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  • Today - Tuesday, February 9, 2016

  • 7:07 PM
    | 7:07 PM | 40 Comments
  • 6:43 PM
    • The U.S. Supreme Court blocks Pres. Obama's planned new federal regulation that would cut emissions from power plants, halting at least for now the administration's sweeping effort to address combat climate change.
    • The justices heeded calls from utilities, coal miners and more than two dozen states to halt the EPA rule while court challenges go forward.
    • The delay will last at least until a D.C. appeals court rules on the plan, probably later this year after it hears arguments in June; meanwhile, the EPA will not be able to enforce a Sept. 6 deadline for states to either submit their emission reduction plans or request a two-year extension.
    • ETFs: XLE, XLU, VDE, ERX, OIH, UTG, IDU, VPU, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, GUT, BUI, FENY, PXJ, FIF, RYE, FUTY, RYU, UPW, FXN, FXU, DDG, PUI, SDP
    | 6:43 PM | 23 Comments
  • 3:30 PM
    | 3:30 PM | 48 Comments
  • 1:20 PM
    • The EIA lowered its forecast on oil prices in a new forecast.
    • The government agency expects WTI prices to average $37.59/bbl this year vs. $38.54/bbl prior forecast. The EIA sees Brent crude averaging $37.52/bbl in 2016 vs. $40.15 prior view.
    • U.S. retail gas prices are seen averaging $1.98/gallon this year and $2.21/gallon in 2017.
    • Oil futures are lower on the day.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM.
    | 1:20 PM | 10 Comments
  • 9:58 AM
    • Crude oil could drop below $20/bbl, but the oil slump does not seem likely to derail the global economy, Goldman Sachs predicts, in a bearish view that coincides with the latest report from the IEA.
    • With capacity to store oil exhausted in some places, prices may need to drop low enough to halt crude output that can no longer be stockpiled, says Jeff Currie, Goldman’s head of commodities research.
    • The storage sites most likely to run out of space are "landlocked,” such as Cushing, Okla., where inventories reached 64.2M barrels in the week to Jan. 15, the highest in data from the Energy Department that extend back to 2004.
    • The IEA says the global oil surplus will be bigger than previously estimated, increasing the risk of further price losses, as Iran and Iraq boost production while demand growth slows.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DWTI, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM
    | 9:58 AM | 46 Comments
  • 9:08 AM
    | 9:08 AM
  • 4:46 AM
    • The surplus of supply over demand at the start of the year is "even greater" than initially expected, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly report.
    • "With the market already awash in oil, it is very hard to see how oil prices can rise significantly in the short term."
    • Supply may exceed consumption by an average of 1.75M bpd in the first half of 2016, compared with an estimate of 1.5M last month, and the excess could swell if OPEC members bolster production.
    • Crude futures +2.2% to $30.34/bbl.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DWTI, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM
    | 4:46 AM | 51 Comments
  • 4:27 AM
    • The economic woes sparking turmoil for global equities are a boon for gold, as traders jump further into safe haven assets.
    • Spot bullion on Monday climbed as much as 2.3% to $1,200.97, its biggest intraday gain in two months and highest level since June 22.
    • However, not everyone is a believer. Goldman Sachs predicts losses over the coming year as the Federal Reserve raises U.S. interest rates no fewer than three times.
    • ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GTU, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, GEUR, GYEN, UBG, QGLDX
    | 4:27 AM | 20 Comments
  • 4:12 AM
    • Argentina bonds outperformed on Monday after two of six holdout investors agreed to accept a government offer to pay a total of $6.5B to them (a 25% haircut).
    • Daniel Pollack, the special master presiding over the negotiations, said Dart Management and Montreaux Equity Partners "stood solidly behind the deal," praising President Macri for addressing the "long-festering problem."
    • Previously: Argentina debt negotiations pick up pace (Feb. 08 2016)
    • ETFs: ARGT
    | 4:12 AM
  • 3:58 AM
    • German industrial production unexpectedly fell for a second month in December, in a sign that Europe's largest economy ended 2015 on weaker footing.
