Seeking Alpha

Richard Suttmeier's  Instablog

Richard Suttmeier
Send Message
ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
My company:
ValuEngine
My blog:
valuengine.com/ve/ma...
  • Dow Industrials & S&P 500 Ended Last Week With Daily Key Reversal.  2 comments
    Apr 5, 2014 10:32 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The Dow Industrial Average and S&P 500 set all-time highs at the open on Friday at 16631.63 and 1897.28 respectively then closed below Thursday's lows which are key reversal days. The S&P tested its monthly risky level at 1895.6. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 now have negative weekly charts.

    The biggest loser on Friday was the PHLX Semiconductor Index down 2.81% on the day after entering the day with a year-to-date gain of 11.4%. The only winner was Dow Utilities with a 0.36% gain. Utilities overtakes the SOX by a year-to-date score of 8.4% to 8.3%.

    The major average remain between monthly and quarterly value levels, pivots and risky levels at; 16297 and 16462 on Dow Industrials, 1895.6 and 1853.5 S&P 500, 4446 and 4039 Nasdaq, 7812 and 7407 Dow Transports and 1211.52 and 1169.22 on Russell 2000.

    We still have semiannual value levels at 3930 and 3920 on the Nasdaq with semiannual pivots at 16245 Dow Industrials, 1797.3 and 1764.4 S&P 500, 7376 and 7245 Dow Transports, and 1133.29 and 1130.79 on the Russell 2000, and the semiannual risky level at 16860 Dow Industrials. All pivots mentioned have been crossed at least once so far in 2014. The Nasdaq value levels have yet to be tested as the Feb. 5 low was 3968.19.

    The week's risky levels are 16772 Dow Industrials, 1915.8 S&P 500, 4338 Nasdaq, 7678 Dow Transports and 1224.32 Russell 2000.

    To confirm a market top there needs to be simultaneous weekly closes below the five-week modified moving averages at 16256 Dow Industrials, 1850.0 S&P 500, 4203 Nasdaq, 7450 Dow Transports and 1165.28 Russell 2000. Only the Nasdaq and Russell have negative weekly charts.

    If a stock market top is confirmed the risk is to the annual value levels at 14835 and 13467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 and 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 and 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 and 5935 on Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 on Russell 2000.

    Dow Industrials: (16413) Monthly, semiannual and annual value levels are 16297, 16245, 14835 and 13467 with quarterly and daily pivots at 16462 and 16481, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 16631.63 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 16772 and 16860.

    S&P 500 - (1865.1) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1853.5, 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with a daily pivot at 1873.7, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 1897.28, and monthly and weekly risky levels at 1895.6 and 1915.8.

    NASDAQ - (4128) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 4039, 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with a daily pivot at 4147, a weekly risky level at 4338, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 and monthly risky level at 4446.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3539) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3456, 3458, 3424, 3078 and 2669 with a daily pivot at 3560, a weekly risky level at 3695, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 3738.32, and monthly risky levels at 3834.

    Dow Transports - (7571) Quarterly, semiannual, and annual value levels are 7407, 7376, 7245, 6249 and 5935 with a daily pivot at 7569, a weekly risky level at 7678, the April 3 all-time intraday high at 7715.91 and monthly risky level at 7812.

    Russell 2000 - (1153.38) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1133.29, 1130.79, 966.72 and 879.39, with daily and quarterly pivots at 1155.55 and 1169.22, a monthly risky level at 1211.52, the March 4 all-time intraday high at 1212.82 and weekly risky level at 1224.32.

    The SOX - (579.19) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 548.36, 507.19, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with monthly and daily pivots at 581.64 and 584.67, the April 3 multiyear intraday high at 601.40 and weekly risky level at 606.78.

    Dow Utilities: (531.61) Semiannual, monthly and annual value levels are 504.74, 502.03 and 497.53 with semiannual, quarterly and daily pivots at 524.37, 528.10, 532.49, and weekly and annual risky level at 542.83 and 548.70.

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.726%) closed at the convergence of its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 2.732%, 2.713% and 2.715%. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at 2.729% and its 200-week SMA at 2.412%.

    The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.587%) is below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3.619%, 3.640% and 3.718. The weekly chart shows the bond yield between its five-week MMA at 3.631% and its 200-week SMA at 3.532%.

    Comex Gold ($1303.5) is below its 21-day SMA at $1326.0 and between the "golden cross" of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1309.2 and $1296.6. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at $1310.8 and the 200-week SMA at $1494.3. The golden cross is thus in a tug-of-war with the negative weekly chart.

    Nymex Crude Oil ($101.14) is above its converged 21-day, 50-day and 200- day SMAs at $99.93, $100.10 and $100.51. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at $100.33 and its 200-week SMA at $93.71.

    The Euro (1.3702) is below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 1.3821 and 1.3734 and above its 200-day SMA at 1.3526. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at 1.3749 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3353.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Back To Richard Suttmeier's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (2)
Track new comments
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1577) | Send Message
     
    Richard

     

    Good analysis on gold. It looks to me that on Friday gold was completing a turn-around and was restored technically (partially- on the daily, not weekly yet).

     

    Curious, what is the definition of your "Value levels" -as in:

     

    "S&P 500 - (1865.1) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1853.5 ..."
    6 Apr 2014, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Richard Suttmeier
    , contributor
    Comments (166) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If you send me an email to gmcreports@aol.com I will add you to my email list. The stories I write on TheStreet.com explain value levels, pivots and risky levels.

     

    Richard Suttmeier
    813-929-9702
    7 Apr 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.