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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • The Weekly Charts Are Deteriorating – Could End April Bearish! 0 comments
    Apr 14, 2012 10:57 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    Markets in Review: Asian stocks were higher again on Friday. The Nikkei 225 ended their session at 9,638 - up 1.19% on the day. The Hang Seng ended their session at 20,701 - up 1.84% on the day. European stocks were lower on Friday. The FTSE 100 ended their session at 5,652 - down 1.03% on the day. The DAX ended their session at 6,584 - down 2.36% on the day. The CAC 40 ended their session at 3,189 - down 2.47% on the day. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury declined from 2.049 percent to 1.977 below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 2.077 and 2.137. Gold declined from $1679.2 the Troy ounce to $1649.7 staying below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $1696.3 and $1692.0, converging towards a "death cross". Crude oil traded down from $103.90 per barrel down to $102.61 staying below its 50-day simple moving average at $104.22. The euro versus the dollar declined from 1.3199 to 1.3073 staying below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.3211. The Dow Industrial Average declined to 12,845.28 in the final minutes of trading staying below its 50-day simple moving average at 12,995. The NASDAQ's declined to 3010.77 staying above its 50-day simple moving average at 3000.

    Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
     

    1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is between its 50-day simple moving average at 2.077 and my semiannual pivot at 1.903.
    2. Commodities - Gold ended the week above my semiannual pivots at $1659.4 and $1635.8, but below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1696.3 and $1692.0. Crude oil is influenced by quarterly, annual and semiannual pivots at $101.55, $103.58 and $104.84 with my monthly value level at $97.55.
    3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar remains between my semiannual value level at 1.2980 and its 50-day simple moving average at 1.3211.
    4. Equities - Friday's closes straddled five-week modified moving averages, which is an important negative for stocks. Below the five-week MMA are; 12,964 Dow Industrials, 1375.7 SPX, 5228 Dow Transports and 812.71 Russell 2000. Transports and small caps have declining weekly MOJO so they are downside leaders, which supports my prediction that Transports and Russell 2000 will stay below their 2011 all time highs at 5627.85 on July 7th and 868.57 on May 2nd. The key next week will be the NASDAQ closing above or below its five-week MMA at 3003. A weekly close on the S&P 500 below my annual pivot at 1363.2 would be another negative for stocks.
    5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks are reasonably priced with 63.3% of all stocks undervalued with six undervalued sectors and ten overvalued sectors. Aerospace is 12.4% UV with Computer & Technology 12.3% OV, Medical 16.0% OV, and Retail-Wholesale is 11.7% OV.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

    Themes: Friday’s closes straddled five-week modified moving averages, which is an important negative for stocks. Below the five-week MMA are; 12, 964 Dow Industrials, 1375.7 SPX, 5228 Dow Transports and 812.71 Russell 2000. Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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The Dow Industrial Average is below weekly and quarterly pivots at 12, 000, 000 Predictions, 003 Dow Industrials, 033 shifts the weekly chart to negative with my quarterly pivot at 12, 104 and 802.51 with weekly risky levels at 1406.6 SPX, 104 and the Russell 2000 closed above its weekly pivot at 802.51. Weekly risky levels remain at 1406.6 SPX, 104 Dow Industrials, 1375.7 SPX, 1376.3 SPX, 1376.4 SPX, 1397.0 S P 500, 1406.6 SPX, 200-day SMA, 2011, 210 and May’s risky level at 13, 210. , 2999 NASDAQ, 3002 NASDAQ, 3041 NASDAQ, 3097 NASDAQ, 3097 NASDAQ and 5326 Dow Transports., 3097 NASDAQ and 5326 Dow Transports. , 312. A weekly close below my annual pivot at 1363.2 is negative. , 312. The S P 500 is below my annual pivot at 1363.2 with my quarterly pivot at 1337.7., 338.66 shy of May’s risky level at 13, 354 Dow Industrials, 354 with this week’s pivot at 13, 354., 354. The S P 500 is between my monthly pivot at 1397.0 and weekly risky level at 1415.8. , 491, 491 and S P 500 1210.7, 5000 stocks in SPX, 507, 5228 Dow Transports and 812.71 Russell 2000. , 5229 Dow Transports and 811.00 Russell 2000. This keeps the Bull versus Bear Debate alive and kicking. , 5232 Dow Transports, 5326 Dow Transports and 802.51. , 5385 Dow Transports and 813.56 Russell 2000. , 692 and 12, 775 for the Dow Industrial Average, 794 and 12, 794 and annual value level at 12, 794 and my monthly risky level at 13, 794 with my annual value level at 1, 798 with my annual value level at 12, 944 Indicates Risk To 11, 964 Dow Industrials, 977, 978 Dow Industrials,
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