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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • Weekly Key Reversal For Gold As Stock Ranges Hold 0 comments
    Mar 5, 2012 5:38 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
    We begin March with the same neutral zone; my quarterly value levels are 12,478 Dow Industrials, 1305.4 SPX and 2777 NASDAQ with an annual pivot at 1363.2 S&P 500, and quarterly / annual risky levels at 5448 Dow Transports and 836.15 Russell 2000. This month's value levels are 11,903 Dow Industrials, 1222.5 SPX, 2651 NASDAQ, 4470 Dow Transports and 684.13 Russell 2000. This week's risky levels are 13,274 Dow Industrials, 1405.4 SPX, 3102 NASDAQ, 5403 Dow Transports and 861.98 Russell 2000. We can see new highs for the move for Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, but Dow Transports and Russell 2000 should continue to lag well behind their all time highs set at 5627.85 Dow Transports on July 7th and at 868.57 Russell 2000 on May 2nd. It is possible that Transports and small caps drag down Industrials, SPX and NASDAQ. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury failed at my semiannual risky level at 1.903. Gold closed below $1727.0 defining a weekly key reversal. Watch for the potential gold "death cross" with the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1687.1 and $1672.0. Crude oil tested my semiannual pivot at $104.84 at last week's low. The euro versus the dollar has a weekly risky level at 1.3534 with risk to my semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

    10-Year Note - (1.984) My annual value is 2.502 with a weekly pivot at 1.956 and daily, annual, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1.900, 1.903, 1.874 and 1.687.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Comex Gold - ($1712.9) Semiannual, annual and weekly value levels are $1659.5, $1635.8, $1575.8, $1593.9 with daily and quarterly pivots at $1734.4 and $1740.0, and weekly and monthly risky levels at $1808.4 and $1888.4. Last week was a "key reversal".

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($106.67) Semiannual, annual, weekly, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $104.84, $103.58, $102.74, $99.87, $97.96 and $79.83 with daily and annual risky levels at $109.48 and $117.00.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Euro - (1.3200) Semiannual, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2622, and 1.2499 with daily, weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3412, 1.3534, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (12,978) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,903, 8,425 and 8,336 with a daily pivot at 12,986, and weekly and annual risky levels at 13,274 and 14,032.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    S&P 500 - (1369.6) Quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1305.4, 1222.5, 841.7 and 829.9 with annual and daily pivots at 1363.2 and 1372.4, and weekly and annual risky levels at 1405.4 and 1562.9.

    NASDAQ - (2976) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2777, 2698, 2651, 2012 and 1952 with a daily pivot at 2988, and weekly and annual risky levels at 3102 and 3232.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2642) Monthly, quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2428, 2422, 2300, 1851 and 1743 with annual and daily pivots at 2603 and 2647, and weekly risky level at 2715.

    Dow Transports - (5160) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4470, 4407 and 3778 with a daily pivot at 5158, and weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5403, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

    Russell 2000 - (802.43) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 684.13, 572.90 and 510.81 with daily and quarterly pivots at 811.06, 824.46 and 829.03, and annual and weekly risky levels at 836.15 and 861.98. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

    The SOX- (420.35) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with a daily pivot at 422.31, and weekly and annual risky levels at 460.92 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

    ValuEngine Valuation Model - Sectors have shifted to Overvalued from Undervalued.
     

    • 57.5% of all stocks are undervalued / 42.5% of all stocks are overvalued. Back on October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
    • Fifteen of sixteen sectors are overvalued; nine are overvalued by double-digit percentages. (10.2% OV to 19.6% OV) Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. -
    • PE Ratios range from 15.7 times for Multi-Sector Conglomerates to 42.5 times for Computer and Technology.
    • Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

    ValuTrader Model Portfolio - If you want to learn how to "Buy and Trade" use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

    ETF Weekly - If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

    ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report - In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C I am in the process of dissecting the Q4 2011 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. I track the continuing slow improvement to the housing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the woods.

    ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investment help based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VE Capital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offer to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

    Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist

    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576

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    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

    "I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover."

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