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  • Today - Monday, July 25, 2016

  • 3:05 AM
    | 3:05 AM
  • Sunday, July 24, 2016

  • 8:41 AM
    • Libya's hopes to boost crude exports have been dealt a blow after the head of the National Oil Corporation objected to a deal between the government and local guards involving payments to reopen key ports.
    • "It sets a terrible precedent and will encourage anybody who can muster a militia to shut down a pipeline, an oilfield, or a port, to see what they can extort," Mustafa Sanalla said in a letter to U.N. Libya envoy Martin Kobler.
    • Armed factions and security threats have already helped slash Libya oil output to less than a quarter of the 1.6M bpd seen before the 2011 uprising against Muammar Gaddafi.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILU, OILD, OILX
    | 8:41 AM | 14 Comments
  • 7:50 AM
    • President Tayyip Erdogan is tightening his grip on Turkey, ordering the closure of 2,341 private schools, charities and other institutions in his first decree since imposing a state of emergency after the July 15 failed military coup.
    • Turkey also extended detentions without charges to 30 days and arrested a nephew of Fethullah Gulen, the U.S.-based cleric accused by Ankara of orchestrating the overthrow attempt.
    • ETFs: TUR, TKF
    | 7:50 AM | 20 Comments
  • Saturday, July 23, 2016

  • 12:40 PM
    • Fitch Ratings forecasts solid revenue trends for casino-hotel properties on the Las Vegas Strip as non-gaming amenities continues to drive growth.
    • Properties on the Las Vegas Strip now generate more than 60% of their profit from non-gaming amenities. Fitch says the trend supports the view that Strip resorts are real estate investments and should trade with REIT-like multiples. They are also seen as more attractive than some regional casino stocks in a recession due to the diversified income streams.
    • The ratings agency still exudes some caution on the highly-watched LV market.
    • Fitch on Vegas: "The Caesars' bankruptcy could impact some of its entities and Wynn's Las Vegas expansion could become a burden. New supply from Wynn or others could be problematic in a downturn, as the Strip's RevPAR growth has lagged the national average since the recovery, without new supply since 2010."
    • Full Fitch Ratings report
    • Previously: Asian-themed casinos and NHL hockey on tap for the Vegas Strip (July 9)
    • Related stocks: LVS, MGM, WYNN, FLL, CZR, BYD
    • Related ETF: BJK
    | 12:40 PM
  • Friday, July 22, 2016

  • 6:41 PM
    • Liberty Interactive (QVCA, LVNTA) has wrapped up a spin-off of its CommerceHub subsidiary, making it a separate publicly traded firm.
    • CommerceHub will start trading regular way on Monday, with Series A common (CHUBA) and Series C common (CHUBK) on Nasdaq, and Series B common (CHUBB) on OTC.
    • Liberty will post a deck with information about the spin-off and CommerceHub's capitalization on Monday.
    | 6:41 PM
  • 4:51 PM
    | 4:51 PM | 2 Comments
  • 3:23 PM
    • High-yield has had a major rally this year, but investors are cooling their appetite for junky paper, writes Lisa Abramowicz. To wit: U.S. Xpress Enterprises scrapped a $320M offering earlier this week as investors demanded higher rates for the trucking company than it was willing to pay.
    • It was the first pulled high-yield deal in two months.
    • Alongside this year's rally is a growing speculative-grade default rate - calculated by Moody's at 5.4% this year vs. 2.1% a year ago. Most of this, of course, can be attributed to the commodity sector, particularly energy.
    • Things could go beyond oil and gas though. Noting weakening corporate earnings, a team from UBS has boosted its view of the odds of a U.S. recession, which would likely push that default rate even higher, thus making losers of many high-yield investment strategies.
    • ETFs: HYG, JNK, HIX, DHY, HYLD, PHT, EAD, HYT, JQC, CIK
    | 3:23 PM | 3 Comments
  • 1:15 PM
    • The U.S. oil rig count rose by 14 to 371, according to Baker-Hughes. The gas rig count fell by one to 88, and miscellaneous rigs rose by two, so the total U.S. rig count gained 15 to 462.
    • Oil continues its steady July slide, down 1.9% in today's session to $43.89 per barrel. Black gold has dipped about $10 per barrel since an early June peak.
    • USO -1.5%
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, OLO, UHN, SZO, OLEM, OILD, OILX, OILU
    | 1:15 PM | 40 Comments
  • 10:39 AM
    • The focus on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) turns to the Gigafactory unveiling next week with a grand opening scheduled for July 29. The event will include a tour of the massive facility and presumably more details on EV battery production plans.
