Seeking Alpha

Richard Suttmeier's  Instablog

Richard Suttmeier
Send Message
ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
My company:
ValuEngine
My blog:
valuengine.com/ve/ma...
  • The Beige Book shows a Housing-Led Economic Slowdown 0 comments
    Sep 9, 2010 2:22 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, DUG, DIA
    The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury continues to trade between my annual value level at 2.813 and my quarterly risky level at 2.495. Gold tests $1264.7, then closed cheaper than my semiannual and monthly pivots at $1260.8 and $1263.8. Crude oil continues to trade between its August 25th low at $70.76 and my annual pivot at $77.05. The euro is between its August 24th low of 1.2591 and its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2843. The major equity averages still straddle monthly pivots at 10,164 on Dow Industrials, 1074.9 S&P 500, 2196 NASDAQ, 4364 Dow Transports and 652.82 on Russell 2000. The Dow remains influenced by my annual pivot at 10,379. The Beige Book and Credit Suisse support my view that home prices will decline 30% into 2014.
     
    10-Year Note – (2.661) Daily and annual value levels are 2.725, 2.813 and 2.999 with monthly, weekly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.562, 2.507, 2.495 and 2.249.
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    Comex Gold – ($1256.7) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are $1223.7, $1218.7, $1140.9 and $1115.2 with a daily pivot at $1260.1, and semiannual and monthly risky levels at $1257.5, $1260.8 and $1263.8. Note that gold is still overbought on its daily chart.        
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    Nymex Crude Oil ($74.57) Quarterly value level is $56.63 with my monthly pivot is $74.45, and daily, weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at $75.04, $76.76, $77.05 and $83.94.   
     
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    The Euro – (1.2714) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2167, 1.1721 and 1.1424 with daily, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.2771, 1.3168 and 1.4733.
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    Daily Dow: (10,387) Monthly and quarterly value levels are 10,164 and 7,812 with my annual pivot at 10,379, and weekly, daily, semiannual and annual risky levels at 10,515, 10,531, 10,558 and 11,235. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th high of 11,258.01. The 50-day simple moving average is 10,275 with the 21-day at 10,260, and 200-day simple moving average as resistance at 10,451, which was tested on Friday. Longer term its still “Dow 8500 Before 11,500”.
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    The Fed Beige Book – the Gossip from the Twelve Fed Districts
     
    The Beige Book suggested continued economic growth from mid-July to the end of August, but with widespread signs of deceleration. Home sales slowed further following the severe drop after the expiration of the tax credits for homebuyers. Construction activity experienced a slowdown and demand for commercial real estate remained weak with downward pressure on rent rates. Bank lending remained soft as businesses remained reluctant to implement expansion plans.
     
    My analysis – “The Great Credit Crunch” began on Main Street USA with the housing bubble and community banks becoming overexposed to commercial real estate loans, especially construction & development loans. So far there have been no government programs to help the root cause of the problems.
     
    Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents – from Credit Suisse – shows additional pressures on home prices in August with the expectation that this trend will continue into 2011. It appears prices must come down with an inventory of close to four million existing homes up for sale. This report supports my prediction that home prices will decline 30% by the end of 2014.
     
    That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
     
    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist
    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576
     
    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
     
    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
     
    “I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”


    Disclosure: No Positions
Back To Richard Suttmeier's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.