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Richard Suttmeier
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the... More
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  • Stocks Straddle Key Levels Under The ‘Power Of The Pivot'.  0 comments
    Apr 15, 2014 8:45 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    Dow Industrials ended Tuesday above its semiannual pivot at 16245. The S&P 500 is between its semiannual pivot at 1764.4 and its quarterly pivot at 1853.5. The Nasdaq traded above its quarterly pivot at 4039 but closed just below it after nearly testing its semiannual value levels at 3930 and 3920. Dow Transports closed its quarterly pivot at 7407 after trading between its semiannual pivots at 7376 and 7245. The Russell 2000 stayed below its semiannual pivots at 1130.79 and 1133.29.

    The Nasdaq traded to a new 2014 low at 3946 holding its 200-day simple moving average and stayed above semiannual value levels at 3930 and 3920. The Russell 2000 traded below its 200-day SMA at 1106.74 but closed above it.

    All five major averages ended last week below their five-week modified moving averages at 16210 Dow Industrials, 1843.1 S&P 500, 4163 Nasdaq, 7433 Dow Transports and 1154.55 Russell 2000.

    The next confirmation of a significant market top comes given weekly closes below semiannual pivots and value levels at 1764.4 S&P 500, 3920 Nasdaq and 7245 Dow Transports. To pull the market out of this potential Dow Industrials needs to close back above its semiannual pivot at 16245 with the Russell 2000 above its semiannual pivot at 1133.29.

    My market call for 2014 has been that all five major averages would trade down to at least their 200-day simple moving averages now at 15759 Dow Industrials, 1763.6 S&P 500, 3942 Nasdaq, 6982 Dow Transports and 1106.68, which was tested on Monday and Tuesday.

    The downside risk in 2014 is to annual value levels at 14835 and 13467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 and 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 and 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 and 5935 on Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 on Russell 2000.

    Dow Industrials: (16263) Daily, annual value levels are 15927, 14835 and 13467 with semiannual and monthly pivots at 16245 and 16297, a quarterly risky level at 16462, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 16631.63 and semiannual risky level at 16860.

    S&P 500 - (1843.0) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 1800.0, 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with quarterly and weekly risky levels at 1853.5 and 1858.1, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 1897.28, and a monthly risky level at 1895.6.

    NASDAQ - (4034) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 3907, 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with a weekly risky level at 4137, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 and monthly risky level at 4446.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3488) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 3378, 3424, 3078 and 2669 with semiannual pivots at 3456 and 3458, a weekly risky level at 3524, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 3738.32, and monthly risky levels at 3834.

    Dow Transports - (7467) Daily, semiannual, and annual value levels are 7256, 7245, 6249 and 5935 with semiannual and quarterly pivots at 7376 and 7407, a weekly risky level at 7579, the April 3 all-time intraday high at 7715.91 and monthly risky level at 7812.

    Russell 2000 - (1119.49) Daily and annual value levels are 1082.61, 966.72 and 879.39 with semiannual pivots at 1133.29 and 1130.29, a quarterly pivot at 1169.22, weekly and monthly risky levels at 1173.9 and 1211.52 and the March 4 all-time intraday high at 1212.82.

    The SOX - (569.00) Daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 549.52, 548.36, 507.19, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with weekly and monthly risky levels at 579.05 and 581.64 and the April 3 multiyear intraday high at 601.40.

    Dow Utilities: (544.65) Quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual value levels are 528.10, 524.37, 504.74, 502.03 and 497.53, with weekly and daily pivots at 531.06 and 544.32, and annual risky level at 548.70.

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.630%) is below the convergence of its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 2.708%, 2.708% and 2.723%. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at 2.707% and its 200-week SMA at 2.409%.

    The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.462%) is below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3.561%, 3.621% and 3.717% setting a 2014 low at 3.435%. The weekly chart shows the bond yield below its five-week MMA at 3.600% and its 200-week SMA at 3.528%.

    Comex Gold ($1302.9) straddles the "golden cross" of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1318.2 and $1298.7. The weekly chart is neutral with the five-week MMA at $1312.4 and the 200-week SMA at $1494.7. The golden cross continues the in a tug-of-war with the neutral weekly chart.

    Nymex Crude Oil ($103.77) is above its converged 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $101.30, $101.07 and $100.81. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at $101.01 and its 200-week SMA at $93.86.

    The Euro (1.3810) is above its 21-day SMA, 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs at 1.3794, 1.3774 and 1.3562. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at 1.3776 and its 200-week SMA at 1.3362.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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