    • Output, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 1.2% from November, when it declined by a revised 0.1%.
    • The pullback comes at a time when record-low unemployment and low fuel costs bolster consumer spending, but a slowdown in major export markets counteract these positive trends to rein in production.
    • ETFs: EWG, GF, DAX, DXGE, HEWG, DBGR, EWGS, FGM, QDEU
    | 3:58 AM | 9 Comments
  • 2:51 AM
    | 2:51 AM | 9 Comments
  • Monday, February 8, 2016

  • 7:31 PM
    • Chinese markets are closed for the week with the Lunar New Year, but Japan is taking its Tuesday cues from Monday's markets in Europe and the U.S.
    • The Nikkei is down 680 points (about 4%) in early trading. The Nikkei 225 had reversed a four-day slide on Monday but has resumed its downtrend in the face of global trading weakness in energy and financials.
    • The dollar is down 0.3% against the yen.
    • Markets closed for Tuesday: China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore.
    • ETFs: DXJ, EWJ, DFJ, DBJP, NKY, JOF, JPNL, EZJ, DXJS, JEQ, EWV, HEWJ, SCJ, JSC, JPP, JHDG, QJPN, DXJH, DXJT, DXJF, FJP, JPMV, DXJR, DXJC, JDG, JPN, FXJP, JPXN, JPNH, HGJP, HEGJ, HFXJ
    | 7:31 PM | 11 Comments
  • 5:45 PM
    • The MLP sector needs to "absorb more pain" before it can represent a "compelling investment," Hedgeye's Kevin Kaiser said in a Barron's weekend profile of the controversial analyst, adding that the "pain" can come in but one form: a reduction in distributions that investors cherish.
    • The longtime MLP bear disagrees with the analysts and MLP investors who think the sector is deeply undervalued now that the benchmark Alerian MLP index is down 45%, countering that “we’re in the early innings of the MLP down-cycle. We had a 15-year up-cycle, and now we’re a year and a half into the downturn.”
    • Kaiser first gained Wall Street attention as the only bear among more than 20 analysts that covered Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI); while most of the damage has been done, Kaiser thinks KMI could fall further, to below $10, as he sees KMI still overleveraged with $41B of net debt, more than 5x annual cash flow.
    • On Linn Energy (LINE, LNCO) and Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK), "we said those stocks could be going to zero, and I think we’re going to be right," Kaiser adds.
    • ETFs: AMLP, AMJ, KYN, MLPL, YMLP, TYG, SRV, KYE, CEM, MLPI, NML, FEN, NTG, MLPA, KMF, EMLP, FMO, FEI, JMF, MLPN, SRF, CBA, MLPG, MLPX, GMZ, EMO, MLPS, MLPY, TTP, CTR, AMZA, GER, ZMLP, CEN, AMU, YMLI, SMM, MIE, DSE, FPL, ENFR, ATMP, JMLP, MLPC, MLPW
    | 5:45 PM | 60 Comments
  • 3:22 PM
    | 3:22 PM | 44 Comments
  • 2:37 PM
    • Many tech stocks are seeing 6%+ losses as investors flee to safety yet again. The Nasdaq is down 3.4%, and the S&P 2.7%.
    • As was the case on Friday following Tableau and LinkedIn's disappointing guidance, a slew of enterprise tech stocks are seeing big losses, with cloud software and security tech names well-represented on the casualty list.
    • Also: Solar stocks are having another brutal day (TAN -6.7%) as energy stocks get routed amid fears Chesapeake Energy is close to bankruptcy. WTI crude oil is once more near $30/barrel.
