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Richard Suttmeier
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the... More
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  • The Weekly Charts for the US Capital Markets 0 comments
    Apr 22, 2010 4:33 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, DUG, DIA
    The 200-week simple moving average stabilizes 10-Year US Treasury yields. Strong gold is a warning of a return to currency of last resort, as the euro trades below its 200-week simple moving average. Crude oil has been trading around its 200-week simple moving average since June 2009. The Dow Industrial Average has been testing its 200-week simple moving average. My market call remains; “Sell Strength”, raise cash to 75%, as the Dow is headed for 8,500 before 11,500.
    10-Year Note – Semiannual support is 4.250 with a weekly pivot at 3.735, and semiannual, monthly and quarterly resistances at 3.675, 3.607 and 3.467. The chart shows the 200-week simple moving average as support at 3.960. This is the yield that benchmarks mortgage rates, and a trend above the 200-week simple moving average would dampen an already weak housing market as the tax credits expire for contracts on April 30. Approximately 50% of home sales are for first time home buyers.    
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
    Comex Gold – Annual, quarterly and annual supports are $1115.2, $1052.8 and $938.7 with weekly and semiannual pivots at $1131.3 and $1139.7, and semiannual and monthly resistances at $1186.5 and $1202.5. The 200-week simple moving average is a long term support at $841.9. I still believe in the trading range scenario, but do not rule out that range being broken to the upside on the country risks in Euroland. Keeping the funds rate too low for too long in the United States makes commodity speculation a continued risk.
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
    The Euro – Quarterly support is 1.2450 with a weekly pivot at 1.3507 and monthly and quarterly resistances at 1.4081, 1.4145 and 1.4478. The 200-week simple moving average has become a resistance at 1.3915. The financial crisis of the PIIGS nations, led by Greece should keep the euro below the 200-week SMA, keeping a lid on a global economic recovery.
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
    Nymex Crude Oil Annual and quarterly supports are $77.05 and $58.41 with weekly and monthly resistances at $84.30 and $84.54, and annual and semiannual resistances at $97.29 and $97.50. The 200-week simple moving average has been a magnet since June 2009. As oil stays above the 200-week SMA, higher energy costs will put a drag on the economy on Main Street USA, while Wall Street gains from commodity speculation. Upside bias remains in anticipation of Hurricane season and a zero percent federal funds rate a the Federal Reserve for an “extended period”.
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
    Weekly Dow:The Dow seems to test its 200-week simple moving average at 11,134 on a daily basis, but weekly closes have been below that milestone. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought on a close this week above its 5-week modified moving average at 10,830. My annual and semiannual resistances are 11,235 and 11,442. The 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the October 2007 high to March 2009 low at 11,246. I still predict Dow 8,500 before Dow 11,500.
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
    That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist
    (800) 381-5576
    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to and review some of the sample issues of my research.
    “I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”

    Disclosure: No Positions
    Stocks: TLT, GLD, DUG, DIA
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