    • The Gigafactory buzz could also increase the focus on lithium supply and demand questions. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both expect lithium carbonate demand to almost double by 2025, although picking out potential winners and losers is no easy process.
    • Bacanora Minerals (OTC:BCRMF) already has a long-term contract with Tesla, while other companies such as Albermarle (NYSE:ALB), FMC (NYSE:FMC), Nemaska Lithium (OTCQX:NMKEF), SQM (NYSE:SQM), Oroplata Resources (OTCPK:ORRP), Orocobre (OTCPK:OROCF), Critical Elements (OTCQX:CRECF), Lithium X Energy (OTCQB:LIXXF), and American Lithium Minerals (OTCPK:AMLM) have been bandied around on Seeking Alpha as potential lithium plays. Those names and more are on watch next week for volatility.
    • There's also the Global X Lithium ETF (NYSEARCA:LIT) to watch as a catch-all.
    | 10:39 AM | 53 Comments
  • 7:22 AM
    | 7:22 AM | 9 Comments
  • 5:57 AM
    • Business activity in the eurozone did not fall as much as expected in July, despite Brexit jitters and the Bastille Day massacre, as Markit's flash PMI for the region dropped to 52.9 from June's 53.1.
    • Meanwhile, sterling is down 0.8% to $1.3133 after the British economy shrank at its steepest pace since early 2009, with the flash U.K. composite PMI falling to 47.7 from 52.4.
    • "At this level, the survey is signaling a 0.4% contraction of the [U.K.] economy in Q3," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.
    • ETFs: EWU, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU, EWG, DAX, GF, EWQ, DXGE, DBGR, CEE, HEWG, TRF, GUR, EWGS, ESR, FGM, QDEU
    | 5:57 AM | 3 Comments
  • 5:23 AM
    • U.S. prosecutors have linked Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak to hundreds of millions of dollars allegedly siphoned from one of the country's economic development funds, according to a lawsuit seeking the seizure of more than $1B of assets from 1MDB.
    • The move sets up a rare confrontation between U.S. prosecutors and an important partner in trade, the fight against terrorism and China's military expansion in Southeast Asia.
    • ETFs: EWM
    | 5:23 AM | 1 Comment
  • 4:47 AM
    • French President Francois Hollande has given U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May a choice: Accept unlimited immigration from the EU or lose access to its single market.
    • "There can be no free movement of goods, free movement of capital, free movement of services if there is no free movement of people,” he said at a press conference.
    • May also confirmed that the triggering of Article 50 won’t come this year as her government works out its negotiating position.
    • ETFs: EWU, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | 4:47 AM | 14 Comments
  • 4:34 AM
    • Turkey has entered its second day under a state of emergency as President Erdogan signaled that the three-month period approved by parliament may not be enough to complete a purge of those responsible for last week's failed coup.
    • Erdogan and his top aides say the powers won’t be used to infringe rights and freedoms, a concern that has strained ties between NATO allies.
    • ETFs: TUR, TKF
    | 4:34 AM | 16 Comments
  • 3:43 AM
    | 3:43 AM | 2 Comments
  • Thursday, July 21, 2016

  • 12:19 PM
    • The S&P China 500 Index launched in 2015, and is made up of the 500 largest, most liquid Chinese companies, while approximating the composition of the broader Chinese stock market. All share classes - including A-shares - are eligible.
    • WisdomTree (NASDAQ:WETF) and Credit Suisse Asset Management have licensed the index and plan to jointly launch and distribute ETFs across the world which will track it.
    | 12:19 PM | 2 Comments
  • 10:39 AM
    • Airline stocks (JETS -2.8%) are broadly lower following Southwest Airlines' (LUV -8.8%) Q2 earnings miss and downbeat guidance for a 3%-4% decline in Q3 RASM from a 0.6% gain in Q2.
    • Shares also are hurt by warnings from Deutsche Lufthansa (OTCQX:DLAKF, OTCQX:DLAKY) and EasyJet (OTC:EJTTF, OTCQX:ESYJY) that recent terror attacks and political turmoil in Europe were weighing on their businesses.
    • Lufthansa says advance bookings, particularly on longer routes to Europe, "have declined significantly, in particular due to repeated terrorist attacks in Europe and to greater political and economic uncertainty."
    • Easyjet also warns on terrorism, and says the U.K.’s Brexit vote would hurt per-seat revenue, and that foreign exchange and fuel cost effects would add ~£25M ($33M) to full-year expenses.
