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Richard Suttmeier
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the... More
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  • Pivots Still Rule As Choppy Trading Continue, To The Upside So Far This Week! 0 comments
    Apr 16, 2014 6:38 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    Dow Industrials is between its semiannual pivot at 16245 and its quarterly pivot at 16462. The S&P 500 is now between its quarterly pivot at 1853.5 and its monthly risky level at 1895.6. The Nasdaq is between its quarterly pivot at 4039 and its weekly risky level at 4137. Dow Transports is above its weekly pivot at 7579 with its quarterly pivot at 7407. The Russell 2000 closed between its semiannual pivots at 1130.79 and 1133.29 with its quarterly pivot at 1169.22.

    The Nasdaq traded as low as 3946 holding its 200-day simple moving average on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 as low as 1095.79 below its 200-day SMA at 1107.45.

    The five major averages straddle their five-week modified moving averages at 16210 Dow Industrials, 1843.1 S&P 500, 4163 Nasdaq, 7433 Dow Transports and 1154.55 Russell 2000.

    To confirm a significant market top requires weekly closes below semiannual pivots and value levels at 1764.4 S&P 500, 3920 Nasdaq and 7245 Dow Transports. To pull the market out of this potential Dow Industrials needs to close back above its semiannual pivot at 16245 with the Russell 2000 above its semiannual pivot at 1133.29.

    My market call for 2014 has been that all five major averages would trade down to at least their 200-day simple moving averages now at 15766 Dow Industrials, 1764.9 S&P 500, 3946 Nasdaq, 6989 Dow Transports and 1107.45 Russell 2000, which were tested this week on Nasdaq and Russell.

    The downside risk in 2014 is to annual value levels at 14835 and 13467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 and 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 and 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 and 5935 on Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 on Russell 2000.

    Dow Industrials: (16425) Daily, annual value levels are 16126, 14835 and 13467 with semiannual and monthly pivots at 16245 and 16297, a quarterly risky level at 16462, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 16631.63 and semiannual risky level at 16860.

    S&P 500 - (1862.3) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 1827.4, 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with quarterly and weekly pivots at 1853.5 and 1858.1, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 1897.28 and a monthly risky level at 1895.6.

    NASDAQ - (4086) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 4019, 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with a weekly risky level at 4137, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 and monthly risky level at 4446.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3533) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 3485, 3424, 3078 and 2669 with semiannual pivots at 3456 and 3458, a weekly pivot at 3524, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 3738.32, and monthly risky levels at 3834.

    Dow Transports - (7592) Daily, quarterly, semiannual, and annual value levels are 7401,7407, 7376, 7256, 7245, 6249 and 5935 with a weekly pivot at 7579, the April 3 all-time intraday high at 7715.91 and monthly risky level at 7812.

    Russell 2000 - (1131.77) Daily and annual value levels are 1108.28, 966.72 and 879.39 with semiannual pivots at 1133.29 and 1130.29, a quarterly pivot at 1169.22, weekly and monthly risky levels at 1173.9 and 1211.52 and the March 4 all-time intraday high at 1212.82.

    The SOX - (567.90) Daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 563.50, 548.36, 507.19, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with weekly and monthly risky levels at 579.05 and 581.64 and the April 3 multiyear intraday high at 601.40.

    Dow Utilities: (548.75) Weekly, quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual value levels are 531.06, 528.10, 524.37, 504.74, 502.03 and 497.53, with daily and annual pivots at 547.14 and 548.70. The January 2008 all-time high is at 555.71.

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.635%) is below the convergence of its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 2.708%, 2.708% and 2.723%. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at 2.693% and its 200-week SMA at 2.406%.

    The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.448%) is below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3.560%, 3.620% and 3.717% setting a 2014 low at 3.435% on Tuesday. The weekly chart shows the bond yield below its five-week MMA at 3.570% and its 200-week SMA at 3.525%.

    Comex Gold ($1303.5) straddles the "golden cross" of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1318.2 and $1298.7. The weekly chart shifts to negative on a weekly close below its five-week MMA at $1310.6 with the 200-week SMA at $1495.0. The golden cross continues the in a tug-of-war with the neutral weekly chart.

    Nymex Crude Oil ($103.81) is above its converged 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $101.52, $101.20 and $100.83. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at $101.57 and its 200-week SMA at $94.00.

    The Euro (1.3815) is above its 21-day SMA, 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs at 1.3794, 1.3778 and 1.3565. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at 1.3784 and its 200-week SMA at 1.3369.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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