The GLD, GTU And /GC In The Near Term, And Then A Bit Further Out
Looking closely at the GLD and GTU ETFs and the /GC Gold e-mini futures and their coordinate quarterly echovectors and quarterly echobackweeks for this coming week, and this 13 week repeating period over the past 2 years (a full Congressional Cycle perspective length of time), we uncover a relatively persistent pattern of relative strength the front side of this coming week with respect to the several prior weeks of relative weakness.
The last discernible quarterly echo-week bottom came in about a month ago, and like a charm. But little price lift subsequently ensued, and likely because of the already powerful central bank induced price stimulation, coupled with the often regularly manifested seasonal and cyclical support, from late July.
After dealing with several weeks of price momentum weakness, nimble gold traders may now be looking for some price support, and again some temporary upside reversal price action in the gold metals the first part of this coming week; however, with this relative strength potentially not lasting very long, and subsiding fairly quickly at the end of the week and early the following week.
More adept cyclical analysts can discern this tendency by looking at a weekly OHLC chart of the gold metals for the last 3 years and focusing on the 13 week (quarterly) cycle. Extending perspective further to a full 5 years, to also include a full 4-Year Presidential Cycle phase and perspective within, may also give gold bulls, in their strong enthusiasm, additional reason to pause after this week. Additionally, focusing on the echobackperiod quarterly cycle, and looking forward 3 weeks after the close of this coming week, might also reinforce this same conclusion among active gold bulls as well.
However, considering a longer term perspective, current price dynamics, echovectors, and various Fourier distinguished cyclical price histories and patterns within the overall gold price track, and including current fundamental macroeconomics concerns in the analysis, such as further inflationary prospects and global political economic stability (regarding such things as energy and international sovereign debt issues) we currently tend to remain bullish overall on the gold's longer term prospects.
However, it will be interesting to see how the prospects of a possibly new US Central Bank Fed Chairman might play out on future domestic and global inflation dynamics, and on the price of gold (as a significant inflation hedge) within the context of a possibly altered Federal Reserve monetary approach and wealth effect stimulus, as a potentially new emerging Federal Reserve Bank Chairman's perspectives and instituted approaches, going forward, possibly become the case.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in GLD over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
This article is tagged with: Gold & Precious Metalsover the next 72 hours.I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.