    • Enterprise software decliners: Adobe (ADBE -9.6%), Paylocity (PCTY -19.1%), Salesforce (CRM -9.9%), Workday (WDAY -12%), Guidewire (GWRE -12.5%), ServiceNow (NOW -11.5%), Zendesk (ZEN -13.8%), Paycom (PAYC -13.4%), Marin Software (MRIN -10.3%), Castlight (CSLT -8.4%), Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD -12.1%), Atlassian (TEAM -13.2%), inContact (SAAS -9.6%), and Bazaarvoice (BV -14.5%).
    • Enterprise security decliners: Palo Alto Networks (PANW -12.2%), FireEye (FEYE -9.8%), CyberArk (CYBR -11.5%), Proofpoint (PFPT -12.7%), Qualys (QLYS -8.9%), Imperva (IMPV -9.7%), Rapid7 (RPD -9.4%), and Barracuda (CUDA -8.4%).
    • Solar decliners: SunEdison (SUNE -11.3%), SunPower (SPWR -8.8%), JinkoSolar (JKS -7.6%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7.9%), Yingli (YGE -7.1%), TerraForm Power (TERP -10.7%), and TerraForm Global (GLBL -9.2%).
    • Other major decliners: Micron (MU -9.1%), Western Digital (WDC -10.5%), Arista (ANET -10.9%), Universal Display (OLED -10.6%), Rackspace (RAX -11.3%), Fitbit (FIT -8.7%), Nimble Storage (NMBL -11.3%), Sierra Wireless (SWIR -9.9%), Rocket Fuel (FUEL -9.8%), Knowles (KN -9%), Mitel (MITL -8.9%), and Alarm.com (ALRM -8.9%).
    • Previously covered: Yelp, Cognizant, Tableau, Globant, Ambarella, European tech stocks
    | 2:37 PM | 26 Comments
  • 2:26 PM
    • Investors are taking refuge in some weathered stocks in the consumer goods sector.
    • Procter & Gamble (PG +0.9%), Hershey (HSY +2.2%), Altria (MO +0.3%), Hormel (HRL +1.9%), Clorox (CLX +1.8%), and Post Holdings (POST +0.4%) are all making gains despite the 375-point slide in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
    • The Consumer Staples Select ETF (NYSEARCA:XLP) is down 1%, compared to the much steeper losses in the tech and financials sectors.
    | 2:26 PM | 12 Comments
  • 2:24 PM
    • It is the European banks and contagion concerns that are freaking out the markets today - not just the Fed, China and crude oil - according to David Rosenberg, noting that some of the European banks are trading at 2008 crisis levels after the group has tumbled 18% YTD vs. 11% for the STOXX 600 index.
    • European financial firms are taking a beating amid fears of "a chronic profitability crisis that makes it impossible for banks to build up barely-adequate capital bases," WSJ reports.
    • Deutsche Bank (DB -9.8%) is down another ~10%, bringing its YTD loss to nearly 40% while its valuation has fallen to ~30% of book value, and its credit default swaps spiked to their highest levels since 2012.
    • News of major withdrawals out of Credit Suisse (CS -4.2%) caused its shares to sink 11% last week, hitting a 24-year low, and Santander (SAN -6.2%), BBVA (BBVA -5.4%), and UniCredit (OTCPK:UNCFF -5.5%) are down to lows seen during the last eurozone financial crisis.
    • "Oil and the flatter yield curve alone do not explain the 12% plunge we have seen in S&P Financials so far this year," Rosenberg says, adding that BofA (BAC -6.1%), Citigroup (C -6.2%) and Wells Fargo (WFC -3.5%) all briefly touched 52-week lows last week - "an ominous signpost."
    • ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, PSP, IYF, EUFN, BTO, IPF, IAI, IYG, SEF, FNCL, FXO, PFI, IXG, PEX, RYF, FINU, KCE, RWW, KBWC
    • Earlier: Markets extend two-day rout; gold gets 3% boost
    | 2:24 PM | 25 Comments
  • 1:28 PM
    | 1:28 PM | 8 Comments
  • 12:55 PM
    • Iran plans to sell 300K bbl/day of crude oil to European customers now that Western sanctions have been lifted, Iran’s oil minister said over the weekend, the first time the country's top oil official has said how much of its new exports would be headed for Europe.
