helios q's  Instablog

A Few Notes on the YGE Q2 Numbers

1. YGE was a surprise in the midst of our solar turmoil.  With an EPS of 36 cents, they managed to beat the Street (29 cents)  as well as my estimate (25 cents).

2. They are producing pretty well at 100% capacity.  It appears they will be sold out to the end of the year.

3. It was a bit irritating that they did not specify specific range metrics for ASPs and future shipments but instead chose to use words like high 20s or low teens (in terms of percentages).

4. Their processing cost roadmap seems to have worsened over the next few quarters.  They now appear to be 73 cents for Q2 and going down to 70 cents entering 2012.

5. Poly per watt will fall from 5.8 g/watt to 5.5 g/watt

6. It appears that poly pricing will be around $50 for Q3 and $47 for Q4

7. Panda will entail a 10% higher processing cost at this time and 15% premium.  By next year, they expect with economies of scale to reduce the processing cost to 5% higher than standard processing.  They are equipped to produce 300MW at this time.

8. Poly Plant - For 2012, the plant will be either neutral or a drag on earnings.  They expect processing costs in the range of $45 (Q1 2012) to $35 (Q4).  They expect to reach $25 by YE 2013.

9. As a separate cost center, we estimate that they could lose around $15 million in 2012 bringing the plant up to full efficiency.