    • DAL -3.1%, UAL -2.9%, AAL -2%, RYAAY -2.9%, ALK +0.8%, JBLU -2.3%, SAVE -2.6%, HA -1.3%, SKYW -0.2%.
    | 10:39 AM | 14 Comments
  • 10:32 AM
    | 10:32 AM | 17 Comments
  • 9:28 AM
    • Noting the "encouraging resilience" with which markets have handled the Brexit news, Mario Draghi says the ECB will be in better position to assess the fallout in coming months.
    • Live blog
    • While expecting the eurozone economy to continue to move forward at a moderate pace, risks remain to the downside, in part thanks to the Brexit.
    • Asked about the unrelenting bear market in the stock prices of the EU's banks, Draghi says it's "of some significance" to policy makers because it raises the lenders' cost of capital, meaning lending becomes less profitable, meaning less lending. As for bank solvency, he's not too concerned, saying they're in much better shape than they were headed into the financial crisis.
    • The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) has bounced around a bit, but is currently back to flat on the session at $1.1017. The Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) initially dipped hard as Draghi began his press conference, but has returned to a loss of just 0.3%.
    • ETFs: FXE, VGK, EUO, HEDJ, FEZ, ERO, IEV, EPV, EZU, DRR, FEU, EURL, DBEU, ULE, EEA, EUFX, FEP, HEZU, UPV, IEUR, URR, FEEU, ADRU, FIEU, DBEZ, FEUZ, SBEU, HFEZ, HFXE, RFEU, PTEU, GSEU, DEZU, HGEU, FIEE
    | 9:28 AM | 3 Comments
  • 8:26 AM
    • As expected, the ECB left rates unchanged today - the main refinancing rate at 0%, the marginal lending facility at 0.25%, and the deposit rate at -0.40%. QE will continue to run at €80B monthly until at least March 2017.
    • The Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) is lower by 0.35%, and the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) flat at $1.1022.
    • The main event awaits - Mario Draghi's press conference begins in five minutes.
    | 8:26 AM
  • 5:08 AM
    | 5:08 AM
  • 4:57 AM
    • Reinforcing a pattern that has been evident since the June 23 referendum, Britain's Theresa May emphasized on Wednesday she would seek the closest possible economic ties with Germany post-Brexit, but Angela Merkel confirmed she wouldn't enter the negotiating game until the U.K. invokes Article 50.
    • Why? Early discussions would give the British incentives to delay notification, put more chips on the U.K. side of the table and risk dragging out the exit talks indefinitely.
    • ETFs: EWU, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | 4:57 AM | 10 Comments
  • 2:44 AM
    • Turkey's President Erdogan declared a three-month state of emergency Wednesday night, allowing him to sidestep parliament in passing new laws against supporters of Friday's coup and "protect democratic values."
    • The Istanbul stock index is down 9.5% so far this week, and the lira fell as far as 3.0769 vs. the greenback after Standard & Poor's downgraded Turkey's sovereign credit rating and lowered its outlook to "negative."
    • ETFs: TUR, TKF
    | 2:44 AM | 7 Comments
  • Wednesday, July 20, 2016

  • 3:53 PM
    • "Today, our customers are thinking about growing their business again rather than being focused on survival," said Halliburton CEO David Lesar, as the company reported its Q2.
    • The notion of coordinating supply cuts with OPEC is dead, Russia's energy minister told Reuters.
    • The Saudi Aramco CEO told reporters low oil prices won't stop his company from drilling more or nix plans to sell shares.
    • The above suggests those hoping for a "great rebalancing" of the oil market to bail out their long bets might have to wait a little longer as the war for market share goes on, writes Liam Denning.
    • Particularly interesting were the Halliburton comments calling a bottom in shale drilling despite oil still being south of $50 per barrel.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, OLO, UHN, SZO, OLEM, OILX
    | 3:53 PM | 36 Comments
  • 2:04 PM
    • With much of the globe's "safe" sovereign debt trading at negative yields, investors worldwide have been snapping up long-dated Treasurys whose yields positively tower over the alternatives.
    • It's a dangerous game, says Oksana Aronov of JPMorgan, noting the real yield on the U.S. 10-year is negative, the lowest since 1980, and actually lower than similarly-dated Japanese paper.
    • "We’re seeing this tremendous flow into the bond space at a time when the risks are, frankly, unprecedented,” Aronov tells Bloomberg. "There is no free lunch, and on a real basis, you are really not buying something that's of tremendous value."
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is higher by 2.75 basis points today to 1.582%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | 2:04 PM | 8 Comments
  • 1:18 PM
    • A credit correction is "unavoidable," says S&P, noting nearly half of corporate debt issuers are estimated to be highly leveraged. Some believe the correction is already underway, says the team, and could likely stretch for the next few years as defaults spike.
    • Total global corporate debt as of the end of last year was $51.4T and is estimated to hit $75T by 2020.