    • The comments came amid signs that European oil tanker companies were finding ways to ship Iranian oil despite remaining U.S. sanctions on Iran.
    • Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY) on Friday became the first Western company to load Iranian oil, the first in a wave of European purchases of Iranian oil, although the others have yet to be loaded.
    • Iranian officials also said Total (NYSE:TOT) will start importing 160K bbl/day of oil starting on Feb. 16; shipping officials say the company has chartered a 2M-barrel tanker to load crude next week.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DWTI, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM
    | 12:55 PM | 20 Comments
  • 12:03 PM
    • Volatile trading in the market for Russian rubles on February 27 of last year was due to hackers placing phantom orders through a regional bank in the nation, according to investigators.
    • The incident led to large price swings in a short span of time.
    • Malware is considered a serious threat across the Russian financial community.
    • Related ETFs: RSX, RUSL, RUSS, ERUS, RBL
    | 12:03 PM
  • 5:22 AM
    • Most global stock markets are posting big losses as traders fret about a recession following Friday's disappointing U.S. jobs report, indicating Wall Street may carry on with the heavy casualties seen at the end of last week.
    • Investors are also looking ahead to testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday, triggering continued uncertainty around the potential for the central bank to still raise interest rates this year.
    • Major Asian markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holidays.
    • Asia: Japan +1.1%. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India -1.7%
    • Europe: London -2%. Paris -2.6%. Frankfurt -2.8%.
    • U.S. futures: Dow -1.4%. S&P -1.5%. Nasdaq -2%.
    • ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, PSQ, SPXU, TQQQ, SPXL, RSP, SPXS, QID, SQQQ, QLD, DOG, DXD, RWL, UDOW, EPS, SDOW, DDM, VFINX, BXUB, QQEW, QQQE, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, QQXT, SPUU, LLSP, UDPIX, OTPIX, RYARX
    | 5:22 AM | 53 Comments
  • 4:54 AM
    • Oil futures are drifting into the red after a weekend meeting between Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to discuss coordination on crude costs ended with few signs there would be steps taken to boost prices.
    • "They seem like just general talk about cooperation, but nothing about cutting production," OPEC sources said. "The issue is not with Venezuela, it is with Iran."
    • Crude futures -3.5% $29.81/bbl.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DWTI, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM
    | 4:54 AM | 71 Comments
  • 3:57 AM
    • Russia is exploring an international bond issuance for the first time since the war in Ukraine sparked sanctions from the West, in a sign that the Kremlin is keen to find additional sources of revenue as the economy heads for a second year of recession.
    • The country, which last raised cash on international markets with a $7B bond in 2013, has already approached 25 Western investment banks and big Russian lenders Sberbank (OTCPK:SBRCY), VTB, and Gazprombank about a possible eurobond.
    • ETFs: RSX, RUSL, RUSS, ERUS, RSXJ, RBL
    | 3:57 AM | 4 Comments
  • 2:13 AM
    • Argentina has offered to pay about $6.5B in cash to U.S. holdouts that refused debt restructurings after its 2001 default, implying a haircut of about 25% on the amount bondholders say they are owed.
    • If accepted by all the holdouts, which are led by billionaire Paul Singer's Elliott Management, the deal will clear the way for Argentina's return to the international capital markets.
    • ETFs: ARGT
    • Previously: Argentina debt talks continue to make progress (Feb. 04 2016)
    • Previously: Argentina agrees to pay Italian holdouts (Feb. 03 2016)
    | 2:13 AM | 1 Comment
  • Sunday, February 7, 2016

  • 9:31 AM
    • The Peoples Bank of China discloses that its foreign-exchange reserves fell by almost $100B in January.
    • The decrease is less than the $120B drop forecast by economists.
    • Beijing's fierce defense of the yuan has reduced its foreign exchange reserves to a three-year low.
