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Richard Suttmeier
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the... More
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Global Market Consultants
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  • Today’s Fed Statement Will Not Alter The Trading Environment. 0 comments
    Mar 13, 2012 6:01 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
    In 2011 Dow Transports and the Russell 2000 led stocks higher by setting new all time highs, but so far in 2012 these key averages are lagging those highs, while the other major averages are trading above their 2011 highs. The Russell 2000 set an all time high at 868.57 on May 2, 2011 then declined 30.7% to 601.71 on October 4th. So far in 2012 the small cap index is up a solid 9.9%, but it's well below that all time high. Compare this to the NASDAQ which traded as high as 3000.11 on February 29th 3.9% above its May 2, 2011 high at 2887.75. The Dow Transports set an all time high at 5627.85 on July 7, 2011 then declined 29.8% to 3950.66 on October 4th. So far in 2012 Transports are up just 2.5%, and is well below that all time high. Compare this to the Dow Industrial Average which trade as high as 13,055.75 on February 29th 1.4% above its May 2, 2011 high at 12,876.00. Weekly closes above my annual pivot at 1363.2 SPX indicates strength to weekly risky levels at; 13,311 Dow Industrials, 1412.6 SPX, 3130 NASDAQ, 5293 Dow Transports and 829.03 / 836.15 Russell 2000. This week's value level for the 10-Year Treasury is 2.097. My quarterly pivot is $1740.9 for Gold. This week's pivot is $107.27 for Crude oil. The euro versus the dollar is above its semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

    10-Year Note - (2.030) Daily, weekly and annual values are 2.036, 2.097 and 2.502 with annual, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1.903, 1.874 and 1.687.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Comex Gold - ($1700.7) Semiannual and annual value levels are $1659.5, $1635.8 and $1575.8 with a daily pivot at $1704.7, and quarterly, weekly and monthly risky levels at $1740.9, $1808.4 and $1888.4.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($106.38) Semiannual, annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $104.84, $103.58, $99.87, $97.96 and $79.83 with daily and weekly pivots at $106.62 and $107.27 and my annual risky level at $117.00.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Euro - (1.3151) Daily, semiannual, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.3050, 1.2980, 1.2622, and 1.2499 with weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3650, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (12,960) Daily, quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,885, 12,478, 12,312, 11,903, 8,425 and 8,336 with weekly and annual risky levels at 13,311 and 14,032.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    S&P 500 - (1371.1) Daily, annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1363.9, 1363.2, 1305.4, 1222.5, 841.7 and 829.9, and weekly and annual risky levels at 1412.6 and 1562.9.

    NASDAQ - (2984) Daily, quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2964, 2777, 2698, 2651, 2012 and 1952 with weekly and annual risky levels at 3130 and 3232.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2647) Daily, annual, monthly, quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2638, 2603, 2428, 2422, 2300, 1851 and 1743 with my weekly risky level at 2761.

    Dow Transports - (5144) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 5117, 4470, 4407 and 3778 with weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5293, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

    Russell 2000 - (814.30) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 801.57, 684.13, 572.90 and 510.81 with quarterly pivots at 824.46 and 829.03, and annual and weekly risky levels at 836.15 and 862.39. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

    The SOX- (418.57) Daily, quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 409.46, 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with weekly and annual risky levels at 460.47 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

    ValuEngine Valuation Model: Monthly benchmark revisions are favorable for stocks.
     

    • 56.0% of all stocks are undervalued / 44.0% of all stocks are overvalued. Back on October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
    • Fourteen of sixteen sectors are overvalued; three by double-digit percentages. Computers & Technology by 15.6%, Retail-Wholesale by 13.2% and Finance is 12.0% OV. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%.
    • Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

    ValuTrader Model Portfolio - If you want to learn how to "Buy and Trade" use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

    ETF Weekly - If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

    ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report - In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C My special report dissecting the Q4 2011 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile was posted on March 7th. I track the continuing slow improvement to the housing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the woods.

    ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investment help based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VE Capital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offer to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

    Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist

    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576

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    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

    "I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover."

    Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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