    • The team coined the term "Crexit" to denote what could be a rapid departure of both lenders and lower-quality borrowers from the debt markets.
    • Previously: Marty Fridson: High yield overvaluation is "staggering" (July 19)
    • ETFs: DHF, GHY, HIO, HYF, HYI, HYB, VTA, FSD, KHI, IHY, PICB, PGHY, IBND, HYXU, IJNK, HHYX, JHY
    | 1:18 PM | 5 Comments
  • 12:30 PM
  • 11:51 AM
    • "We expect a period of heightened unpredictability that could constrain capital inflows into Turkey's externally leveraged economy," says S&P, downgrading the country's credit rating further into junk status - to BB from BB+. The outlook is negative, suggesting the chance of another downgrade in the medium term.
    • Moody's earlier this week placed Turkey on review for a downgrade as it assesses the fallout from last week's coup attempt.
    • TUR -1.6%
    | 11:51 AM
  • 11:16 AM
    • "The producers have sold the hell out of this rally," says Stephen Schork. "The companies that did survive, they've been hedging." Laredo Petroleum, for example, said it hedged more than 2M barrels of 2017 output in July. Drillers overall have boosted bets on falling prices by 29% this year, according to Bloomberg.
    • Drillers are also taking advantage of oil's rally to raise capital - they're selling stock at record speed, raising more than $16B so far this year. “The producers know full well that the oil market is not out of the woods yet," says Again Capital's John Kilduff.
    • To review, the price of oil fell 38% in H2 of 2015, and 49% in H2 of 2014.
    • Meanwhile, gasoline (NYSEARCA:UGA) inventories are so swollen that at least five sea tankers coming into NYC were turned away over the past few weeks. According to the EIA, stockpiles of 240.1M barrels as of July 8 were an all-time seasonal high.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, OLO, UHN, SZO, OLEM, OILD, OILX, OILU
    | 11:16 AM | 5 Comments
  • 10:32 AM
    | 10:32 AM | 23 Comments
  • 10:18 AM
    • Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak scuttles any hope that the world's biggest oil producers would coordinate on output to stem global oversupply, telling Reuters that the country is not discussing coordination with OPEC and that Russian oil output would rise to a 30-year high 542M-544M tons this year.
    • Novak says Russia sees its cooperation with OPEC focusing on the exchange of information and analysis on the global oil market, rather than on coordinating production.
    • Brent crude -1% at $46.20/bbl, while WTI -1.5% at $43.97 after falling as low as $43.69, its lowest intraday level since May 10; the August contract expires at the close of trade today.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM
    | 10:18 AM | 5 Comments
  • 8:11 AM
  • 7:45 AM
    • Could it be the experts were wrong? The U.K.'s unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in the three months ended in May - the lowest level since 2005. Though the numbers predate the Brexit vote, that country's version of the Fed's Beige Book reports a big jump in uncertainty, but no evidence of a sharp slowing in the economy since the vote.
    • Cable is up 0.4% to $1.3165. The FTSE is ahead 0.2%.
    • The Bank of England sat on its hands last week, but promised a rate cut in August. Will it be able to talk its way out of it?
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | 7:45 AM
  • 7:03 AM
    | 7:03 AM | 17 Comments
  • 6:26 AM
    • The Bank of England sees "no clear evidence" that a sharp economic slowdown is yet under way after last month's vote to leave the European Union, though there are signs investment and hiring are being put on hold.
    • Sterling surged to a session high of $1.3157 on the news and better-than-expected jobs data. The U.K. jobless rate fell to 4.9% in the three months to May, marking the lowest level since 2005.
    • ETFs: EWU, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | 6:26 AM | 4 Comments
  • 5:11 AM
    • The greenback is at a four-month high against a basket of currencies, bolstered by strong U.S. data and growing expectations the Fed may raise rates before the end of the year.
    • The dollar index is up 0.2% at 97.271, its highest level since March 10.
    • Fed funds futures rates now suggest a 40% chance of a rate hike in December, compared with less than 20% a few weeks ago.
    • ETFs: UUP, UDN, USDU
    | 5:11 AM | 2 Comments
  • 4:31 AM
    • Around 50,000 Turkish soldiers, police, judges, civil servants and teachers have now been suspended or detained as President Erdogan responds to the coup attempt that almost forced him from power.
    • His crackdown offers stability of sorts, which explains why domestic markets have pared some of their kneejerk losses. But it also engenders uncertainty, causing Turkey's central bank to cut its overnight lending rate by a quarter point to 8.75%.
    • ETFs: TUR, TKF
    | 4:31 AM | 4 Comments
  • 4:12 AM
    • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will meet with Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany today before heading to France to meet with President Francois Hollande.