    • Related ETFs: FXI, YINN, GXC, PGJ, FXP, CYB, YANG, CNY, MCHI, CHN, TDF, XPP, YAO, YXI, CN, GCH, FCA, FXCH, JFC, CXSE.
    | 9:31 AM | 20 Comments
  • Friday, February 5, 2016

  • 4:44 PM
    | 4:44 PM | 2 Comments
  • 2:45 PM
    • Already at a three-year low, China's foreign-exchange reserves fell by $118B to $3.2T in January, according to economists' estimates. That would exceed the current record $108B whoosh in December. For all 2015, reserves fell more than $500B - the first annual decrease in nearly a generation.
    • The PBOC is tasked with taking the other side of a weakening yuan and massive capital outflows. “It’s an astounding reduction in their capital account position," says a fund manager. "The economy itself cannot turn this around."
    • The official number from the PBOC is due on Sunday.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • ETFs: FXI, YINN, GXC, PGJ, FXP, CYB, YANG, CNY, MCHI, CHN, TDF, XPP, YAO, YXI, CN, GCH, FCA, FXCH, JFC, CXSE
    | 2:45 PM | 20 Comments
  • 2:36 PM
    • The announcement last week sent the Nikkei skying and the yen plunging, but the yen has surged since, and is now stronger than before the BOJ move. As for the Nikkei, it's more than given back its gains.
    • "More symbolic than dramatic," says CLSA's Chris Wood of the BOJ action. He points to Europe - where there's been negative deposit rates for some time - and notes bank deposits at the ECB have barely fallen in the face of a negative rate of 0.3%. While European base money growth is up 41% Y/Y, broader M3 is ahead only a fraction of that. Households and businesses continue to sock money away because investment opportunities just aren't there.
    • Japan is seeing similar action between base money and broad money supply.
    • Citi Research today, downgraded Japan's Big 3 megabanks to sell - not necessarily because of negative rates which should have limited impact on earnings - but due to the perception that the BOJ will cut even more.
    • ETFs: DXJ, EWJ, FXY, YCS, DBJP, NKY, JYN, JPNL, EZJ, JEQ, EWV, HEWJ, YCL, JPP, DXJF, FJP, JPN, JPNH, JPXN, HGJP, HEGJ, FXJP, HFXJ
    | 2:36 PM | 9 Comments
  • 1:53 PM
    | 1:53 PM | 88 Comments
  • 12:29 PM
    • Even as crude oil is cheaper than during the financial crisis seven years ago, global oil prices have not fallen far enough yet to force oil producers to shut in more than 0.1% of the world’s daily supply, according to a new oilfield analysis from energy consultant Wood Mackenzie.
    • Just 100K bbl/day out of the 96.1M bbl/day of oil pumped worldwide have been closed so far since the price plunge, most of it in Canada's oil sands, conventional U.S. projects and aging fields in the U.K. North Sea, according to the analysis.
    • The data suggests if oil prices stay at current levels, the oil market will have to wait out a slow, natural decline in worldwide crude production before the large oversupply that has kept prices low for months can be corrected.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DWTI, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM
    | 12:29 PM | 42 Comments
  • 10:37 AM
    • The retail industry added 58K jobs in January after a flat month in December.
    • Employment levels were higher at furniture/home furnishing stores, electronics stores, general merchandise stores, and auto parts dealers.
    • The NRF is taken a favorable view of this data point. "The gains in retail jobs in January indicate consumers continued to shop even after the holiday season came to a close," stated NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
    • Previously: Payrolls miss, but UE rate dips to 4.9% (Feb. 05 2016)
    • Retail ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RETL, RTH, IYC, FXD, FDIS, SCC, UCC, RCD, PMR, BITE
    | 10:37 AM | 2 Comments
  • 10:10 AM
    • As of today, more than three-quarters of those in the S&P 500 will be able to resume buying back stock at their discretion, according to a Goldman report. Blackout periods surrounding earnings results had been prohibiting such action.
