The Key Levels for the US Capital Markets
10-Year Note - (1.457) tested a new all time low yield at 1.439 on Friday. Daily, semiannual and monthly value levels are 1.559, 1.903 and 1.909 with quarterly, semiannual and weekly risky levels at 1.407, 1.385 and 1.370.
Comex Gold - ($1624.9) My annual value level is $1388.4 with annual and daily value levels at $1575.8 and $1560.2, a weekly pivot at $1612.1, semiannual and monthly risky levels at $1635.8, $1659.4 and $1695.4. My quarterly risky level is $1871.9. Gold held the base of the popped bubble at $1535 to $1525 then returned to the 50-day and 200-day moving average "Death Cross" at $1625.2 and $1688.7 on Friday.
Nymex Crude Oil - ($83.27) My semiannual value level is $79.83 with daily and weekly pivots at $83.93 and $86.55 and quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at $101.55, $103.58 and $104.84. Crude oil set a new YTD low at $82.56 with the 200-week SMA at $81.17.
The Euro - (1.2425) My daily value level is 1.2165 with weekly, monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 1.2646, 1.2815, 1.2980 and 1.3366. The June 2010 low is 1.1880.
The weekly charts have been negative since May 11th. Friday's open for the Dow Industrial Average was a gap below my annual pivot at 12,312 and the close was also below the 200-day simple moving average at 12,254. This was my next longer term negative signal. My next objective to the downside is to my annual value level at 2698 on the NASDAQ. A weekly close below 2698 NASDAQ risks a stock meltdown going into the end of the first half on 2012. I would not rule out a week of reversal-oriented trading this week given weekly pivots at 12,279 Dow, 1278.3 S&P 500, 2716 NASDAQ, 4903 Dow Transports and 736.52 Russell 2000.
Daily Dow:(12,119) No nearby value levels with weekly and daily risky levels at 12,279 and 12,299, the 200-day simple moving average at 12,254, my annual pivot at 12,312, and quarterly risky level at 12,794. Annual and monthly risky levels are 14,032 and 14,201.
S&P 500 - (1278.0) My weekly pivot is 1278.3, the 200-day simple moving average at 1284.5, and daily, quarterly, annual, monthly and annual risky levels at 1303.2, 1337.7, 1363.2, 1504.8 and 1562.9.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2459) The 200-day simple moving average is 2436 with weekly and annual value levels at 2414 and 2300, and daily, annual, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 2495, 2603, 2608 and 2873.
Dow Transports - (4912) My weekly pivot is 4903 with the 200-day simple moving average at 4952, and daily and quarterly risky levels at 5070 and 5420, and the all time high set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.
Russell 2000 - (737.42) My weekly pivot is 736.52 with the 200-day SMA at 756.18, and daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 753.94, 829.34 and 836.15, and the all time high set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.
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