    • The recent Brexit vote will likely top the agenda in discussions with her EU counterparts.
    • Prior to her first foreign trip as leader, May will take on her opposition parties at Prime Minister's Question time in the House of Commons.
    • ETFs: EWU, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | 4:12 AM | 1 Comment
  • Tuesday, July 19, 2016

  • 6:57 PM
    • Energy MLPs hardly would seem a bargain after posting one of their best-ever quarters, but DA Davidson analyst Poe Fratt thinks there's still some room to run for the group, citing the average yield in the past five and 20 years, plus improving sentiment.
    • Fratt feels the group’s above average yield of 7.07% and yield spread of 548 bps compare favorably with the average yield of 6.3% and average spread of 415 bps over the past five years, as well as the long-term median yield of 6.8% and median spread of 370 bps since 1996.
    • The analyst says his best current ideas are Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE:EPD), which he says “remains well positioned in the current environment,” Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE:MMP) and Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE:SEP).
    • Wells Fargo also recommends MLPs in a new strategy report for their diversification benefits, but it also warns that the sector is a “highly volatile income option."
    • ETFs: AMLP, AMJ, KYN, TYG, KYE, SRV, CEM, MLPI, NML, FEN, NTG, KMF, MLPA, EMLP, FMO, AMZA, FEI, JMF, SRF, CBA, MLPN, GMZ, MLPX, GER, EMO, TTP, CTR, MLPS
    | 6:57 PM | 11 Comments
  • 3:00 PM
    • Despite the post-Brexit moonshot in the stock market, investors are holding an average cash position of 5.8%, the highest level since November 2001, according to BAML's latest fund manager survey.
    • One month ago - in the caution ahead of the Brexit vote - cash levels were 5.7%.
    • BAML's contrarian "cash rule" says when average cash balances top 4.5%, investors are being overly cautious, making stocks a buy.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, USWD
    | 3:00 PM | 18 Comments
  • 2:54 PM
    • For the month of June, the option-adjusted spread on the BAML High Yield Index widened to 621 bps from 597 bps. In the rally since, it tightened all the way to 542 bps.
    • By the fair value estimate of Fridson and team, high-yield was overvalued by 166 bps on June 30 - more than the one standard deviation (126 bps) by which they define extreme overvaluation. By July 15, it was a more staggering 245 bps - nearly two standard deviations from fair value.
    • Source: Amey Stone in Barron's
    • ETFs: HYG, JNK, HIX, DHY, HYLD, PHT, EAD, HYT, JQC, CIK, DSU, HHY
    | 2:54 PM | 10 Comments
  • 12:30 PM
  • 9:10 AM
    • With markets having shrugged off the Brexit vote, Fed officials are growing more confident about raising rates before year-end, and possibly as early as September, writes Jon Hilsenrath.
    • Though no change is nearly assured at the late-July FOMC meeting, the policy statement may signal belief the economy is on more solid ground than when the dovish call was made at the June meeting.
    • That could be a surprise for traders, who have currently priced in only about a 12% chance of a September Fed move.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 1.6 bps this morning to 1.57%. TLT +0.4%, TBT -0.8%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | 9:10 AM | 18 Comments
  • 8:59 AM
    | 8:59 AM | 1 Comment
  • 7:08 AM
    | 7:08 AM | 1 Comment
  • 5:47 AM
    • Annual inflation in the U.K. accelerated in June, fueled by a rise in airfares as soccer fans traveled to France for the 2016 European Championships.
    • The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices climbed 0.5% from a year earlier, up from a 0.3% rise in May.
    • Data was collected before the Brexit, so the recent drop in sterling wasn't captured in the numbers.
    • ETFs: EWU, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | 5:47 AM
  • 5:36 AM
    • German investor confidence deteriorated in July on concern that Britain's decision to leave the EU could weaken the region's fragile economic recovery.
    • The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, which aims to predict economic developments six months ahead, fell to -6.8 from 19.2 in June. That's the lowest level since November 2012.
    • ETFs: EWG, DAX, GF, DXGE, DBGR, HEWG, EWGS, FGM, QDEU
    | 5:36 AM
  • 5:17 AM
    • North Korea has launched three powerful ballistic missiles from its east coast, with the U.S and Japan labeling the tests a clear violation of U.N. resolutions, and South Korea vowing to push for tighter sanctions on Pyongyang. "
    • The ballistic missiles flight went from 500 to 600 kilometers, which is a distance far enough to strike all of South Korea including Busan," the South's military said in a statement.
