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The Regime Change Cycle, The Presidential Cycle, And The Congressional Cycle: Where We Are Now In The Stock Market: A Look At The SPX (Reprint From Mid-March 2013

Apr. 05, 2013 6:38 PM ETSPY, SSO, SDS, QQQ, PSQ, QLD, QID, IWM, RWM, UWM, UKK, TWM, DIA, DOG, DDM, DXD, TLT, TLH, IEF, UUP, UDN, GLD, GTU, DGZ, UGL, DZZ, GLL, IAU, SGOL, SLV, DBS, AGQ, ZSL, CU, PALL, PPLT, VXX, UVXY, XLI, TNA, SPXU, IVV, TQQQ, SQQQ, SPLV
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Presented Chart: SPX: S&P 500 COMPOSITE INDEX

A 21-Year Weekly OHLC Chart With Key 8-Year Regime Change Cycle EchoVectors (RCCEVs) and 4-Year Presidential Cycle EchoVectors (PCEVs) and Coordinated Forecast EchoVectors (FEVs) and Key Coordinated Echo-Back Dates (EBDs) Illustrated:

A Chart With Active and Key Bi-Regime Change Cycle EVs, Regime Change Cycle EVs, Presidential Cycle EVs, Coordinate Forecast EVs From Key And Select Pivot Point EBDs and With Upside and Downside Coordinate Pivot Extension Vectors Generated From Key Coordinated Focus Interest Echo-Back Time-Points and Time-Periods Highlighted.

Key Coordinated Echo-Back Dates and Cycle Echo-Back Time-Points. Key Highlighted And Coordinated EchoVectors And Coordinated Period UpVectors, DownVectors and Support Vectors, and Their Colors, As Illustrated On Chart:

  • 1. 16-Year Bi-Regime Change Cycle EchoVector With Coordinate EchoBackDate:

    12/16/96 - 12/17/12 Solid Green

    Long Solid White and Long Spaced White Toward Bottom

    2. 8-Year Regime Change Cycle EchoVectors With Coordinate EchoBackDates:

    3/1/99 - 3/5/07 Medium Length Solid White

    7/19/99 - 7/16/07 Medium Length Solid White

    8/4/03 - 8/8/11 Medium Length Solid White

    3/8/04 - 3/12/12 Medium Length Solid Yellow

    3. 4-Year Regime Change Cycle EchoVectors With Coordinate EchoBackDates: 11/17/08 - 11/12/12 Medium Length Solid Blue

    All Other Medium Length Solid Blue Vectors and Medium Length Spaced Blue Vectors Are Regime Change Cycle Period Coordinated Parallels of the Above Presidential Cycle EchoVector.

    5. 4-Year 5-Month Coordinate, and Parallel, Regime Change Cycle DownVectors: Medium Length Solid Red: Four

    6. Incumbent Presidential Election Year: Green Dot, Short Red Line

    7. Republican Presidential Victory Year: Red Square

    8. Democratic Presidential Victory Year: Blue Square

    9. 1-year 8-Month Coordinate Regime Change Cycle Period Support Vector: Short Solid Blue

    10. Off Year (Non-Presidential) Congressional Cycle: Yellow Square

    Analytical Points of Interest:

    1. Note that the year of an Incumbent Presidential Election, as won by the incumbent, and regardless of party, constituted a strong price flex point year, and inaugurated 3 following years of STRONG PPRICE MELT-UP AND STOCK PRICE VALUE GAINS.

    Also note the major Price Level Decline that followed that 3-year melt-up period.

    2. Note that the strong green bi-regime change cycle echovector is being fulfilled in steps, both last year and this year, and is consistent with regime change cycle period price level action in 2004 and 2005 as well. Then note that this price action is still taking place within the strong but less vigorous white regime change cycle and longer white coordinate bi-regime change cycle echovector at the base, which may dominate and limit the upside range.

    However, noting both these foregoing conditions, also note that last years and this year's key regime change cycle echovector, as effected last summer by global central bank coordinated intervention, and highlighted in yellow, is now tilting the echovector price pathway up beyond the white vector coordinated pathway echo climb rate and towards the more vigorous green climb rate. How long might this echo price coorination and echo-symmetry continue in both price extension and in time extension, at this rate, before moderating factors may prevail?

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    (Click on chart to enlarge and click on chart again to open new tab then click on chart in new tab to zoom)

    FOR FURTHER EXTENDED ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY

    See

    A Technical EchoVector Look At The Stock Market: Moving Into March Expiration: Update With Chart

    and article, Dow Chart: Toppy Or Not?, at

    http://echovectorvest.blogspot.com/2013/02/dow-chart-toppy-or-not-next-months.html,

    OTAPS ALERT at

    http://echovectorvest.blogspot.com/2013/02/blog-post_5845.html,

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    I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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