297 and 16462 on Dow Industrials, 1895.6 and 1853.5 S&P 500, 4446 and 4039 Nasdaq, 7812 and 7407 Dow Transports and 1211.52 and 1169.22 on Russell 2000.
We still have semiannual value levels at 3930 and 3920 on the Nasdaq with semiannual pivots at 16245 Dow Industrials, 1797.3 and 1764.4 S&P 500, 7376 and 7245 Dow Transports, and 1133.29 and 1130.79 on the Russell 2000, and the semiannual risky level at 16860 Dow Industrials. All pivots mentioned have been crossed at least once so far in 2014. The Nasdaq value levels have yet to be tested as the Feb. 5 low was 3968.19.
The week's risky levels are 16710 Dow Industrials, 1913.5 S&P 500, 4365 Nasdaq and 1201.45 Russell 2000 with a weekly pivot at 7531 Dow Transports.
The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 had negative weekly chart profiles at the end of last week with closes below their five-week modified moving averages at 4219 and 1167.72 with declining stochastics. Tuesday's closes were above these key levels, but it's Friday's closes that matter.
The Dow Industrial Average ended last week above its five-week MMA at 16210 with rising stochastics. The S&P 500 held its five-week MMA at 1845.4 at the weekly low last week with overbought stochastics. Dow Transports is above its five-week MMA at 7416 with rising 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics.
If a stock market top is confirmed the risk is to the annual value levels at 14835 and 13467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 and 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 and 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 and 5935 on Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 on Russell 2000.
Dow Industrials: (16533) Daily, monthly, semiannual and annual value levels are 16408, 16297, 16245, 14835 and 13467 with a quarterly pivot at 16462, the Dec. 31 all-time intraday high at 16588.25 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 16710 and 16860.
S&P 500 - (1885.5) Daily, quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1859.6, 1853.5, 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with the April 1 all-time intraday high at 1885.84, and monthly and weekly risky levels at 1895.6 and 1913.5.
NASDAQ - (4268) Daily, quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 4115, 4039, 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with a weekly risky level at 4365, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 and monthly risky level at 4446.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3658) Daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3535, 3456, 3458, 3424, 3078 and 2669 with a weekly risky level at 3747, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 3738.32, and monthly risky levels at 3834.
Dow Transports - (7645) Weekly, daily, quarterly, semiannual, and annual value levels are 7531, 7509, 7407, 7376, 7245, 6249 and 5935 with the April 1 all-time intraday high at 7645.47 and monthly risky level at 7812.
Russell 2000 - (1188.70) Quarterly, daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 1169.22, 1147.52, 1133.29, 1130.79, 966.72 and 879.39, with weekly and monthly risky levels at 1201.45 and 1211.52 and the March 4 all-time intraday high at 1212.82.
The SOX - (595.91) Monthly, daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 581.64, 579.90, 548.36, 507.19, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with the April 1 multiyear intraday high at 595.91 and weekly risky level at 602.78.
Dow Utilities: (528.91) Semiannual, monthly and annual value levels are 504.74, 502.03 and 497.53 with semiannual, quarterly, daily and weekly pivots at 524.37, 528.10, 534.62 and 533.21 and annual risky level at 548.70.
The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.755%) is above the cusp of its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs converged at 2.724%, 2.716% and 2.706%. The weekly chart will favor higher yields given a close this week above its five-week MMA at 2.735% and its 200-week SMA at 2.412%.
The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.605%) remains below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3.624%, 3.646% and 3.713%. The weekly chart is in a tug-of-war with the 10-Year yield with this yield below its five-week MMA at 3.635% and its 200-week SMA at 3.535%.
Comex Gold ($1280.0) is below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1333.2, $1306.5 and $1297.8 even though the chart shows a bullish 'golden cross'. The weekly chart is negative given a close this week below its five-week MMA at $1306.1 with the 200-week SMA at $1494.2.
Nymex Crude Oil ($99.72) flipped below its 21-day, 50-day and 200- day SMAs at $100.01, $99.95 and $99.95. The weekly chart shifts to negative given a close this week below its five-week MMA at $100.03 with its 200-week SMA at $93.71.
The Euro (1.3792) is below its 21-day SMA at 1.3830 and above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3734 and 1.3519. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a close this week below its five-week MMA at 1.3767 with the 200-week SMA at 1.3354.
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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.