    • Plenty look willing and able to do so, according to Birinyi Associates, which says corporations have announced $85B in buyback authorizations through Feb. 3 - the strongest start to a year ever.
    • Everyone's got an opinion on whether buybacks are a good idea or not, but most can agree it's nice to see them after stocks swoon, rather than at the highs. At the financial crisis lows in 2009, companies spent just $149B on repurchases - about one-fifth of what they would lay out five years later after the indices had more than doubled.
    • ETFs: PKW, SYLD, SPYB
    | 10:10 AM | 6 Comments
  • 10:01 AM
    • Sharply lower this week as the Fed and markets continue to walk back expectations for tighter monetary policy, the dollar (UUP +0.6%) is moving higher following this morning's jobs numbers.
    • Jobs gained of 151K was a sizable miss, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.9% (even with labor force participation rising), and annualized wage growth topped 5%.
    • Fixed-income and currency markets, for now, are focused on the strength in the report, with the 10-year yield up three basis points and the dollar ahead vs. the other major currencies.
    • ETFs: UUP, UDN, USDU
    | 10:01 AM | 4 Comments
  • 8:53 AM
    • Canada lost 5.7K jobs in January against forecasts for a 5.5K gain. The unemployment rate rose to 7.2% vs. estimates for it to hold steady at 7.1%.
    • Alongside those gloomy numbers, December's 22.8K job gain was revised lower to just 1.3K.
    • The loonie (NYSEARCA:FXC) loses a little ground against the greenback (which has its own mixed jobs numbers to ponder this morning).
    • ETFs: EWC, CNDA, EWCS, QCAN, FCAN, HEWC
    | 8:53 AM | 4 Comments
  • 8:46 AM
    | 8:46 AM | 27 Comments
  • 8:41 AM
    • Along with 151K jobs gained in January vs. estimates for 190K, December's 292K job gain was revised down to 262K, and November's 252K gain was revised higher to 280K. We'll call the revisions a wash.
    • The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% vs. 5% expected, and the labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.7%.
    • The broader U-6 unemployment rate held steady at 9.9%. It was 11.3% a year ago.
    • The average workweek rose by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours. Average hourly earnings gained a big $0.12 to $25.39 (more than 5% annualized). On a Y/Y basis, wages were higher by 2.5%.
    • Initially maybe keying on the dip in unemployment and fast wage growth, the 10-year Treasury yield popped to 1.87%, but has since fallen to 1.84%. TLT +0.3%, TBT -0.6% premarket
    • Previously: Payrolls miss, but UE rate dips to 4.9% (Feb. 5)
    | 8:41 AM | 5 Comments
  • 7:13 AM
    | 7:13 AM | 13 Comments
  • Thursday, February 4, 2016

  • 9:24 PM
    • The Reserve Bank of Australia issued a cautiously optimistic report on the economy in Australia in a new monetary policy statement. The RBA sees growth of 2.5% to 3.5% this year and headline inflation of between 2% and 3%.
    • The central bank warned that uncertainty with key trading partner China is still a significant risk.
    • Analysts think that if the RBA is it to be moved off its 2% benchmark rate level, it will be due to offshore headwinds.
    • Related ETFs: EWA, IAF, AUSE, FAUS, QAUS, DBAU, HAUD
    | 9:24 PM
  • 3:29 PM
    • In the president's final budget to be released next week, he's set to propose more than $300B worth of investments in various trendy climate-friendly transportation ideas, reports Politico. The heady number is to be paid for with a $10 per barrel "fee" on every barrel of oil.
    • It's likely DOA in a Republican-controlled Congress, but it's certain to be a conversation-starter, particularly in an election year. Adding up to $0.25 per gallon to the cost of gasoline? What say you Mr. or Ms. Presidential candidate?
