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  • Today - Monday, December 5, 2016

  • 7:55 AM
    • A "sell the rumor, buy the news rally" has been snuffed out in Italian banks, with Unicredit (OTCPK:UNCFFdown 5.6% and currently halted.
    • Intesa Sanpaolo (OTCPK:IITSF) -3%
    • Mediabanca (OTC:MDIBF-3.9%
    • Banco Popolare (OTCPK:BPESY-7%
    • The FTSE MIB Index is down 1%, while the rest of Europe is in the green.
    • EWI -2.1% premarket
    | 7:55 AM
  • 5:37 AM
    • The people "have spoken in a clear and unequivocal way... we leave with no regrets," said Italy's Matteo Renzi, before he goes to President Sergio Mattarella to tender his resignation.
    • Among the biggest winners of the referendum is the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement, which has called for a nonbinding plebiscite on Italy's euro membership and might favor printing a parallel currency.
    • The nation has already seen 63 governments in just 70 years.
    • ETFs: EWI, HEWI, DBIT
    | 5:37 AM
  • 5:18 AM
    • Taking cues from the U.S. election and post-Brexit trading, a "Renzi resignation rally" is underway across the globe after denting equities earlier in the session.
    • With virtually all the ballots counted, 59.6% of Italians voted to block the Prime Minister's constitutional reform plans in a closely-watched referendum.
    • The euro has come off 20-month lows, trading down 0.2% at $1.0639, while the yield on 10-year Italian government bonds rose 11 basis points to 2.02%.
    • Asia: Nikkei -0.8%; Shanghai -0.8%; Hang Seng -0.3%;
    • Europe: Rome +0.8%. London +0.8%. Paris +1.4%. Frankfurt +1.7%.
    • U.S. Futures: Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.6%.
    • Related: What about Italy's financial sector? (Dec. 05 2016)
    • Related: Italy's referendum overshadows EU finance talks (Dec. 05 2016)
    • Related: Political instability following Renzi's defeat? (Dec. 05 2016)
    | 5:18 AM | 16 Comments
  • 4:38 AM
    • Britain's Supreme Court will hear arguments over the next four days to decide whether Theresa May has the right to trigger Article 50 of the Brexit process without a parliamentary vote.
    • All 11 Supreme Court justices will hear the case, so that there can be no accusations the court would have delivered a different decision if the panel had been constituted differently. A verdict is expected in January.
    • ETFs: EWU, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | 4:38 AM | 1 Comment
  • 4:08 AM
    | 4:08 AM
  • 3:35 AM
    • In a highly anticipated opening to foreign oil companies, Mexico will hold its first auction of deepwater oil and gas blocks today.
    • The waters are believed to hold important energy reserves, but Mexico's longtime national oil company Pemex, does not have the capital or expertise to develop them.
    • Investors are closely watching the results as a measure of the energy overhaul's success as well as potential bidders BP, Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) and Statoil (NYSE:STO).
    • ETFs: EWW, MXF, MXE, UMX, DBMX, SMK, QMEX, HEWW
    | 3:35 AM | 3 Comments
  • 3:05 AM
    • Italian Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan has canceled his trip to today's Eurogroup meeting in Brussels as the vacuum in Italian politics opens up.
    • European finance ministers are set to discuss immediate impacts from the country's referendum, which is likely to be felt most in the banking sector, as well as conclude a review of reforms in Greece and discuss ways of making its giant debt more manageable.
    • ETFs: GREK, EWI, HEWI, DBIT
    | 3:05 AM | 1 Comment
  • 2:27 AM
    • The populist wave spreading across Europe saw a defeat in Austria as voters rejected Norbert Hofer, the leader of the far-right Freedom Party.
    • According to a final count at the ballot box, the Green Party's Alexander Van der Bellen won 53.3% of the vote in the country's runoff presidential election compared to Hofer's 46.4%.
    • The margin is a surprise as polls ahead of Sunday's vote had shown the two candidates neck-and-neck.
    • ETFs: EWO
    | 2:27 AM
  • 2:06 AM
    • The kiwi went on a bumpy ride overnight after New Zealand Prime Minister John Key announced he would not seek a fourth term.
    • "All I can say is that I gave it everything I had. I have left nothing in the tank."
    • Key, who has been in power since 2008, is backing his finance minister, Bill English, to take the helm.
    • ETFs: ENZL
    | 2:06 AM
  • Sunday, December 4, 2016

  • 6:34 PM
    • "I have lost. In Italian politics no one ever loses. I lost, and I say that loudly. My government ends here."
    • So says Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi after the constitutional referendum he backed suffered a resounding defeat today.
    • The loss and Renzi's subsequent resignation were mostly expected, but nevertheless stock index futures and the euro are selling off.
    • S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures are lower by 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQby 0.6%.
    • German futures (NYSEARCA:EWG) are faring worse, down 1.1%, and FTSE 100 futures (NYSEARCA:EWU) are off 0.55%.
    • The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) is now lower by 1.3% vs. the greenback at $1.0526.
    • Gold's (NYSEARCA:GLD) catching a bid, up 0.7% to $1,187 per ounce.
    • Previously: Italy's Renzi set to speak; exit polls show sizable loss (Dec. 4)
    | 6:34 PM | 71 Comments
  • 5:20 PM
    • Stock index futures aren't trading yet, but currencies are, and the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) has quickly tumbled by nearly 100 pips  as exit polls show a constitutional referendum backed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi losing.
    • Renzi has vowed to resign if he loses. He's reportedly set to speak in about 40 minutes.
