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Richard Suttmeier
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  • The S&P 500 Tested My Quarterly Value Level At 1337.7. 2 comments
    May 15, 2012 5:54 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    Markets in Review: Asian stocks were mixed on Tuesday. The Nikkei 225 ended their session at 8,901 - down 0.81% on the day. The Hang Seng ended their session at 19,910 - up 0.88% on the day. European exchanges were lower on Monday, but opened slightly higher on Tuesday. The FTSE 100 ended Monday at 5,466 - down 1.97%. The DAX ended Monday at 6,452 - down 1.94%. The CAC 40 ended Monday at 3,058 - down 2.29%. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury declined to 1.760 this morning versus monthly and weekly risky levels at 1.734 and 1.726. Gold traded down to $1546.8 the Troy ounce this morning with my monthly value level at $1525.8 with my annual pivot at $1575.8. Crude oil traded down to $93.65 per barrel Monday staying below its 200-day simple moving average at $96.26. The euro versus the dollar traded down to 1.2818 this morning well below my semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

    Today's Four in Four Key Levels:

    1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is below my semiannual pivot at 1.903 with monthly and weekly risky levels at 1.734 and 1.726, and the September 23rd low a 1.671.
    2. Commodities - For Gold my monthly value level is $1525.8 the Troy ounce with my annual pivot at $1575.8 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at $1612.6, $1635.8 and $1659.4. For Crude oil my semiannual value level is $79.83 with a weekly pivot at $95.76, and the 200-day SMA at $96.26 and quarterly risky levels at $101.55.
    3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar shows a monthly value level at 1.2257 with my semiannual pivot at 1.2980 and weekly risky level at 1.3085.
    4. Equities - The Dow Industrial Average is below my quarterly and weekly pivots at 12,794 and 12,798 with my annual value level at 12,312. The S&P 500 is below my annual pivot at 1363.2 with my quarterly pivot at 1337.7. The NASDAQ closed just below my quarterly pivot at 2911 with my annual value level at 2698. Dow Transports tested and held my weekly value level at 5085. The Russell 2000 is below my weekly pivot at 786.76. My prediction remains that Dow Transports and Russell 2000 will not return to their lag 2011 all time highs at 5627.85 set on July 7, 2011 and 868.57 set on May 2, 2011 in 2012.
    5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks remain cheap fundamentally with 69.9% of all stocks undervalued, but keep in mind that on October 4th 93.5% were undervalued. A factor is the low 30-Year bond yield at 2.95%. Six sectors are undervalued with ten overvalued. Autos-Tires-Trucks - 19.5% UV and Basic Materials - 17.6% UV.

    VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up:

    Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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Comments (2)
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  • Chambord
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
    What are the implications of this?
    15 May 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Richard Suttmeier
    , contributor
    Comments (168) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » As you close below a key level you seek the next one.
    15 May 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
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