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Thursday’s Rebound Was Impressive – But Today Is Quarter End!

Mar. 30, 2012 5:34 AM ETTLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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On Monday, my Proprietary Forecasting Model will have new weekly, monthly and quarterly value levels, pivots and risky levels based upon today's market closes. Existing semiannual levels are well below the market, but the more important annual levels will remain in play. My overall neutral zone is between annual pivots at 1363.2 on the S&P 500 and 836.15 on the Russell 2000. My call is a bearish one, which includes my ongoing prediction that Dow Transports and Russell 2000 will continue to lag their 2011 all time highs at 5627.85 set on July 7th and 868.57 set on May 2nd. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is below its 200-day simple moving average at 2.183. Gold is below its 200-day SMA at 1685.5 with the 50-day at $1708.5, so the risk of a death cross is a focus in the second quarter. Crude oil is below my annual pivot at $103.58 and its 50-day simple moving average at $103.55. The euro versus the dollar is above its 50-day at 1.3206.

10-Year Note - (2.159) Weekly and annual value levels are 2.248 and 2.502 with daily, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 2.104, 1.903 and 1.687.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold - ($1660.3) My annual value level is $1575.8 with daily, weekly and semiannual pivots at $1661.4, $1675.7, $1659.5 and $1635.8, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1740.9 and $1888.4.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil - ($103.22) Quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $99.87, $97.96 and $79.83 with annual, semiannual and daily pivots at $103.58, $104.84 and $103.32, and weekly and annual risky levels at $110.42 and $117.00.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro - (1.3296) Weekly, semiannual, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.3201, 1.2980, 1.2622, and 1.2499 with daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3314, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (13,146) Daily, quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 13,045, 12,478, 12,312, 11,903, 8,425 and 8,336 with weekly and annual risky levels at 13,315 and 14,032.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 - (1403.3) Annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1363.2, 1305.4, 1222.5, 841.7 and 829.9 with a daily pivot at 1399.0, and weekly and annual risky levels at 1428.9 and 1562.9.

NASDAQ - (3095) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2777, 2698, 2651, 2012 and 1952 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 3104, 3157 and 3232.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2762) Annual, monthly, quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2603, 2428, 2422, 2300, 1851 and 1743 with daily and weekly risky levels at 2776 and 2810.

Dow Transports - (5256) Daily, weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 5172, 5124, 4470, 4407 and 3778 with quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011. A weekly close below its five-week modified moving average at 5212 shifts the weekly chart to negative.

Russell 2000 - (832.24) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 684.13, 572.90 and 510.81 with daily, quarterly and annual pivots at 827.92, 829.03 and 836.15, and weekly risky level at 847.77. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

The SOX- (436.83) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with daily and weekly pivots at 436.00 and 443.09, and annual risky level at 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

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Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions

  • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions

  • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Richard Suttmeier
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

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