    • Unlike the Brexit vote and the U.S. election, an establishment loss in Italy was fairly widely anticipated, and Italian banks have been trending lower for several weeks.
    | 5:20 PM | 157 Comments
  • 4:09 AM
    • South Korea's three opposition parties introduced a joint impeachment motion against President Park Geun-hye on Saturday, dismissing the scandal-hit leader's recent proposal to resign early if parliament can agree on a suitable transition.
    • The motion, signed by 171 members of the 300-seat legislature, will be put to a vote on Friday, but still needs a two-thirds majority - or 200 lawmakers - to impeach her.
    • ETFs: EWY, KF, KEF, KORU, DXKW, DBKO, FKO, QKOR, HEWY, KOR
    | 4:09 AM
  • 4:00 AM
    • Italians are heading to the polls for a referendum on constitutional reform that could call the shots for global markets in the week ahead.
    • If the measures are rejected, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi would likely resign, further shaking Italy's vulnerable banks, the euro and possibly causing the next Brexit-like tremor for the markets.
    • The political instability would also represent a new setback for the EU, since Renzi's opponents are dominated by anti-establishment forces.
    • The polls opened at 7 a.m. local time and will close at 11 p.m. Exit polls will be released as soon as voting booths close, with a definitive result expected by about 1 a.m. on Monday.
    • ETFs: FXE, EUO, EWI, ERO, DRR, ULE, EUFX, URR, HEWI, DBIT
    • Related bank tickers: OTCPK:UNCFF, OTCPK:IITSF, OTCPK:IITOF, OTC:MDIBF, OTCPK:ISNPY, OTCPK:BPESY, OTC:UNCFY, OTCPK:MDIBY, OTCPK:BPESF
    | 4:00 AM | 21 Comments
  • Saturday, December 3, 2016

  • 11:33 AM
    • Electric vehicles are forecast to cut into oil demand by 1M-2M bbl/day by 2035, according to oil industry consultant Wood McKenzie.
    • That estimate is actually much more conservative than Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s estimate for EVs to impact demand by 8M bbl/day by 2035. For perspective, OPEC agreed this week to coordinated production cuts of 1.2M bbl/day which swung crude oil prices wildly. EVs are only sipping up the equivalent of 50K bbl/day currently.
    • The general consensus even in the oil industry is that governments are moving toward major changes with pollution and emissions regulations. Just this week, the cities of Paris, Mexico City, Madrid and Athens all said they would ban the use of diesel vehicles by 2025. Beijing is also slowly adopting pro-EV policies.
    • A higher mix of EVs in the future has already been tipped off by the dramatic long-term electrification initiatives announced this year by companies such as BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY), Ford (NYSE:F) and Toyota (NYSE:TM). Around the corner, Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) and General Motors (NYSE:GM) have their mass model EVs ready to roll - while new EV trucks, buses and motorcycles are also on the way.
    • WTI crude oil futures +1.21% to $51.68/bbl on Friday. Brent crude +0.96% to $54.46/bbl.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX.
    | 11:33 AM | 156 Comments
  • Friday, December 2, 2016

  • 7:37 PM
    • iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:AGG) - $0.2039. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.00%.
    • iShares Barclays 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) - $0.2427. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.83%.
    • iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:HYG) - $0.3807. 30-Day Sec yield of 5.88%.
    • iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:MUB) - $0.2091. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.93%.
    • iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:LQD) - $0.3168. 30-Day Sec yield of 3.44%.
    • iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:SHY) - $0.0496. 30-Day Sec yield of 0.87%.
    • Payable Dec. 7; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1.  30-Day Sec yield as of 12/1/2016.
    | 7:37 PM
  • 5:04 PM
    | 5:04 PM
  • 2:48 PM
    • S&P's index of municipal bonds fell 3.46% in November, writes Amey Stone in Barron's. That's the worst month since September 2008, when it fell 4.83%.
    • That interest rates rose sharply in November isn''t news, but S&P Dow Jones' J.R. Rieger says potential tax reform in which the highest marginal tax rate could be cut lowers the attractiveness of municipals.
    • Munis, says Rieger, are a retail-driven market, and thus sensitive to changes in sentiment and quick reversals in fund flows.
    • ETFs: MUB, NVG, IIM, NEA, NUV, NAD, PML, NZF, LEO, PZA, PMF, PMX, VMO, BFK, EVN, BLE, NXP, KTF, DSM, EIM, VGM, AFB, PMM, VKI, BKN, MVF
    | 2:48 PM | 20 Comments
  • 12:05 PM
    | 12:05 PM | 38 Comments
  • 11:51 AM
    • The financial sector is taking a breather from its staggering post-election run, with a post-jobs report dip in rates a good enough excuse for satiated bulls to cash in some chips.
    • XLF -1%, KBE -0.7%, KRE -0.7%.
    • Individual issues: Bank of America (BAC -1.8%), Morgan Stanley (MS -1.2%), Citigroup (C -1.9%), M&T (MTB -1.1%), Flagstar (FBC -1.7%), Fifth Third (FITB -1.6%), PNC Financial (PNC -1.4%), Prudential (PRU -1.1%), Lincoln National (LNC -1.9%), Schwab (SCHW -2.1%), State Street (STT -1.8%)
    • No longer part of the financial sector as far as the GICS classification, REITs are enjoying the respite in rates. IYR +1.6%, VNQ +1.6%
    • Realty Income (O +4.1%), Vereit (VER +3%), Omega Healthcare (OHI +3.2%), Welltower (HCN +3.5%), HCP (HCP +2.7%), Universal Health (UHT +4.4%), W.P. Carey (WPC +2%), Lexington Realty (LXP +2.5%), Essex Property (ESS +1.2%), Aimco (AIV +1.5%), General Growth (GGP +2.6%), Brixmor (BRX +1.6%), Federal Realty (FRT +1.8%), Kimco (KIM +1.2%), Public Storage (PSA +1.4%), Life Storage (LSI +1.4%), Boston Properties (BXP +1.2%), Stag Industrial (STAG +2.4%).
    | 11:51 AM | 22 Comments
  • 11:08 AM
    • Speaking in D.C., former Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi says it remains to be seen if this week's deal to cut production is successful.
