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David Nelson, CFA
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David Nelson, CFA is the Chief Strategist of Belpointe Asset Management. The members of his firm, DC Nelson Asset Management LLC (DC Nelson), recently merged into Belpointe. At Belpointe he will continue to manage his Alpha Select Portfolio. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), a... More
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  • It is Hard to Fall When You Are Sitting on the Floor 0 comments
    Sep 13, 2011 1:06 PM | about stocks: STLD, ISIL, TXN, BBY, QCOM, SWKS
    In the last several days a number of stocks have traded up on lowered guidance or missed earnings.  Most of these names have seen their share prices pummeled in recent weeks more than likely on expectations of such an announcement coming.  
    This has been most notable in the Semiconductor industry where estimates have been coming down for months especially those exposed to declining PC sales.  However steel producer and metals recycler Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD) was added to the Rogues Gallery last night when they lowered Q3 guidance to $0.20 significantly below consensus estimates of $0.29.  After trading down briefly in the after-market STLD is trading higher today by more than 2%.

    Not all misses are being well received.  Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) reported $0.47 vs. street estimates of $0.53 this morning and is as of this writing down nearly 8% on the day.
    I would caution that while it is comforting that STLD, ISIL and TXN seem to have found support the only real conclusion I can draw at this point is: “It’s Hard to Fall When You are Sitting on the Floor.” While they may be close to bottoms I still need a catalyst to get me to open my wallet.  Prefer to focus on Semi names like Qualcomm QCOM and Skyworks SWKS which have less exposure to the broad economy.     


    We are currently long QUAL and SWKS in our Alpha Select Portfolios.  


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