    • ETFs: EWY, KF, KEF, KORU, DXKW, DBKO, FKO, QKOR, HEWY
    | 5:17 AM | 1 Comment
  • 4:43 AM
    • Moody's has put Turkey's Baa3 credit rating, the lowest level of investment grade, on review for a downgrade to "assess the medium-term impact" of the failed coup on the country's growth and policy-making institutions.
    • It's also likely Turkish citizens won't be granted visa-free travel this year, according to European Commissioner Gunther Oettinger, despite the nation's migration deal with the EU.
    • U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has further stressed that NATO countries had a requirement when it came to democracy and "will measure very carefully what is happening."
    • ETFs: TUR, TKF
    | 4:43 AM | 3 Comments
  • 4:16 AM
    • As Turkey picks up the pieces after Friday's failed coup, new details are emerging of how it unfolded, and just how close the military intervention came to succeeding.
    • In the meantime, the government has detained or suspended nearly 20K members of the police, judiciary and army, and demanded the extradition of Fethullah Gulen, the alleged mastermind of the overthrow attempt.
    • "The U.S. should not harbor a terrorist," declared President Erdogan, threatening to go to war with "any country" that supports the exiled cleric.
    • ETFs: TUR, TKF
    | 4:16 AM | 2 Comments
  • Monday, July 18, 2016

  • 4:04 PM
     
    • Active U.S. equity funds saw an estimated $21.7B in outflows last month, will all passive categories except alternatives experienced net inflows.
    • Commodities were a winner, led by the SPDR Gold Shares with $3.5B of new money.
    • Leading the pack for the 2nd straight month though, were intermediate term bond and foreign large blend funds, with $10.8B and $5.8B of inflows, respectively.
    • Of the top 10 U.S. fund families, only State Street and Vanguard saw inflows for active strategies. Leading the way with inflows on passive were Vanguard ($16.8B) and iShares ($9.9B).
    | 4:04 PM
  • 1:22 PM
    • Publishing for the first time its corporate bond holdings since the expansion of QE, the ECB shows purchases of paper from the likes of Danone, Lufthansa, Glencore, Telecom Italia, and Citycon Oyj.
    • The amounts of individual holdings weren't included, but the ECB, along with the other EU state central banks, have bought about €10.4B worth in total.
    • The buys have likely been a contributor to a decline to a record-new euro investment-grade bond index interest rate to 0.77%. The average premium of corporate to government debt has plunged 118 basis points to its lowest level in a nearly a year.
    • ETFs: PICB, IBND
    | 1:22 PM
  • 1:03 PM
    | 1:03 PM
  • 12:26 PM
    • According to recruitment specialist Reed Group, there have been more than 150K jobs added to its website in the three weeks compared with the same period one year ago.
    • "The situation is surprisingly good," says James Reed. "If a drop in confidence begins to feed through I think we’d be the first to see it."
    • Technology firm CEB Global begs to differ, saying the number of jobs being advertised has halved since the vote.
    • The FTSE 100 climbed another 0.4% today, and the pound is up 0.65% vs. the dollar to $1.3273.
    • ETFs: EWU, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | 12:26 PM
  • 9:18 AM
    • Crude oil prices are lower as the market shrugs off the impact of Turkey's failed coup and turns its attention to bearish fundamentals; WTI -2% at $45.03/bbl, and Brent -1.9% at $46.70.
    • Oil tankers reportedly are loading and unloading cargoes normally at Turkey’s ports and sailing without interruption, and pipeline flows through the country to the Turkish port of Ceyhan also are at the usual levels.
    • BP, operator of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from Azerbaijan via Georgia, confirms that oil flow is uninterrupted.
    • The Turkish Straits, including the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, are one of the world’s major choke points for seaborne crude transit, with ~2.9M barrels of oil passing through daily in 2013, the latest year of available data.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM
    | 9:18 AM
  • 7:30 AM
    | 7:30 AM | 2 Comments
  • 7:19 AM
  • 4:52 AM
    • International Trade Secretary Liam Fox is aiming for a Brexit date of January 1, 2019, but said the time could "be brought forward if necessary."
    • Britain may also seek to curb immigration from the European Union even before it formally leaves the bloc, according to Brexit "Tsar" David Davis.
    • Scotland's Nicola Sturgeon separately confirmed she would not rule out the possibility of Scotland remaining in the EU as well as part of Britain.
    • ETFs: EWU, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | 4:52 AM | 1 Comment
  • 4:10 AM
    | 4:10 AM | 2 Comments
  • 4:01 AM
    • The Istanbul 100 Index slid 4.8% this morning, while the Turkish lira rebounded 3% to 2.9274 vs. the dollar, following Friday's failed coup attempt that left 290 people dead and over 6,000 arrested.