    • In addition to his acknowledgement of "cheating" on caps, Al-Naimi notes there's still plenty of shale oil to be found across the globe.
    • WTI crude this morning is higher by another 0.7% to $51.41 per barrel, and in line for a weekly gain of more than 11%.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, OLO, UHN, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX
    | 11:08 AM | 33 Comments
  • 10:39 AM
    • On balance, the jobs report was a strongish one, with job gains about inline, but the unemployment rate tumbling all the way to 4.6% from 4.9%.
    • A November whoosh lower in gold combined with big gains in bond yields and the dollar, however, likely discounted quite a bit of good economic news, and traders are using this morning's report as an opportunity to lighten up. Thus, gold is ahead 0.7% to $1,177.40 per ounce, while yields and the greenback both head south. The 10-year Treasury yield is off seven basis points to 2.38% and the dollar index is down 0.25%.
    • ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GTU, UGLD, GLL, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, GYEN, GEUR, UBG, QGLDX
    | 10:39 AM | 7 Comments
  • 9:21 AM
    • Canada added 10.7K jobs in November vs. expectations for a loss of 20K. The unemployment rate dipped to a five-month low of 6.8% vs. expectations for unchanged at 7%.
    • Digging deeper finds a loss of 8.7K full-time jobs, but a gain of 19.4K part-time positions.
    • The loonie (NYSEARCA:FXC) is active (also dealing with the U.S. jobs numbers), but currently higher by 0.25% vs. the greenback.
    • ETFs: EWC, CNDA, EWCS, FCAN, QCAN, HEWC
    | 9:21 AM
  • 9:16 AM
    • That this has happened should be of zero surprise given the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield from 1.70% to 2.40%, and the cyclical nature of investor attitudes.
    • Markit takes note of the wave of short-selling in fixed-income ETFs on both sides of the Atlantic, with total demand to borrow ETFs jumping by one third. Shorts are most active in high yield, emerging market, and other long-dated ETFs.
    • The most shorted ETFs are the two big junk bond funds (HYG, JNK), and shorts actually slipped a little in November for HYG, but rose 14% for JNK (hedgers likely make up a sizable number of shorts, one would think). Shorts in the investment-grade LQD fell 56%.
    • Shorts in the iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Market Bond Fund (NYSEARCA:EMB) soared 111%.
    | 9:16 AM | 2 Comments
  • 8:42 AM
    • The first thing to check on hearing the news of a plunge in the unemployment rate to 4.6% from 4.9% would be the labor force participation rate, and indeed that did slip to 62.7% from 62.8%.
    • The number of persons "unemployed" of 7.4M compares to 7.79M a month earlier and 7.9M a year ago (when the UE rate was 5.0%).
    • The broader U-6 unemployment rate fell to 9.3% from 9.5%. One year ago, it was 9.9%.
    • Turning to the Establishment Data, nonfarm payrolls grew an inline 178K, but October's 161K gain was revised down to 142K. September, however, was revised higher by 17K jobs to 208K.
    • Average hourly earnings slipped $0.03 to $25.89; on a Y/Y basis, they're up 2.5%.
    • The average workweek was flat at 34.4 hours.
    • Treasury yields have turned lower since the print, the 10-year now down 4.2 basis points to 2.40%. TLT +0.6%, TBT -1.2%
    • Stock index futures have trimmed losses, with the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPYdown 0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQoff 0.2%.
    • Previously: Job gains inline; UE rate plunges to 4.6% (Dec. 2)
    | 8:42 AM | 6 Comments
  • 8:06 AM
    | 8:06 AM | 10 Comments
  • 8:01 AM
    • "The bar was so low on Trump to the point people were expecting markets will go down 80% and global depression - and now this guy is the Wizard of Oz and so expectations are high," Jeff Gundlach tells Reuters. "There's no magic here."
    • Back to reality: Government programs take time to implement, rising mortgage rates aren't great for the "psyche" of the middle class, and HRC supporters are in no mood to spend money.
    • "There is going to be a buyer's remorse period," he says. Yields (TLT, TBT) have peaked and should move sideways from here, the dollar (UUP, UDN) is going to fall, and gold's (NYSEARCA:GLD) next move is higher.
    • DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX, TOTL) is up 2.12% through the end of November, besting 63% of peers. On a three-year basis, it's up 3.46% annualized, topping 93% of peers.
    • Other notable funds: DBL, OPP, DBLFX
    | 8:01 AM | 35 Comments
  • 7:31 AM
    • The risk/reward on AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) is no longer compelling at current levels," says Douglas Harter, downgrading to Neutral from Outperform, and cutting the price target to $19.50 from $21 (last night's close $18.09).
    • He expects a whopping 7.8% decline in book value through November (to be announced on Dec. 12). This comes against his forecast of a 2.6% decrease in book value for the sector (NYSEARCA:REM) as a whole, and flat economic return (defined as the change in book value plus the dividend) for Q4.
