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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • All Equity Averages Should Be Negative On Weekly Charts Today. 0 comments
    May 11, 2012 6:19 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    Markets in Review: Asian stocks were lower again on Friday. The Nikkei 225 ended their session at 8,953 - down 0.63% on the day. The Hang Seng ended their session at 19,965 - down 1.30% on the day. European exchanges opened lower on Friday but were back around the flat lines by 5:00 AM. The FTSE 100 ended Thursday at 5,544 - up 0.25% on the day. The DAX ended Thursday at 6,518 - up 0.66% on the day. The CAC 40 ended Thursday at 3,130 - up 0.37% on the day. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury tested my semiannual pivot at 1.903 on Thursday after testing 1.793 on Wednesday is trading at 1.858 this morning. Gold traded as low as $1572.0 the Troy ounce this morning testing my annual value level at $1575.8 well below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $1654.3 and $1698.6. Crude oil traded down to $95.74 per barrel overnight trading below its 200-day SMA at $96.28. The euro versus the dollar traded down to 1.2909 below my semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

    Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
     

    1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is between my semiannual pivot at 1.903 and my monthly risky level at 1.734.
    2. Commodities - For Gold my annual and monthly value levels are $1575.8 and $1525.8 the Troy ounce with my weekly pivot at $1590 and my semiannual pivots at $1635.8 and $1659.4. For Crude oil my semiannual value level is $79.83 with the 200-day SMA at $96.28 and my weekly pivot at $98.72 and quarterly risky levels at $101.55.
    3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar shows a monthly value level at 1.2257 with my semiannual pivot at 1.2980 and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1.3232 and 1.3366.
    4. Equities - A weekly close on Dow Industrials below 13,033 shifts the weekly chart to negative with my quarterly pivot at 12,794 and annual value level at 12,312. A weekly close below my annual pivot at 1363.2 is negative. A weekly close below 2911 on the NASDAQ would be another negative. A weekly close below 5236 on Dow Transports would be negative. My bearish warning for the past two months was based upon Dow Transports and Russell 2000 staying below all time highs at 5627.85 set on July 7, 2011 and 868.57 set on May 2, 2011.
    5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks remain cheap fundamentally with 66.3% of all stocks undervalued, but keep in mind that on October 4th 93.5% were undervalued. Five sectors are undervalued with eleven overvalued. Autos-Tires-Trucks - 17.2% UV and Basic Materials - 13.3% UV.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

    Themes: A weekly close on Dow Industrials below 13, 033 shifts the weekly chart to negative with my quarterly pivot at 12, 794 and annual value level at 12, 312. A weekly close below my annual pivot at 1363.2 is negative. Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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The Dow Industrial Average is below weekly and quarterly pivots at 12, 000, 000 Predictions, 003 Dow Industrials, 033 shifts the weekly chart to negative with my quarterly pivot at 12, 104 and 802.51 with weekly risky levels at 1406.6 SPX, 104 and the Russell 2000 closed above its weekly pivot at 802.51. Weekly risky levels remain at 1406.6 SPX, 104 Dow Industrials, 1375.7 SPX, 1376.3 SPX, 1376.4 SPX, 1397.0 S P 500, 1406.6 SPX, 200-day SMA, 2011, 210 and May’s risky level at 13, 210. , 2999 NASDAQ, 3002 NASDAQ, 3041 NASDAQ, 3097 NASDAQ, 3097 NASDAQ and 5326 Dow Transports., 3097 NASDAQ and 5326 Dow Transports. , 312. A weekly close below my annual pivot at 1363.2 is negative. , 312. The S P 500 is below my annual pivot at 1363.2 with my quarterly pivot at 1337.7., 338.66 shy of May’s risky level at 13, 354 Dow Industrials, 354 with this week’s pivot at 13, 354., 354. The S P 500 is between my monthly pivot at 1397.0 and weekly risky level at 1415.8. , 491, 491 and S P 500 1210.7, 5000 stocks in SPX, 507, 5228 Dow Transports and 812.71 Russell 2000. , 5229 Dow Transports and 811.00 Russell 2000. This keeps the Bull versus Bear Debate alive and kicking. , 5232 Dow Transports, 5326 Dow Transports and 802.51. , 5385 Dow Transports and 813.56 Russell 2000. , 692 and 12, 775 for the Dow Industrial Average, 794 and 12, 794 and annual value level at 12, 794 and my monthly risky level at 13, 794 with my annual value level at 1, 798 with my annual value level at 12, 944 Indicates Risk To 11, 964 Dow Industrials, 977, 978 Dow Industrials,
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