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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • Weekly Risky Levels Loom At 1406.6 SPX And 3097 NASDAQ 0 comments
    Apr 27, 2012 5:16 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    Markets in Review: Asian stocks were lower on Friday. The Nikkei 225 ended their session at 9,521 - down 0.43% on the day. The Hang Seng ended their session at 20,741 - down 0.33% on the day. European exchanges were mixed on Thursday, opened lower Friday, but were back towards the flat line at 4:30 AM. The FTSE 100 ended Thursday at 5,749 - up 0.52% on the day. The DAX ended Thursday at 6,740 - up 0.53% on the day. The CAC 40 ended Thursday at 3,229 - down 0.13% on the day. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury declined to 1.881 overnight just below my semiannual pivot at 1.903. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 388,000 last week. Some in the media say Claims below 400,000 for the past fifteen weeks is positive sign for the jobs market, but I repeat that 350,000 is the recessionary threshold. Gold rallied to $1662.0 the Troy ounce on Thursday, but closed below my semiannual pivot at $1659.4. Crude oil traded as high as $104.92 per barrel on Thursday testing my semiannual pivot at $104.84. The euro versus the dollar has been trading around this week's pivot at 1.3223 all week. Stocks have had a good week, but keep in mind that my prediction that Dow Transports and Russell 2000 will continue to lag their 2011 all time highs at 5627.85 set on July 7th and 868.57 set on May 2nd.

    Today's Four in Four Key Levels: The Power of the Pivots - So many magnets tested!
     

    1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury returned to my semiannual pivot at 1.903, as the bond bears continue to be wrong.
    2. Commodities - Gold remains below its "Death Cross" with the 50-day below the 200-day at $1679.2 and $1697.3, but stability remains because of the power of my semiannual pivots at $1635.8 and $1659.4. Crude oil remains influenced by quarterly, annual and semiannual pivots at $101.55, $103.58 and $104.84 with the 50-day SMA at $105.11.
    3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar remains above my semiannual value level at 1.2980 with the weekly pivot at 1.3223 and quarterly risky level at 1.3366.
    4. Equities - The Dow Industrial Average and Russell 2000 are above weekly pivots at 13,104 and 802.51 with weekly risky levels at 1406.6 SPX, 3097 NASDAQ and 5326 Dow Transports. Key annual levels are 1363.2 SPX and 836.15 Russell 2000.
    5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks are reasonably priced fundamentally with 58.7% of all stocks undervalued with six undervalued sectors and ten overvalued sectors. Aerospace is 10.7% UV, Computers & Technology 12.4% OV, Finance 11.3% OV, Medical 14.2% OV, and Retail-Wholesale 13.8% OV.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

    Themes: The Dow Industrial Average and Russell 2000 are above weekly pivots at 13, 104 and 802.51 with weekly risky levels at 1406.6 SPX, 3097 NASDAQ and 5326 Dow Transports. Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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The Dow Industrial Average is below weekly and quarterly pivots at 12, 000, 000 Predictions, 003 Dow Industrials, 033 shifts the weekly chart to negative with my quarterly pivot at 12, 104 and 802.51 with weekly risky levels at 1406.6 SPX, 104 and the Russell 2000 closed above its weekly pivot at 802.51. Weekly risky levels remain at 1406.6 SPX, 104 Dow Industrials, 1375.7 SPX, 1376.3 SPX, 1376.4 SPX, 1397.0 S P 500, 1406.6 SPX, 200-day SMA, 2011, 210 and May’s risky level at 13, 210. , 2999 NASDAQ, 3002 NASDAQ, 3041 NASDAQ, 3097 NASDAQ, 3097 NASDAQ and 5326 Dow Transports., 3097 NASDAQ and 5326 Dow Transports. , 312. A weekly close below my annual pivot at 1363.2 is negative. , 312. The S P 500 is below my annual pivot at 1363.2 with my quarterly pivot at 1337.7., 338.66 shy of May’s risky level at 13, 354 Dow Industrials, 354 with this week’s pivot at 13, 354., 354. The S P 500 is between my monthly pivot at 1397.0 and weekly risky level at 1415.8. , 491, 491 and S P 500 1210.7, 5000 stocks in SPX, 507, 5228 Dow Transports and 812.71 Russell 2000. , 5229 Dow Transports and 811.00 Russell 2000. This keeps the Bull versus Bear Debate alive and kicking. , 5232 Dow Transports, 5326 Dow Transports and 802.51. , 5385 Dow Transports and 813.56 Russell 2000. , 692 and 12, 775 for the Dow Industrial Average, 794 and 12, 794 and annual value level at 12, 794 and my monthly risky level at 13, 794 with my annual value level at 1, 798 with my annual value level at 12, 944 Indicates Risk To 11, 964 Dow Industrials, 977, 978 Dow Industrials,
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