    • As far as AGNC's relative valuation at the moment, it trades for 91% of tangible book vs. just 84% for fellow sector giant Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY). The sector as a whole trades at 91% of book. He's also cutting Annaly's PT to $11 from $11.50, along with CYS Investment (NYSE:CYS) to $8.50 from $9. Chimera Investment (NYSE:CIM), however, gets its PT boosted to $17 from $15.50 to reflect strong incremental returns.
    • Harter and team's top picks remain those names with less exposure to interest rate risk, better historical track records, and lower book value volatility: Two Harbors (NYSE:TWO), New Residential (NYSE:NRZ), PennyMac (NYSE:PMT), and Starwood (NYSE:STWD).
    | 7:31 AM | 31 Comments
  • 7:15 AM
    | 7:15 AM
  • 6:34 AM
    • There is a rerun of the Austrian Presidential election today, with two candidates at opposite ends of the political spectrum competing for the largely ceremonial post.
    • Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer will face off against the Green Party's Alexander Van der Bellen after the last election results were annulled following concerns over how some postal ballots were handled. Polls show them neck-and-neck.
    • ETFs: EWO
    | 6:34 AM | 13 Comments
  • 5:13 AM
    • As U.S. airlines began flights this week to Havana, the long-awaited travel surge to Cuba is already in doubt.
    • Citing weak demand, American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) has announced it will cut nearly 25% of its flights to the island in 2017.
    • "This was done purely to remain competitive in the market," spokesman Matt Miller said. "We can't speculate on what the next administration may do."
    • Related CEF: CUBA
    | 5:13 AM | 26 Comments
  • 5:01 AM
    • Italy will hold a constitutional referendum on Sunday that has become a de facto vote on whether the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi should keep his job.
    • What's it about? The reforms would remove power from the Senate to enable laws to be passed quickly and efficiently.
    • The latest polls showing the overhauls are likely to be rejected has investors worried about a "financial meltdown" as Italy's shaky banking sector would have a tough time raising much-needed capital.
    • ETFs: EWI, HEWI, DBIT
    • Related bank tickers: OTCPK:UNCFF, OTCPK:IITSF, OTCPK:IITOF, OTC:MDIBF, OTCPK:ISNPY, OTCPK:BPESY, OTC:UNCFY, OTCPK:MDIBY, OTCPK:BPESF
    | 5:01 AM | 35 Comments
  • 3:21 AM
    • Theresa May is "extremely confident" she can trigger the Article 50 process to leave the EU by the end of March even if she loses a Supreme Court appeal next week.
    • Former members of the Remain campaign have told FT that a feared full-blown parliamentary revolt will not materialize and pro-EU MPs will instead wage a war over the "Great Repeal Bill" to bring EU law into domestic legislation.
    • ETFs: EWU, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU, EWUS
    | 3:21 AM | 1 Comment
  • 3:05 AM
    • Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn has been proclaimed the new King of Thailand after the recent passing of his father, who reigned for seven decades.
    • The country's benchmark stock index has climbed about 7% since Bhumibol's death and the economic impact from the mourning period appears limited, with the Bank of Thailand leaving its growth forecast for 2016 unchanged at 3.2%.
    • ETFs: THD, TTF
    | 3:05 AM
  • 2:28 AM
    • Francois Hollande will not seek re-election for a second term in France's 2017 Presidential election, injecting new uncertainty into next year's race.
    • "Today I am aware of the risk of not being able to unite" people behind my candidacy, he said from the Elysee Palace.
    • Another leftist candidate will now be sought to take on conservative Francois Fillon and far-right leader Marine Le Pen.
    • ETFs: EWQ
    | 2:28 AM | 2 Comments
  • Thursday, December 1, 2016

  • 4:32 PM
    • At issue according to the SEC was the mismarking of securities in Pimco's Total Return ETF (NYSEARCA:BOND). Bill Gross was the manager at that time.
    • The preliminary agreement includes a penalty, disgorgement of management fees, and interest.
    • Source: WSJ
    | 4:32 PM
  • 3:44 PM
    • Prosecutors pursing corruption at Petrobas (PBR -2.9%) have threatened to resign over a bill being fast-tracked through Congress which would allow prosecutors and judges to be the focus of charges.
    • Source: FT
    • The new law, say some (prosecutors and judges) will have the effect of curbing investigations. Analysts say the bill is an attempt by lawmakers to stop the Petrobras probe from spreading to them.
    • President Michel Temer has not yet committed as to whether he would sign the bill.
    • The Bovespa is lower by 3.9%. EWZ -5.9%, VALE -2.9%, ITUB -6.2%, BSBR -10%
    | 3:44 PM | 12 Comments
  • 12:22 PM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up another seven basis points to 2.46%, and bank investors continue to wrap their arms around the idea that real regulatory loosening is on the way. The XLF is higher by 1.7% vs. the S&P 500 being flat. KBE +2.15%, KRE +2%.
    • Bank of America (BAC +3%), Citigroup (C +1.7%), JPMorgan (JPM +2.2%), MetLife (MET +2.2%), Voya Financial (VOYA +3.3%), Northern Trust (NTRS +3.5%).
    • Oil is now ahead 4.6% to $51.72, helping the XLE to another 2.1% advance.
    • Tech (QQQ -1.4%) continues to struggle. Its decline today puts it lower by 1.1% since the election vs. the S&P's 2.8% advance, a 10% gain for the XLE, and a 14.5% move for the XLF.
    | 12:22 PM | 15 Comments
  • 12:12 PM
    • VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:ANGL) - $0.1317. 30-Day Sec yield 5.32%.
    • VanEck Vectors Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:HYEM) - $0.1234. 30-Day Sec yield 6.48%.