    • NATO allies have thrown their support behind President Erdogan, but tensions are still high over his demand to extradite U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, whom he blamed for the overthrow attempt.
    • Is the West shifting its stance of wanting a thriving democracy in countries like Turkey and Egypt, or at this point, does it just want strength and stability?
    • ETFs: TUR, TKF
    | 4:01 AM | 13 Comments
  • Sunday, July 17, 2016

  • 6:35 AM
    • Mehmet Simsek is telling investors not to worry following Friday's failed military coup, saying the government is in charge and has decided on "all necessary measures" after consulting with the central bank and treasury.
    • Other investing news: The lira plunged 4.8% to 3.0157 per dollar in the largest one-day selloff since 2008, while oil prices rose, climbing 1.3% to $46.28/bbl.
    • Turkish Airlines on Saturday resumed flights from Istanbul's international airport, although some foreign carriers canceled weekend flights (the number of visitors to Turkey fell by 28% in April, marking the biggest drop in 17 years).
    • ETFs: TUR, TKF
    | 6:35 AM | 9 Comments
  • 5:12 AM
    • Saudi nationals connected to the government in Riyadh may have aided some of the 9/11 hijackers, according to the long-classified "28 pages," but U.S. intelligence officials emphasized that they didn't consider it accurate or reliable.
    • The document does "not put forward vetted conclusions, but rather unverified leads that were later fully investigated by the intelligence committee," said Representative Devin Nunes, the committee's Republican chairman.
    • The Kingdom previously warned of a $750B treasury and American asset dump if a bill was passed allowing it to be held responsible in U.S. courts for any role in the Sept. 11 attacks.
    • ETFs: KSA
    | 5:12 AM | 8 Comments
  • Saturday, July 16, 2016

  • 6:52 AM
    • "They will pay a heavy price for their treason," says Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, arriving at Istanbul's airport from vacation in Marmaris. He blames the plot on followers of U.S.-based Islamic preacher and one-time ally Fethullah Gulen.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Dozens of coup backers are among the nearly 200 dead, and nearly 3K military personnel have been arrested, according to pro-Erdogan forces.
    • The presidential post in Turkey has historically been a ceremonial role, with head of state duties centered on the prime minister. Erdogan - who had been PM for more than a decade prior to becoming president - has been trying to transform the presidency into the center of power. The coup plot is likely to give him more ammunition to do so.
    | 6:52 AM | 65 Comments
  • Friday, July 15, 2016

  • 5:38 PM
    • Top gainers, as of 5.25 p.m.: CLS +7.5%. VNR +2.2%. VIIX +2.5%. MRNS +2.0%. USLV +1.6%.
    • Top losers, as of 5.25p.m.: FOE -8.9%. MGA -6.5%. INSY -3.1%. CLD -3.8%. NUS -3.5%.
    | 5:38 PM
  • 4:14 PM
    | 4:14 PM
  • 3:54 PM
    • The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSEARCA:TUR) has taken a sharp turn, off 2.5% in the last few minutes, amid chatter about unusual military activity in the country as President Erdogan is on holiday.
    • "Possibly a coup, or an attack," tweets the Financial Times' Alex Barker. "Jets in Ankara. Troops in streets."
    • Forces have closed off bridges in Istanbul, he adds.
    | 3:54 PM | 14 Comments
  • 3:54 PM
    • Reports of the Army being deployed in Istanbul, blocking two key bridges in the city, have raised chatter of a possible military coup. TUR -2.6%
    • Update at 3:55: Further reports say nationwide martial law has been declared by the Turkish Army.
    • Updated at 4:10: Reuters is reporting the Turkish prime minister as saying military action is being taken without his order.
    • More from the PM: According to the AP, PM Binali Yildirim says a group within the military attempted a coup, but it will not be successful.
    • Updated 4:39 p.m.: In a statement, Turkey's military says it has taken over the country for "democratic order, human rights." It's seized control of Ataturk airport in Istanbul. TUR, -2.5% into the close, is off 6.1% after hours.
    | 3:54 PM | 112 Comments
  • 3:28 PM
    • "They’re out there scrounging through the dumpster looking for yield,” says one strategist. "When you have artificially low rates, you force people to go out and look for things that they normally wouldn’t.”
    • High-yield mutual funds flew off the shelves this week, with $4.35B in deposits - the largest in more than four months. Looking at individual issues, a $375M bond sold by Valvoline drew $4.5B in orders, allowing the issuer to cut the yield on the offering by as much as 50 basis points.
    • With $12T of bonds globally offering a negative yield, what's an investor to do?
