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  • Beware Of A Potential “Melt-Up” As The Second Quarter Comes To An End.  0 comments
    Jun 7, 2014 11:30 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The Dow industrial Average ended the week above its semiannual pivot at 16860 which makes the quarterly pivot at 1169.22 on the Russell 2000 as the next key barrier.

    If the Russell 2000 can power above 1169.22 we could see an end of the quarter, end of the half year melt-up to weekly / monthly risky levels at 17202 and 17471 Dow Industrials, 1981.8 and 2020.7 S&P 500, 4340 and 4532 Nasdaq, 8414 and 8463 Dow Transports and 1213.68 Russell 2000.

    If Dow industrials falls back below 16860 with the Russell 2000 falling below a weekly pivot at 1153.22 then lower pivots come back into play with new monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels still to be calculated for the second half of 2014.

    New all-time highs or multiyear highs were set on Friday at 16924.28 Dow Industrials, 1949.44 S&P 500, 3795.14 Nasdaq 100, 8210.07 Dow Transports and 618.49 on the PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX). The laggards vs. recent highs are Nasdaq with its March 7 high at 4371.71, the Russell 2000 with its March 4 high at 1212.82 and Dow Utilities with its all-time high at 558.29 wet on April 30.

    When I look at where new monthly, quarterly and semiannual levels are likely to be, the projections are that the major averages will have new risky levels at which to sell on strength.

    All five major equity averages ended last week above their five-week modified moving averages at 16575 Dow Industrials, 1895.2 S&P 500, 4186 Nasdaq, 7866 Dow Transports and 1136.46 Russell 2000.

    Regardless of the upside potential there is risk to annual value levels in the second half of 2014 at 14835 and 13467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 and 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 and 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 and 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 Russell 2000.

    Dow Industrials: (16924) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 16462, 16245, 14835 and 13467 with semiannual and daily pivots at 16860 and 16866, the June 6 all-time intraday high at 16924.28 and weekly and monthly risky levels at 17202 and 17471.

    S&P 500 - (1949.4) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1853.5, 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with a daily pivot at 1948.0, the June 6 all-time intraday high at 1949.44 and weekly and monthly risky levels at 1981.8 and 2020.7.

    NASDAQ - (4321) Daily, quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 4291, 4039, 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with a weekly risky level at 4340, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 and monthly risky level at 4532.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3795) Daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3779, 3456, 3424, 3078 and 2669 with the June 6 multiyear intraday high at 3795.14, and weekly and monthly risky levels at 3842 and 3966.

    Dow Transports - (8210) Quarterly, semiannual, and annual value levels are 7407, 7376, 7245, 6249 and 5935 with the June 6 all-time intraday high at 8210.07 and daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 8240, 8414 and 8463.

    Russell 2000 - (1165.21) Weekly, daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 1153.22, 1142.66, 1133.29, 1130.79, 966.72 and 879.39 with a quarterly pivot at 1169.22, the March 4 all-time intraday high at 1212.82 and monthly risky level at 1213.68.

    The SOX - (617.25) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 548.36, 507.19, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with daily and weekly pivots at 617.90 and 617.90, the June 6 multiyear intraday high at 618.49 and monthly risky level at 621.90.

    Dow Utilities: (550.01) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 528.10, 524.37, 504.74 and 497.53, with an annual pivot at 548.70, and daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 555.06, 553.51 and 557.32 and the April 30 all-time intraday high at 558.29.

    10-Year Note - (2.599) A monthly value level is 2.708 with daily and weekly pivots at 2.572 and 2.563 and quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 2.333, 2.263, 1.837 and 1.779.

    30-Year Bond - (3.441) A monthly value level is 3.492 with a daily pivot at 3.417 and weekly, quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 3.356. 3.305, 3.283, 3.114, 3.107 and 2.624.

    Comex Gold - ($1253.4) Weekly, daily, quarterly and monthly value levels are $1243.6, $1235.9, $1215.7 and $1209.6 with semiannual and annual risky levels at $1710.6, $1747.4, $1818.8 and $1857.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($102.76) Monthly and quarterly value levels are $96.59 and $89.40 with daily and weekly pivots at $101.41 and $101.08, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $104.97 and $107.52.

    The Euro - (1.3664) Weekly, annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3566, 1.3382, 1.3185 and 1.2642 with a daily pivot at 1.3611, and monthly and annual risky levels at 1.3833 and 1.5512.

    The Dollar versus Japanese Yen - (102.52) My annual value level is 93.38 with daily and weekly pivots at 102.59 and 102.58 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 105.97 and 105.66.

    The British Pound - (1.6807) Daily, annual and quarterly value levels are 1.6716, 1.6262 and 1.6123

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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