    • VanEck Vectors Preferred Securities Ex Financials ETF (NYSEARCA:PFXF) - $0.0904. 30-Day Sec yield 6.16%.
    • VanEck Vectors ChinaAMC China Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:CBON) - $0.0510. 30-Day Sec yield 2.27%.
    • VanEck Vectors Treasury-Hedged High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:THHY) - $0.0911. 30-Day Sec yield 4.94%.
    • Payable Dec. 7; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1. 30-Day Sec yield as of 11/30/2016.
    | 12:12 PM
  • 12:11 PM
    • VanEck Vectors Pre-Refunded Municipal Index ETF (NYSEARCA:PRB) - $0.1720. 30-Day Sec yield 0.98%.
    • VanEck Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:EMLC) - $0.0762. 30-Day Sec yield 5.94%.
    • VanEck Vectors Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF (NYSEARCA:FLTR) - $0.0268. 30-Day Sec yield 1.38%.
    • VanEck Vectors EM Investment Grade (NYSEARCA:IGEM) - $0.0580. 30-Day Sec yield 3.73%.
    • VanEck Vectors Emerging Markets Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:EMAG) - $0.0800. 30-Day Sec yield 4.35%.
    • VanEck Vectors CEF Municipal Income ETF (NYSEARCA:XMPT) - $0.1186. 30-Day Sec yield 5.44%.
    • VanEck Vectors International High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:IHY) - $0.0940. 30-Day Sec yield 5.02%.
    • Payable Dec. 7; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1. 30-Day Sec yield as of 11/30/2016.
    | 12:11 PM
  • 12:09 PM
    • VanEck Vectors Intermediate Municipal Index ETF (NYSEARCA:ITM) - $0.0431. 30-Day Sec yield 2.20%.
    • VanEck Vectors AMT-Free 12-17 Year Municipal Index ETF (BATS:ITML) - $0.0412. 30-Day Sec yield 2.69%.
    • VanEck Vectors AMT-Free 6-8 Year Municipal Index ETF (BATS:ITMS) - $0.0268. 30-Day Sec yield 1.80%.
    • VanEck Vectors Long Municipal Index ETF (NYSEARCA:MLN) - $0.0529. 30-Day Sec yield 3.03%.
    • VanEck Vectors Short Municipal Index ETF (NYSEARCA:SMB) - $0.0154. 30-Day Sec yield 1.26%.
    • VanEck Vectors Short High-Yield Municipal Index ETF (NYSEARCA:SHYD) - $0.0562. 30-Day Sec yield 3.10%.
    • VanEck Vectors High-Yield Municipal Index ETF (NYSEARCA:HYD) - $0.1212. 30-Day Sec yield 4.27%.
    • Payable Dec. 7; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1. 30-Day Sec yield as of 11/30/2016.
    | 12:09 PM
  • 12:01 PM
    • SPDR Dorsey Wright Fixed Income Allocation ETF (NASDAQ:DWFI) - $0.0735. 30-Day Sec yield of 3.79%.
    • SPDR DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income ETF (BATS:EMTL) - $0.1254. 30-Day Sec yield of 3.09%.
    • SPDR DoubleLine Short Duration Total Return Tactical ETF (BATS:STOT) - $0.0893. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.14%.
    • Payable Dec. 9; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1. 30-Day Sec yield as of 11/29/2016.
    | 12:01 PM
  • 12:01 PM
    • SPDR Nuveen Barclays Municipal Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TFI) - $0.0854. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.05%.
    • SPDR Barclays Long Term Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:TLO) - $0.1414. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.72%.
    • SPDR Barclays Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:BNDS) - $0.1259. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.18%.
    • SPDR DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF (NYSEARCA:TOTL) - $0.1260. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.84%.
    • SPDR SSGA Ultra Short Term Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:ULST) - $0.0329. 30-Day Sec yield of 0.91%.
    • SPDR Barclays TIPS ETF (NYSEARCA:IPE) - $0.1294. 30-Day Sec yield of 0.12%.
    • SPDR Barclays 1-10 Year TIPS ETF (NYSEARCA:TIPX) - $0.0188.
    • SPDR Barclays 0-5 Year TIPS ETF (NYSEARCA:SIPE) - $0.0095.
    • Payable Dec. 9; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1. 30-Day Sec yield as of 11/29/2016.
    | 12:01 PM
  • 11:59 AM
    • SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:JNK) - $0.1784. 30-Day Sec yield of 6.12%.
    • SPDR Barclays Long Term Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:LWC) - $0.1427. 30-Day Sec yield of 4.45%.
    • SPDR Barclays Mortgage Backed Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:MBG) - $0.0628. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.89%.
    • SPDR Barclays Short Term Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:SCPB) - $0.0440. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.72%.
    • SPDR Nuveen Barclays Short Term Municipal Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:SHM) - $0.0410. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.10%.
    • SPDR Barclays Short Term High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:SJNK) - $0.1351. 30-Day Sec yield of 5.97%.
    • SPDR Blackstone / GSO Senior Loan ETF (NYSEARCA:SRLN) - $0.1504. 30-Day Sec yield of 3.73%.
    • SPDR Barclays Short Term Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:SST) - $0.0236. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.12%.
    • Payable Dec. 9; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1. 30-Day Sec yield as of 11/29/2016.
    | 11:59 AM
  • 11:57 AM
    • SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSEARCA:BIL) - $0.0210. 30-Day Sec yield of 0.18%.
    • SPDR Barclays Issuer Scored Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:CBND) - $0.0825. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.71%.
    • SPDR BofA Merrill Lynch Crossover Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:CJNK) - $0.0937. 30-Day Sec yield of 3.61%.
