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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • Stocks Continue To Slowly Inflate, But Buyers Beware! 1 comment
    Feb 29, 2012 4:47 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
    Stocks are obviously resilient but my "Pop then Drop" prediction has been slow to develop. The NASDAQ is the upside leader approaching 3000 with my weekly risky level at 3101. Dow Transports are a laggard closing Tuesday below its 50-day simple moving average at 5171 and well below its July 7th all time high at 5627.85. In-between these extremes are differing dynamics; The Dow Industrial Average had been reluctant to close above 13K until Tuesday, but reaching this week's risky level at 13,281 appears a stretch. The S&P 500 has inched its way above its 2011 high, but my annual pivot at 1363.2 has been a magnet holding back strength to its weekly risky level at 1404.4. The Russell 2000 is being held back by quarterly and annual pivots at 824.46 and 829.03, and 836.15 with its May 2nd all time high at 868.57. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is above its 50-day simple moving average at 1.939 after testing my semiannual pivot at 1.903. Gold remains set a new year to date high at $1792.7 with my monthly risky level at $1816.4. The euro vs the dollar shows a daily risky level at 1.3579.

    10-Year Note - (1.924) My annual value is 2.502 with weekly and daily pivots at 2.034 and 2.027, and annual, weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 1.903, 1.874, 1.687 and 1.347.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Comex Gold - ($1786.3) Quarterly, semiannual, annual and weekly value levels are $1725.5, $1740.9, $1659.5, $1635.8, $1575.8, $1593.9 with daily, monthly and weekly risky levels at $1801.2, $1816.4 and $1854.4.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($106.65) Weekly, semiannual, annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $105.24, $104.84, $103.58, $99.87, $85.62 and $79.83 with daily and annual risky levels at $110.43 and $117.00.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Euro - (1.3464) Weekly, semiannual, weekly, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.3193, 1.2980, 1.2945, and 1.2499 with daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3579, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (13,005) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,557, 8,425 and 8,336 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 13,156, 13,281 and 14,032.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    S&P 500 - (1372.2) Quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1331.7, 1305.4, 1176.1, 841.7 and 829.9 with my annual pivot at 1363.2, daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 1385.7, 1404.4 and 1562.9.

    NASDAQ - (2987) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2849, 2777, 2698, 2512, 2012 and 1952 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 3007, 3101 and 3232.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2633) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2471, 2422, 2412, 2300, 2280, 1851 and 1743 with my annual pivot at 2603, and daily and weekly risky levels at 2648 and 2721.

    Dow Transports - (5165) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4522, 4407 and 3778 with a daily pivot at 5176, and weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5427, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

    Russell 2000 - (823.81) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 662.90, 572.90 and 510.81 with quarterly pivots at 824.46 and 829.03, and daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 836.90, 864.51, 836.15 and 969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

    The SOX- (430.99) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 423.32, 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with my daily pivot at 430.67, and weekly and annual risky levels at 460.92 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

    ValuEngine Valuation Model - Sectors have shifted to Overvalued from Undervalued.
     

    • 56.1% of all stocks are undervalued / 43.9% of all stocks are overvalued. Back on October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
    • Fifteen of sixteen sectors are overvalued; eleven are overvalued by double-digit percentages. (10.0% OV to 19.7% OV) Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. -
    • PE Ratios range from 16.2 times for Multi-Sector Conglomerates to 43.3 times for Computer and Technology.
    • Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

    ValuTrader Model Portfolio - If you want to learn how to "Buy and Trade" use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

    ETF Weekly - If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

    ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report - In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C I am in the process of dissecting the Q4 2011 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. I track the continuing slow improvement to the housing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the woods.

    ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investment help based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VE Capital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offer to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

    Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist

    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576

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    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

    "I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover."

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Comments (1)
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  • Bulls are encouraged by the perceived fair valuations and Bears are concerned about the Overbought technical's, and EVERYONE is concerned about the geopolitical's.

     

    That's one for the Bulls and two for the Bears.

     

    So it looks like it is coming down to possible serious missteps at home and/or abroad and the next earnings reports for anything of any major magnitude to take place although a 4 to 7 % downdraft could happen at any time (SOP).
    But an earthquake can cause serious damage to a wall of worry.
    How high on that wall do we want to be?
    29 Feb 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
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