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Richard Suttmeier
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the... More
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Global Market Consultants
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  • Higher Yields / Oil Will End Stock Market Rally. 0 comments
    Feb 22, 2012 8:31 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
    A higher 30-Year bond yield is a drag on equity valuations, and higher oil prices are a tax on the US economy. While the Dow Industrials tested 13K, the Dow Transports was in the process of a 100 point decline to a test of its 50-day simple moving average at 5141. The Dow Transports and Russell 2000 remain below their all time highs set in 2011 at 5627.85 and 868.57 set on July 11, 2011 and May 2, 2011 respectively. I have weekly risky levels across the major equity averages, which can stretch the rally further this week; 13,027 Dow Industrials, 1371.6 SPX, 3005 NASDAQ, 5389 Dow Transports, and 838.73 Russell 2000. My overall neutral zone is between quarterly pivots at 12,478 Dow Industrials, 1305.4 SPX and 2777 NASDAQ and quarterly / annual risky levels at 1363.2 S&P 500, 5448 Dow Transports and 836.15 Russell 2000. The yield on the 10-Year note remains above 2.0%. Gold is above my quarterly pivots at $1725.5 and $1740.9. Crude oil traded is above my annual and semiannual pivots at $103.58 and $104.84. The euro vs the dollar is well above my semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

    10-Year Note - (2.057) My annual value is 2.502 with a daily pivot at 2.010, and annual, weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels are 1.903, 1.874, 1.687 and 1.347.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Comex Gold - ($1761.0) Daily, semiannual, annual and weekly value levels are $1732.3, $1659.5, $1635.8, $1575.8, $1593.9 with quarterly and weekly pivots at $1725.5, $1740.9 and $7152.1 and monthly risky level at $1816.4.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($105.50) Weekly, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $100.50, $99.87, $85.62 and $79.83 with semiannual, annual and daily pivots at $104.84, $103.58 and $105.29, and annual risky level at $117.00.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Euro - (1.3242) Daily, semiannual, weekly, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.3096, 1.2980, 1.2982, 1.2945, and 1.2499 with annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.4239 and 1.4405.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (12,966) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,557, 8,425 and 8,336 with quarterly and daily pivot pivots at 12,796 and 12,896, and weekly and annual risky levels at 13,027 and 14,032.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    S&P 500 - (1362.2) Quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1331.7, 1305.4, 1176.1, 841.7 and 829.9 with daily and annual pivots at 1357.5 and 1363.2, and annual and weekly risky levels at 1371.6 and 1562.9. The May 2, 2011 high is 1370.58.

    NASDAQ - (2949) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2849, 2777, 2698, 2512, 2012 and 1952 with a daily pivot at 2955, and weekly and annual risky levels at 3005 and 3232.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2590) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2471, 2422, 2412, 2300, 2280, 1851 and 1743 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 2603, 2635 and 2603.

    Dow Transports - (5163) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4522, 4407 and 3778 with a daily pivot at 5185, and weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5389, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

    Russell 2000 - (823.20) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 816.67, 662.90, 572.90 and 510.81 with quarterly pivots at 824.46 and 829.03, and weekly, and annual risky levels at 838.73, 836.15 and 969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

    The SOX- (426.00) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 423.32, 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with a daily pivot at 425.68, and weekly and annual risky levels at 445.39 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

    ValuEngine Valuation Model - Sectors have shifted to Overvalued from Undervalued.
     

    • 53.5% of all stocks are undervalued / 46.5% of all stocks are overvalued. Back on October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
    • Fifteen of sixteen sectors are overvalued; eleven are overvalued by double-digit percentages. (10.0% OV to 19.0% OV) Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. -
    • PE Ratios range from 16.1 times for Multi-Sector Conglomerates to 42.8 times for Computer and Technology.
    • Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

    ValuTrader Model Portfolio - If you want to learn how to "Buy and Trade" use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

    ETF Weekly - If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

    ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report - In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C The January FDIC Report shows up-to-date analysis of the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile is now available. I track the continuing slow improvement to the housing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the war.

    ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investment help based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VE Capital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offer to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

    Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist

    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576

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    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

    "I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover."

    Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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