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, XLE, UCO, UWTI, VDE, ERX, OIH, SCO, BNO, DWTI, DBO, ERY, DIG, DTO, UGA, DUG, BGR, USL, IYE, DNO, FENY, PXJ, FIF, UHN, DBE, OLO, RYE, SZO, RJN, FXN, DDG, OLEM, JJE, ONG, UBN
    | 3:29 PM | 210 Comments
  • 12:41 PM
    • The dollar (UUP -0.6%) is retreating again today, continuing a move which began at the start of the week and picked up steam yesterday morning when New York Fed President Bill Dudley called out the greenback's strength as a cause for concern.
    • Not coincidentally, commodity stocks are bouncing off of sharply discounted levels, with names like Freeport McMoRan, Vale, and Cemex up double digit percentages over the last day-plus.
    • Turning to countries, Brazil (EWZ +3.7%) is on a two-day tear of about 6%, and Canada (EWC +2%) of just under 3%. In its first chance to respond to Dudley's remarks, Australia (EWA +2.1%gained 2.1% overnight.
    • ETFs: DBB, BOM, RJZ, BOS, JJM, BDD, UBM, BDG, HEVY
    | 12:41 PM | 6 Comments
  • 10:31 AM
    | 10:31 AM | 29 Comments
  • 9:32 AM
    | 9:32 AM
  • 8:06 AM
    • Results from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey show banks tightened standards on commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loans in Q4. Lenders also expect standards to tighten more over the course of this year.
    • Deutsche's Jim Reid says there's never been two consecutive quarters of tightening standards without signaling an eventual move into recession and a notable default cycle.
    • Households loans look to be a different story, with the survey finding a moderate easing of standards for residential mortgages, as well as on auto loans.
    • ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, FINU, RWW, RYF, FINZ, XLFS
    | 8:06 AM | 13 Comments
  • 7:32 AM
    | 7:32 AM | 3 Comments
  • 7:23 AM
    • The Bank of England is happy to continue letting the Fed experiment with rate hikes. As expected, it holds its benchmark overnight rate at 0.5%.
    • In somewhat of a surprise, the vote was unanimous this time - in recent past meetings, one member had held out for higher rates.
    • The dovish move sends the pound lower by about 100 pips. It's now flat on the session at $1.4572. The FTSE adds to gains, now higher by 1.2%.
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, DXPS, FKU, QGBR, DBUK, HEWU, UK
    | 7:23 AM
  • 4:09 AM
    • The risk of acting too late on ultra low inflation is greater than that of acting too early as a wait-and-see stance could lead to a lasting loss of confidence, ECB President Mario Draghi said at a Bundesbank event in Frankfurt.
    • "And if that were to happen, we would need a much more accommodative monetary policy to reverse it," he added. "Seen from that perspective, the risks of acting too late outweigh the risks of acting too early."
    • Euro +0.4% to $1.1159.
    • ETFs: FXE, EUO, ERO, DRR, EUFX, ULE, URR
    | 4:09 AM | 19 Comments
  • 2:48 AM
    • Argentina's New York-law sovereign bonds outperformed on Wednesday thanks to growing belief that a settlement with the country's holdout creditors could be in the cards.
    • "Some progress was made today. Discussions will continue tomorrow," said Daniel Pollack, the court appointed mediator.
    • Thursday's talks between Argentine Finance Secretary Luis Caputo and various holdouts will mark the fourth straight day of meetings between the two sides in the dispute.
    • ETFs: ARGT
    | 2:48 AM | 1 Comment
  • Wednesday, February 3, 2016

  • 5:33 PM
    | 5:33 PM | 58 Comments
  • 3:01 PM
    • Today's gains are being led by Arlington Asset (AI +7.3%) (not a REIT, but in the business) after it posted its first quarterly increase in book value in six quarters last night.
    • American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.7%) reported earlier this week, and Nomura's Brock Vandervliet notes three positives from yesterday's earnings call (transcript): 1) More buybacks are coming; 2) Green shoots are apparent in the MBS market; 3) Book value should remain stable from here (it rose a bit in the year's final month, though dipped for the quarter).
