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  • The Russell 2000 Is Back Above My Annual Pivot At 836.15. 0 comments
    Mar 27, 2012 3:42 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
    The Russell 2000 closed above my annual pivot at 836.15 a week ago Monday but failed to stay above this key level. Will this week be the charm? Lagging further is the Dow Transports, which remains the only major average below its quarterly risky level at 5448. The upside for the week is to my weekly risky levels at; 13,315 Dow Industrials, 1428.9 SPX, 3157 NASDAQ and 847.77 Russell 2000. Keep in mind that Dow Transports and Russell 2000 continue to lag 2011 all time highs at 5627.85 set on July 7th and 868.57 set on May 2nd. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury remains above its 200-day simple moving average at 2.195 and is influenced by my weekly pivot at 2.248, which was a magnet on Monday. Gold got back above its 200-day SMA at $1683.5 after seven days below that key level. Crude oil remains above my annual pivot at $103.58 with this week's risky level at $110.42. The euro versus the dollar is influenced by this week's pivot at 1.3201, which held on Monday.

    10-Year Note - (2.239) Daily and annual value levels are 2.294 and 2.502 with a weekly pivot at 2.248, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 1.903 and 1.687.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Comex Gold - ($1691.8) My annual value level is $1575.8 with daily, weekly and semiannual pivots at $1683.4, $1675.7, $1659.5 and $1635.8, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1740.9 and $1888.4.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($107.10) Annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $103.58, $99.87, $97.96 and $79.83 with semiannual and daily pivots at $104.84 and $107.55, and weekly and annual risky levels at $110.42 and $117.00.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Euro - (1.3361) Semiannual, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2622, and 1.2499 with my weekly pivot at 1.3201, and daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3440, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (13,241) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,903, 8,425 and 8,336 with a daily pivot at 13,168, and weekly and annual risky levels at 13,315 and 14,032.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    S&P 500 - (1416.5) Annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1363.2, 1305.4, 1222.5, 841.7 and 829.9 with a daily pivot at 1416.3, and weekly and annual risky levels at 1428.9 and 1562.9.

    NASDAQ - (3123) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2777, 2698, 2651, 2012 and 1952 with a daily pivot at 3118, and weekly and annual risky levels at 3157 and 3232.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2778) Annual, monthly, quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2603, 2428, 2422, 2300, 1851 and 1743 with a daily pivot at 2770, and weekly risky level at 2810.

    Dow Transports - (5289) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 5124, 4470, 4407 and 3778 with daily, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5419, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011. A weekly close below its five-week modified moving average at 5121 shifts the weekly chart to negative.

    Russell 2000 - (846.11) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 684.13, 572.90 and 510.81 with daily, quarterly and annual pivots at 843.73, 829.03 and 836.15, and weekly risky level at 847.77. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

    The SOX- (441.89) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 447.99, 443.09 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

    ValuEngine Valuation Model:
     

    • 48.3% of all stocks are undervalued / 51.7% of all stocks are overvalued. Back on October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
    • Fifteen of sixteen sectors are overvalued; four by double-digit percentages. Finance is 16.7% OV. Computers & Technology is 21.0% OV. Retail-Wholesale is 18.6% OV. Back in March 2009 all sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%.
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    Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
     

    • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist

    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576

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    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

    "I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover."

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