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Kevin Wilbur
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Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the President and Founder of ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST. He is also the Chief Architect of the Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots Forecast Model and Alert Paradigm, and the Senior Developer of the ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST Active Advanced Risk... More
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ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST
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The Market Pivots Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter
  • Today's ProtectVEST Market Timing Commentary 0 comments
    May 15, 2012 8:41 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, QQQ

    Some model specific precision timing considerations of mine...

    Although some forecasters may be going for the 580-585 level on the S&P100 this week, the MDPP forecast model's pre-expiration day targets were fulfilled today at 604-605.

    Being timing 'precision disciplined', I am therefore more inclined to look for the lower levels on the June strike sometime next week, as the model forecast presently favors at the micro-precision level.

    (That doesn't mean we couldn't melt-down into these levels earlier. I just wouldn't want to leave the model's forecast disciplines and bank on it.)

    A surprising amount of premium gets taken out of the June's Thursday (this week) through Tuesday (next week) options due to rollovers and additional 'post option expiration day clarity' re-positionings. I don't care for buy-and-hold exposure then. So my model's generated strategy to cover today from a forecast based price level trigger, and from a 3PM hour 'quarterly echovector time-based trigger' are further reinforced by these considerations.

    The model could be indicating 'jumping off the train' early on the 'buy and hold basis', since it presently calls for 'getting back on board' Monday anyway.

    But I don't like the notion of giving back the possible 25% off the top of the standardized monthly volatility value so common in these short term directionally adverse swings, even though so much more significant gain is also packed into them from the strong sell-off since the May 1ST ALERT.

    Besides, the active advanced day-trading prerogatives allow position subsumption and further entry and exit optimization within the swing trading regimes as well.

    Keep that in mind, it looks great when the model nails these extra differentials too, and enables utilizers to potentially collect those extra 'wiggle-premiums' and advantages.

    See the six month, three month, and monthly, bi-weekly and weekly charts on the OEX, /ES, and /YM at for illustration and confirmation, and other recent SA articles and instablogs of mine too.

    Or simply click on the links below:

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, QQQ
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