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Richard Suttmeier
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the... More
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  • Stocks Are Less Undervalued At The Upper End Of Trading Ranges. 0 comments
    Feb 6, 2012 7:46 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, ELX, DIA, QQQ, SPY
    We ended last week with a significant shift in valuations. The percentage of undervalued stocks fell to 57.5% versus 93.5% at the October 4th bottom. Fifteen of sixteen sectors are undervalued, but none by more than 10% and with eleven undervalued by less than 5%. The yield on the 30-Year bond rose by 12 basis points on Friday, which was one factor for deteriorating valuations. My overall neutral zone continues to be between my quarterly pivots at 12,478 Dow Industrials, 1305.4 S&P 500 and 2777 NASDAQ and my quarterly / annual risky levels at 1363.2 SPX, 5448 Dow Transports and 829.03 / 836.15 Russell 2000. The 2011 highs still not tested are; 12,876.00 Dow Industrials, 1370.58 SPX, 5627.85 Dow Transports and 868.57 Russell 2000. The yield on the 10-Year note rose above my semiannual pivot at 1.903. Gold returned to my quarterly pivots at $1725.5 and $1740.9 after setting a new year to date high at $1765.9 with Friday a "key reversal". Crude oil is between its 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages at $94.88 and $99.13. The euro vs the dollar remains above my semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

    10-Year Note - (1.928) My annual value is 2.502 with my semiannual pivot at 1.903, and weekly, daily, quarterly and monthly risky levels are 1.797, 1.719, 1.687 and 1.347.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Comex Gold - ($1727.7) Semiannual, annual and weekly value levels are $1659.5, $1635.8, $1575.8, $1593.9 with quarterly pivots at $1725.5 and $1740.9, and daily and monthly risky levels at $1801.4 and $1816.4.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($97.74) Monthly and semiannual value levels are $85.62 and $79.83 with weekly, daily and quarterly pivots at $97.44, $97.79 and $99.87, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $104.84, and $103.58 and $117.00.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Euro - (1.3141) Semiannual, monthly, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2945, 1.2599 and 1.2499 with daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3250, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (12,862) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,557, 8,425 and 8,336 with daily, weekly and quarterly pivots at 12,788, 12,764 and 12,796, the May 2, 2011 high at 12,876, and annual risky level at 14,032.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    S&P 500 - (1344.9) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 1176.1, 841.7 and 829.9 with daily, quarterly and weekly pivots at 1335.5, 1305.4 and 1329.5, and annual risky levels at 1363.2 and 1562.9. The May 2, 2011 high is 1370.58.

    NASDAQ - (2906) Weekly, Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2815, 2777, 2698, 2512, 2012 and 1952 with daily and quarterly pivots at 2899 and 2849, and annual risky level at 3232.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2529) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2422, 2412, 2300, 2280, 1851 and 1743 with daily and quarterly pivots at 2534 and 2471, and annual risky level at 2603.

    Dow Transports - (5369) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4522, 4407 and 3778 with a weekly pivot at 5396, and daily, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5452, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

    Russell 2000 - (831.11) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 803.62, 662.90, 572.90 and 510.81 with daily and quarterly pivots at 824.46, 824.46 and 829.03, and annual risky levels at 836.15 and 969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

    The SOX- (427.99) Weekly, quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 408.39, 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with a daily and quarterly pivots at 419.84 and 423.32, and annual risky level at 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

    ValuEngine Valuation Model - Stocks are not cheap enough to chase MOJO.
     

    • 57.5% of all stocks are undervalued / 42.5% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
    • Fifteen of sixteen sectors are undervalued; none are undervalued by double-digit percentages, and eleven are undervalued by less than 5.0%. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. - Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

    ValuTrader Model Portfolio - If you want to learn how to "Buy and Trade" use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

    ETF Weekly - If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

    ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report - In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C The December FDIC report with complete analysis of the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile is now available. I track the continuing slow improvement to the housing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the war.

    ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investment help based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VE Capital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offer to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

    Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist

    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576

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    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

    "I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover."

    Stocks: TLT, GLD, ELX, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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