Seeking Alpha

Richard Suttmeier's  Instablog

Richard Suttmeier
Send Message
ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
My company:
ValuEngine
My blog:
valuengine.com/ve/ma...
  • Are We Facing A Replay Of The March 2000 Tech Bubble? 3 comments
    Feb 17, 2012 6:43 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
    ValuEngine shows that fifteen of sixteen sectors are overvalued ten by double-digit percentages. The Computer and Technology sector is 20.1% overvalued with a PE ratio of 43.3 times. These statistics sounds bubbly to me! Meanwhile trading ranges remain in place. The S&P 500, Dow Transports and Russell 2000 remain below 2011 highs at 1370.58, 5627.85 and 868.57 respectively with the highs for Transports and small caps being all time highs. My overall neutral zone is between my quarterly value levels at 12,478 Dow Industrials, 1305.4 SPX and 2777 NASDAQ and quarterly / annual risky levels at 1363.2 S&P 500, 5448 Dow Transports and 836.15 Russell 2000. The yield on the 10-Year note is back to 2.000% after a test of my semiannual pivot at 1.902. Strength in gold continues to stumble between my quarterly pivots at $1725.5 and $1740.9. Crude oil is above its quarterly pivot at $99.87 as my annual and semiannual risky levels loom at $103.58 and $104.84. The euro vs the dollar tested and held my semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

    10-Year Note - (1.984) My annual value is 2.502 with daily and weekly value levels at 2.055 and 2.038, and annual, quarterly and monthly risky levels are 1.903, 1.797, 1.687 and 1.347.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Comex Gold - ($1730.0) Semiannual, annual and weekly value levels are $1659.5, $1635.8, $1575.8, $1593.9 with daily, weekly and quarterly pivots at $1737.5, $1735.0, $1725.5 and $1740.9 and monthly risky level at $1816.4.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($102.30) Monthly and semiannual value levels are $85.62 and $79.83 with my quarterly pivot at $99.87, and daily, weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $103.88, $104.54, $104.84, and $103.58 and $117.00.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Euro - (1.3137) Semiannual, weekly, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2971, 1.2945, and 1.2499 with daily, and annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3229, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (12,904) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,557, 8,425 and 8,336 with quarterly and daily pivot pivots at 12,796 and 12,887, and weekly and annual risky levels at 13,276 and 14,032.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    S&P 500 - (1358.1) Quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1331.7, 1305.4, 1176.1, 841.7 and 829.9 with a daily pivot at 1356.4, and annual and weekly risky levels at 1363.2, 1391.9 and 1562.9. The May 2, 2011 high is 1370.58.

    NASDAQ - (2960) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2849, 2777, 2698, 2512, 2012 and 1952 with a daily pivot at 2954, and weekly and annual risky levels at 2984 and 3232.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2592) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2471, 2422, 2412, 2300, 2280, 1851 and 1743 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 2599, 2610 and 2603.

    Dow Transports - (5263) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4522, 4407 and 3778 with a daily pivot at 5220, and weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5498, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

    Russell 2000 - (829.96) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 819.06, 662.90, 572.90 and 510.81 with quarterly pivots at 824.46 and 829.03, and weekly, and annual risky levels at 843.28, 836.15 and 969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

    The SOX- (435.88) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 423.32, 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with a daily pivot at 431.79, and weekly and annual risky levels at 444.44 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

    ValuEngine Valuation Model - Sectors have shifted to Overvalued from Undervalued.
     

    • 53.6% of all stocks are undervalued / 46.4% of all stocks are overvalued. Back on October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
    • Fifteen of sixteen sectors are overvalued; ten are overvalued by double-digit percentages. (10.4% OV to 20.1% OV) Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. -
    • PE Ratios range from 16 times for Multi-Sector Conglomerates to 43.3 times for Computer and Technology.
    • Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

    ValuTrader Model Portfolio - If you want to learn how to "Buy and Trade" use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

    ETF Weekly - If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

    ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report - In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C The January FDIC Report shows up-to-date analysis of the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile is now available. I track the continuing slow improvement to the housing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the war.

    ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investment help based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VE Capital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offer to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

    Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist

    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576

    To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe?

    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

    "I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover."

Back To Richard Suttmeier's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (3)
Track new comments
  • SeekingTruth
    , contributor
    Comments (1202) | Send Message
     
    All the warning signals are there, and well stated.
    Richard, question:
    When you give four numbers to three risky or value levels, how does one interpret and apply the last two of the four numbers stated ?
    I can guess, but would rather get the true facts from you on this question.
    Thanks in advance.
    17 Feb 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Richard Suttmeier
    , contributor
    Comments (166) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Once you trade below a value level there is usually a lower value level and vice versa.
    18 Feb 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • SeekingTruth
    , contributor
    Comments (1202) | Send Message
     
    Richard,
    Thanks for your reply.
    It removes any mystery and uncertainty from my mind.
    18 Feb 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.