    • SPDR Barclays Convertible Securities ETF (NYSEARCA:CWB) - $0.2670. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.43%.
    • SPDR Barclays Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF (NYSEARCA:FLRN) - $0.0314. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.10%.
    • SPDR Nuveen S&P High Yield Municipal Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:HYMB) - $0.1851. 30-Day Sec yield of 3.97%.
    • SPDR Barclays Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:ITE) - $0.0588. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.33%.
    • SPDR Barclays Intermediate Term Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:ITR) - $0.0740. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.52%.
    • Payable Dec. 9; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1. 30-Day Sec yield as of 11/29/2016.
    | 11:57 AM
  • 11:52 AM
    • Markets "are still trying to find a home," for the world surplus, Dave Marshall of Fist Choice Commodities tells Bloomberg. Down 1.4% to $3.97 per bushel, wheat is on track for its sixth straight decline, with the USDA forecasting record world inventories for 2016-17, and U.S. stockpiles at their highest in 29 years.
    • March corn is also down another 1.4% to $3.4375 per bushel.
    • ETFs: CORN, JJG, WEAT, GRU, WEET
    | 11:52 AM
  • 10:55 AM
    • It's been rumored for some weeks that Bank of Mexico Governor Agustin Carstens was a leading candidate to head the Bank for International Settlements, and Reuters is now reporting it's a done deal for July 2017.
    • Carstens had previously almost landed the top IMF job, but was beat out by Christine Lagarde.
    • His new job comes with a considerable pay upgrade - nearly $750K annually vs. about $150K to lead the Mexican central bank.
    • EWW -0.75%
    | 10:55 AM | 1 Comment
  • 10:31 AM
    | 10:31 AM | 31 Comments
  • 10:21 AM
    • The price of oil pushed through $50 per barrel today, and is currently posting a 2.9% advance on the session at $50.91.
    • The S&P 500 is flat and Nasdaq is down 0.45%, but the XLE has tacked on another 1.8% to yesterday's big rise.
    • Mid-cap movers: Enerplus (ERF +8.2%), Southwestern Energy (SWN +7.9%), Range Resources (RRC +5.3%), Weatherford (WFT +7.1%), Ensco (ESV +8.2%), Crescent Point (CPG +6.3%).
    • Among the large players: Exxon (XOM +1.1%), Chevron (CVX +2%), Shell (RDS.A +2.2%), (RDS.B +2.3%), BP (BP +2.4%), ConocoPhillips (COP +2%), Marathon (MRO +3.1%), Halliburton (HAL +2.3%)
    | 10:21 AM | 55 Comments
  • 10:06 AM
    • Guggenheim CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:FXA) declares $0.04641/share monthly dividend.
    • Payable Dec. 8; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1.
    | 10:06 AM
  • 9:47 AM
    • The global bond rout picks up steam this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield up another 5.3 basis points to 2.441%, the 10-year Bund up 4.8 bps to 0.324%, and 10-year yields in Italy, Spain, and the U.K. higher by similar amounts.
    • TLT -1.1%, TBT +2.2%
    • Rolling around the minds of fixed-income investors is incoming Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's consideration of locking in still-historically-low interest rates through the issuance of 50- or 100-year government bonds. At the pace rates are climbing, he better hurry.
    • ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, PTY, PDI, PCI, RCS, ACG, PCN, PKO, EVV, GIM, BNDX, DBL, BTZ, ERC, HTR, FAM, PPT, MMT, GDF, FTF, SCHZ, BWX, PCM, KMM
    | 9:47 AM | 38 Comments
  • 8:30 AM
    • Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:BSV) - $0.0984. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.44%.
    • Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:BIV) - $0.1758. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.52%.
    • Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:BLV) - $0.2986. 30-Day Sec yield of 3.83%.
    • Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA:BND) - $0.1603. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.23%.
    • Payable Dec. 7; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1. 30-Day Sec yield as of 11/30/2016.
    | 8:30 AM
  • 8:26 AM
    • Gaming revenue in Macau increased 14.4% in October to 18.8B patacas ($2.353B), according to data from the Macau Gaming and Inspection Coordination Bureau.
    • The monthly tally is higher than the consensus estimate from analysts for a 11% gain and marks the best monthly growth rate since February 2014, although it came against a comparable from last year that was the low point for the Macau slump.
    • "Visitation is starting to grow again and more importantly, people are staying longer," notes CLSA analyst Marcus Liu. Melco Crown chief Lawrence Ho says the region is seeing a "natural" recovery.
    • Macau casino stocks: Wynn Macau (OTCPK:WYNMF, OTCPK:WYNMY, WYNN), Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYY, OTCPK:SCHYF, LVS), MGM China (OTCPK:MCHVF, OTCPK:MCHVY, MG), Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF), SJM Holdings (OTCPK:SJMHF, OTCPK:SJMHY), Melco Crown (NASDAQ:MPEL).
    • Related ETF: BJK.
    | 8:26 AM | 16 Comments
  • 8:09 AM
    | 8:09 AM | 2 Comments
  • 7:25 AM
    | 7:25 AM | 4 Comments
  • 5:50 AM
    • Russia is ready to cooperate with the new U.S. leadership next year, President Vladimir Putin said during his annual state of the nation address in the Kremlin.
    • He also stated that "internal problems" were the main reason for the country's economic malaise and GDP was on track to shrink 0.6% this year.
    • Annual inflation is expected to fall below 6% and reach the central bank's target of 4% in 2017.
