LATEST INSTABLOGS POSTS

  • The Worst Case Scenario
    “There is oversold, and there is OVERSOLD”. That was a comment made by my friend, technical analyst Arthur Hill, in the wake of the Dow’s breathtaking 634 point crash. Some indicators were showing the most oversold levels in 12 years. I think that there is a better than 50/50... More »
    Aug. 15, 2011
  • Is QE3 Back From the Dead?
    When I went to bed late last night, the (SPX) was trading down 30 points, and I was thinking “here we go again”. When I woke up, the market was up 30 points, and I had to blink hard. The overnight range was an unprecedented 60 points, or 560 Dow points. From the July high to the... More »
    Aug. 15, 2011
  • Join Me for Lunch in Auckland, New Zealand on Monday, October 10th
    Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Auckland, New Zealand on Monday, October 10, 2011. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my... More »
    Aug. 15, 2011
  • Quote of the Day
    “Buy then when they’re cringing, and you will do extremely well in this business,” said Ken Kamen, founder of Princeton Securities.
    Aug. 15, 2011
  • Why I’ve Been Wrong About the Market
     On Friday I was fairly convinced that we are close to a bottom in the market at 1,166. As I write this the next day, I am staring at the (SPX) futures ticking down to 1,114.60. I have been following global financial markets since the late sixties, and at my current advanced age, I... More »
    Aug. 15, 2011
  • Japan Recovery Starts Early
    It looks like the second half of the “V” shaped recovery of the Japanese economy, the leg up, is starting sooner than expected. Long time readers of this letter already know that in the wake of the March tsunami that hit Japan there would be an immediate collapse of the Japanese... More »
    Aug. 15, 2011
  • The Second Shoe Falls in the Downgrade Crisis
    Today, Standard and Poor’s fired the second barrel of its shotgun at the credit worthiness of the US with its downgrade of Fannie Mae debt from triple “A” to AA+. Other government-backed securities are soon expected to suffer a similar fate. The move snuffed out a nascent rally... More »
    Aug. 15, 2011
  • Quote of the Day
    “There is barely a bond anywhere in the world I would buy right now. Bonds are heinously expensive here. Everywhere I look, equities beat bonds hands down,” said Pat Dorsey, vice chairman of Sanibel Captiva Trust.
    Aug. 15, 2011
  • The July Nonfarm Payroll: Rocketing Back Up to Zero
    The monthly nonfarm payroll report finally surprised to the upside, the much watched figure coming in at +117,000, well above a consensus of +90,000. The headline unemployment rate is back down 0.1% to 9.1%. May and June saw healthy revisions up of +56,000 jobs. Private sector hiring soared to... More »
    Aug. 15, 2011
  • RIP for America’s Triple A Rating
    At long last, after months of warnings, leaks, hand wringing, and speculation, Standard and Poor’s has at last downgraded US Treasury bonds a notch to AA+. The change was the most telegraphed ratings change in history. You can bet this weekend saw a flurry of emergency board meetings... More »
    Aug. 15, 2011