    • ETFs: HYG, JNK, HIX, DHY, HYLD, PHT, EAD, HYT, JQC, CIK, DSU, HHY, SJB, NHS, ACP, PHF, FHY, MCI, KIO
    | 3:28 PM | 3 Comments
  • 2:55 PM
    • There aren't a whole lot of catalysts for bank stocks unless there's a sustained rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, says FBR's Paul Miller. "I'm going to be buying these things all day long," will be investors' attitude once yields do move higher.
    • Until then, one might have a look at those with high exposure to mortgages - Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), and PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC) - as they stand to benefit from the refinancing boom. This has risks as well as refi booms inevitably burn themselves out.
    • ETFs: XLF, KBE, KRE
    | 2:55 PM | 20 Comments
  • 2:48 PM
    • "Investors have shunned equity funds year-to-date, but are now stampeding into the asset class for fear of missing out," says BAML's Michael Hartnett, as $10.8B poured into equity funds during the week ending July 13 - the highest in nine months. U.S. funds saw inflows of $12.6B, while Europe saw a record outflow of $5.8B - its 23rd consecutive week of outflows.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, USWD
    | 2:48 PM | 3 Comments
  • 2:27 PM
    • The number of U.S. oil drilling rigs rose by 6 to 357 for the third straight week of increases and the sixth gain in seven weeks, according to Baker Hughes' latest survey.
    • The overall rig count, which includes one additional gas rig to 89, now totals 447, up from a low of 404 rigs in May, when the industry started putting rigs back into operation after many months of reductions during the oil bust.
    • Despite this week’s jump, the oil rig count is down 78% from its peak of 1,609 in October 2014.
    • ETFs: USO, UNG, OIL, UWTI, UGAZ, UCO, DGAZ, DWTI, SCO, BNO, BOIL, DBO, GAZ, DTO, USL, KOLD, UNL, DNO, OLO, SZO, DCNG, OLEM
    | 2:27 PM | 42 Comments
  • 2:24 PM
    • Same-store sales growth in the restaurant sector fell 1.1% in June, according to Black Box Intelligence.
    • Same-store traffic was down 3.5% Y/Y during the month and 3.0% for all of Q2. The worst numbers were posted in the Southwest part of the U.S. That data point, along with the recent issues at Taco Bell (weak Q2 U.S. sales) and Chipotle (survey results), raises questions on how Chuy's Holdings (NASDAQ:CHUY), Qdoba (NASDAQ:JACK), and Del Taco (NASDAQ:TACO) fared during the quarter.
    • The weak month of same-store sales growth also puts a spotlight on McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) and Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) to see if they matched their recent performances in the U.S.
    • Earlier sector news: Restaurants see some relief on commodity costs (July 15)
    • Related stocks: EAT, WEN, SONC, QSR, CMG, NDLS, PLKI, BOBE, BLMN, RT, TXRH, RRGB, ZOES.
    • Related ETF: BITE.
    | 2:24 PM | 9 Comments
  • 1:18 PM
    • SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) announces monthly distribution of $0.1348.
    • 30-day SEC yield of 2.35% (as of 7/13/2016).
    • Payable Aug. 15; for shareholders of record July 19; ex-div July 15.
    | 1:18 PM
  • 11:25 AM
    • The restaurant sector continues to face pressure in generating traffic and with labor costs rising, but commodity prices are working in its favor as of late.
    • The slide in prices in Q2 was 64% on eggs, 20% for dairy, 15% for beef, 12% for cheese, and 11% for chicken, according to analysis from Evercore.
    • "Commodities continue to benefit margins with the breakfast (restaurant) day-part benefiting the most," noted Evercore analyst Matt McGinley earlier this week.
    • While each company hedges commodity costs differently, the general trend of lower costs is favorable for a host of chains - including Denny's (NASDAQ:DENN), Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), Dunkin' Donuts (NASDAQ:DNKN), Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ), Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE), Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA), IHOP (NYSE:DIN), Wingstop (NASDAQ:WING), Bojangles (NASDAQ:BOJA), Kripsy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE:KKD), and Steak 'n Shake (NYSE:BH).
    • Related ETF: BITE.
    | 11:25 AM | 1 Comment
  • 10:19 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield continues to make its way back to its pre-Brexit level, up another five basis points to 1.59%. Helping the move today were stronger-than-expected reads on June retail sales and inflation.
    • The 10-year was in the 1.70% area prior to the vote, and dropped to about 1.35% in the days after. TLT -0.7%, TBT +1.4%
    • Short-term rate futures markets are again pricing in a sizable chance of a rate hike this year, roughly 40% at the moment. At one point in early late June, the chance of a rate hike had been pushed all the way back to 2018.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | 10:19 AM | 1 Comment
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