    • ETFs: RSX, RUSL, RUSS, ERUS, RSXJ, RBL
    | 5:50 AM | 2 Comments
  • 5:40 AM
    • The oil club is dizzy with its own success after a harmonious meeting in Vienna, where it surprised the world by agreeing to its first production cut in eight years.
    • Crude prices up 12%? Check. Saudi Arabia and Iran in agreement? Check. OPEC and Russia working together? Check.
    • The big question now is whether all these cuts will be implemented. Meanwhile, crude is up over $50 a barrel, lifting energy shares in its slipstream.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX
    | 5:40 AM | 5 Comments
  • 5:12 AM
    | 5:12 AM | 1 Comment
  • 2:44 AM
    • Appealing to the unions? Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has hiked public sector pay for the first time in seven years just days ahead of the Italian constitutional referendum on which he has staked his political future.
    • Public sector pay has been frozen since 2009, while Italy struggled to rein in its burgeoning public debt, the highest in the eurozone after Greece.
    • ETFs: EWI, HEWI, DBIT
    | 2:44 AM | 2 Comments
  • Wednesday, November 30, 2016

  • 4:54 PM
    • NuShares Enhanced Yield U.S.Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:NUAG) declares $0.0535/share monthly dividend, -6.5% decrease from prior dividend of $0.0572.
    • Forward yield 2.64%
    • Payable Dec. 7; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1.
    | 4:54 PM
  • 3:58 PM
    • Some economists had expected a 50 basis point cut in the Selic rate to 13.5%, but the central bank opted for a 25 basis point move. Nevertheless, a cycle is underway, as this is the second rate reduction in two months.
    • Prior to October's move, there hadn't been a rate cut in four years.
    • Giving room for the central bank to move is a noticeable slowing in inflation - to 7.9% in October from nearly 11% at the start of the year (the target is 4.5%).
    • Then there's the economy - expected to contract 3.5% this year after shrinking 3.8% in 2015.
    • EWZ +1.35% on the session, +63% for the year.
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRZU, EWZS, BZQ, BRAQ, BRAZ, UBR, DBBR, FBZ
    | 3:58 PM
  • 3:06 PM
    | 3:06 PM | 8 Comments
  • 3:05 PM
    • The October Prices Index for agricultural production, down 6.6% from the Sept. 2016 index and 9.3% below the October 2015 index.
    • The crop production index decreased 5.4% M/M to 79.5 & livestock index decreased 7.1% to 82.4.
    • Food grains +6.4% M/M and -23.0% Y/Y.
    • Feed grains +0.9% M/M and -11.0% Y/Y.
    • Oilseeds -1.1% M/M and +5.5% Y/Y.
    • Fruits and nuts +2.4% M/M and -0.9% Y/Y.
    • Other crop -3.1% M/M and -1.2% Y/Y.
    • Related ETFs: DBA, RJA, DAG, JJA, AGA, AGF, FUD, USAG, UAG, DIRT, TAGS, ADZ
    | 3:05 PM
  • 2:57 PM
    • Italian shares have been under considerable pressure of late on concern about this weekend's referendum, but the FTSE MIB is far outperforming other indices today with a 2.25% advance.
    • Many are expecting a "no" vote, which could lead to the resignation of the prime minister, and even more pressure on the country's teetering banks.
    • The sharp reversal in Italian shares today (and yesterday) suggests perhaps a few are placing bets on a surprise outcome. MarketWatch notes EWI is ahead 1.8% today on sharply higher volume, and the $432M fund has seen $38M of inflows over the last week compared to nearly $400M exiting YTD.
    • Also on the move is the iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Italy ETF (HEWI +2.3%).
    | 2:57 PM | 3 Comments
  • 2:14 PM
    • Retail Metrics: The retail industry specialist expects chain stores to report a 1.1% increase in comparable sales during November. The estimate on October retail comparable sales was revised up to 1.5% from 1.0%. Both marks arrive against a deflation and low traffic headwind in the sector.
    • NPD Group: The research firm plays meteorologist by warning that the lack of "true" winter weather will hit some apparel and shoe sellers.
    • FBR Capital: The firm points to a strong month for Bath & Body Works (NYSE:LB).
    • Piper Jaffray: The retail analyst team is cautiously optimistic that Costco (NASDAQ:COST) is off to a good start.
    • November has been a stellar month for Target (NYSE:TGT) and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), up 16% and 18% respectively. Both retailers trade with a ~14 forward PE ratio which has some traders buzzing that's still room left to run.
    • Amazon dominated a lot of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday talk, but it was Wayfair (W +4.6%) that may have posted the most impressive online sales growth vs. expectations. Shares of Wayfair are still 28% below their 52-week high, although valuation isn't for the feint of heart.
    • At home on Seeking Alpha, there's been some good discusssion on the impact of the reduction of SNAP benefits (nutrition assistance) in the U.S. on the retail sector. Tomorrow's earnings report from Dollar General (NYSE:DG) and the firm's conference call Q&A could shine a light on that wildcard.
    • Retail ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXD, FDIS, RCD, PMR, CNDF, FTXD, JHMC, IBUY.
    • Previously: Black Friday channel checks show pockets of strength (Nov. 28)
    • Previously: Department store sales in positive territory for November (Nov. 29)
    • Previously: Cyber Monday wrap and retail outperformers (Nov. 29)
    | 2:14 PM | 2 Comments
  • 1:35 PM
    • Lawmakers in Japan have reopened debate on allowing casino gambling.
    • The effort to approve casino development has the support of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party, but will need extra votes from members of coalition partner Komeit to pass.
    • The initial bill being considered is a "decriminalization" law, while a casino gambling implementation bill will follow if the initiative stays on track.
    • CLSA thinks Japan could generate $40B in annual gambling revenue.
    • Casino operators with an eye on Japan include Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF), Melco Crown (NASDAQ:MPEL), SJM Holdings (OTCPK:SJMHY, OTCPK:SJMHF), Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS), Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) and MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM).
    • Related ETF: BJK.
    | 1:35 PM | 14 Comments
  • 12:11 PM
    • Those getting mortgages prior to last few weeks were "likely the last" to lock in at historically low rates, says the NAR's Larry Yun following this morning's disappointing Pending Home Sales report.
    • That report was for October, but in more current news, mortgage applications dove another 9.4% in the week ended Nov. 25 (seasonally adjusted). They've been on a downward track for a few weeks, with the speed mostly picking up amid the sharp rise in rates since the election.
    • Turning to rates, the 10-year Treasury yield is carving out a new 12-month-plus high, up 11 basis points to 2.40%.
    • The S&P 500 is flat, but the ITB is down 1.8%, and XHB 1.2%.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL -2.1%), Lennar (LEN -3.4%), Pulte (PHM -1.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI -3.8%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC -2.1%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC -1.5%)
    | 12:11 PM | 13 Comments
  • 11:45 AM
    • While the pick of ex-Goldmanite and Hollywood player Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary can hardly be called "draining the swamp," Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson says it should make Wall Street happy.
    • In his first public comments after being selected, Mnuchin promised to "kill" swaths of Dodd-Frank.
    • Also making Wall Street (and other bankers/insurers/brokers) happy today is another big move higher in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 10 basis points to 2.394%.
    • The S&P 500 is just marginally higher, but the KBE is ahead 1.9%, and the KRE 2%. XLF +1.35%
    • Bank of America (BAC +3.4%), Citigroup (C +1.9%), JPMorgan (JPM +1.5%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1.8%), Morgan Stanley (MS +2.1%), Goldman Sachs (GS +3.9%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +1%), PNC Financial (PNC +1.4%), KeyCorp (KEY +2.2%), Fifth Third (FITB +2.5%), Regions Financial (RF +2.9%), BB&T (BBT +2.4%), SunTrust (STI +2%)
    • MetLife (MET +2%), AIG (AIG +0.8%), Lincoln National (LNC +1.7%), Prudential (PRU +1.1%), Hartford (HIG +1.3%)
    • ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, RYF, FINU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, JHMF, FAZZ, FNCF
    | 11:45 AM | 54 Comments
  • 11:40 AM
    | 11:40 AM | 47 Comments
  • 11:28 AM
    • The Canadian economy grew at a 3.5% annualized rate in Q3, bouncing back from a 1.3% contraction in Q2 (first estimated as a 1.6% decline), and beating expectations for 3.4%.
    • Helping to boost Q3 were energy exports, which grew 6.1% after dropping 5.1% the previous quarter amid the wildfires in western Canada.
    • Encouraged by the report, BMO Capital hikes its GDP estimate for this year to 1.4% from 1.2%, but next year's estimate holds at 2%.
    • "The report is not going to influence rate policy that much," says RBC's Mark Chandler. "The [Bank of Canada] has said it would require a substantial shock to knock it off its current stance."
    • The loonie (NYSEARCA:FXC) is modestly lower vs. the greenback today, buying $0.7436.
    • ETFs: EWC, CNDA, EWCS, FCAN, QCAN, HEWC
    | 11:28 AM
  • 10:31 AM
    | 10:31 AM | 22 Comments
  • 10:24 AM
    • Noting that ArcelorMittal (MT +1.8%) has raised its hot-rolled sheet pricing by $40/ton to $600/ton, J.P. Morgan's Michael Gambardella raises his price targets on several stocks in the U.S. steel industry (SLX +1.5%).
    • He increases his target for AK Steel (AKS +3.1%) to $11 from $8.50, on Nucor (NUE +0.6%) to $70 from $59, on Steel Dynamics (STLD +0.9%) to $41 from $31, on U.S. Steel (X +3.3%) to $37 from $29, and on Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF +1.2%) to $10 from $7, while keeping Overweight ratings on all five stocks.
    • Gambardella says supply cuts in the U.S. from both capacity curtailments and lower imports should support higher U.S. steel prices, and thinks the Trump administration's impact on trade could be "much quicker and more meaningful" than its infrastructure plans.
    | 10:24 AM | 22 Comments
  • 9:50 AM
    | 9:50 AM | 31 Comments
  • 8:52 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield was already higher this morning, possibly helped along by a 7% moonshot in oil on reports of a deal to cut production.
    • The yield jumped further - now up 7 basis points to 2.36% - following the November ADP report showing 216K jobs added vs. just 160K expected, and 147K in October.
    • Other news to consider is Trump's Secretary pick Steven Mnuchin and his promise of tax reform - including both personal and corporate tax cuts - as a first priority.
    • TLT -1.15%, TBT +2% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | 8:52 AM | 6 Comments
  • 8:49 AM
    | 8:49 AM | 28 Comments
  • 8:30 AM
    • Confirming that he's Trump's pick to be Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin (appearing with Trump's Commerce pick Wilbur Ross) tells CNBC his first priority will be tax reform. There will be a middle-class tax cut, he says. As for the corporate rate, Mnuchin and team feel 15% is the right level.
    • On bank regulation: "We have to kill many aspects of Dodd-Frank." KRE +1%, KBE +0.4% premarket
    • On the GSEs: Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) cannot be government-owned. FNMA +7.15%, FMCC +7.6% premarket
    | 8:30 AM | 250 Comments
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