    • He does slightly adjust downward his earnings estimates - by a penny in Q1 to $0.54 per share, and by two cents for the full year. He expects the $0.60 dividend is safe through H1, but there is some risk there.
    • Annaly (NLY +0.7%), Two Harbors (TWO +2.9%), CYS (CYS +2.6%), Hatteras (HTS +1.9%), Capstead (CMO +2.2%), Dynex (DX +2.2%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    • Previously: Arlington Asset posts Q4 book value gain (Feb. 2)
    • Previously: American Capital Agency higher post-earnings (Feb. 2)
    | 3:01 PM | 20 Comments
  • 2:36 PM
    • Renewed chatter of talks between Russia and Saudi Arabia on production cuts seems as good of an excuse as any for oil's 7.3% gain today to $32.08 per barrel. USO +8.4%
    • The move comes despite the EIA reporting a big 7.8M barrel build in crude stocks.
    • Oil's moonshot has brought the XLE with it, and, in turn, the major averages. Down 1% earlier, the S&P 500 is higher by 0.1%, with the XLE up a full 2.2%.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM
    | 2:36 PM | 110 Comments
  • 12:20 PM
    • The $513M iShares International Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IGOV) has an expense ratio of 0.35%, but a 12-month yield of just 0.1%. It managed to lose 3.5% over the past year even though developed-market bonds were higher nearly across the board. It holds mostly European sovereign debt, but 22% of assets are also in Japanese paper.
    • And this isn't short-term debt - about 30% of holdings mature in more than 10 years, and another 18% in 7-10 years. That's a lot of duration risk for no income, writes Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz. "The potential upside is uninspiring, but the possible downside is breathtaking."
    | 12:20 PM
  • 12:04 PM
    • Possibly helping sentiment for the thoroughly roughed-up names is Banco Bradesco's (BBD +7.4%) cancellation of a capital raise.
    • SEC Form 6-K
    • Also headed higher is Itau Unibacno (ITUB +5.8%) after yesterday's post-earnings plunge. The lender beat trimmed down estimates, but also said it expected loan-loss provisions to rise 38% this year. NPLs in Q4 were 3.5%, up 20 basis points from Q3 and 40 bps from a year ago.
    • The Bovespa is up 2.15% in today's session. EWZ +4.35%
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRZU, EWZS, BRAQ, BZQ, BRAZ, BRAF, UBR, DBBR, FBZ
    | 12:04 PM | 5 Comments
  • 11:44 AM
    • The IPO market is off and running after taking the month of January off.
    • Chinese biotech BeiGene (NASDAQ:BGNE) priced its offering at $24 (high end of range) and Editas Medicine (NASDAQ:EDIT) priced at $16 (low end).
    • Both stocks are up solidly in opening trading.
    • Last night, Petco Holdings officially pulled its IPO due to a private equity buyout.
    • Previously: Crickets in the IPO market (Jan. 29 2016)
    • Related ETFs: IPO, IPOS, FPX, FPXI.
    | 11:44 AM
  • 10:38 AM
    | 10:38 AM | 52 Comments
  • 10:25 AM
    • This just in: The financial sector is having a worse go it this year than energy, with the XLF lower by 13.6% YTD vs. the XLE's 9% decline.
    • Leading a big reversal from this morning higher open is the XLF's 2% decline. The S&P 500 is now off 1%, and the XLE "just" 0.85%.
    • Among the issues for the financials are two items: 1) Hopes for a sustained rate hike cycle have been dashed, with the 10-year yield tumbling all the way to 1.82% currently from about 2.30% when the Fed hiked in mid-December. Fed speakers are all-of-a-sudden sounding very dovish (Dudley is the latest), and short-term rate futures are now pricing in just a 50% chance of even one Fed rate increase this year; 2) For lenders specifically, there's worry over their exposure to the crashing energy sector. No doubt better capitalized today than 10 years ago, losses are still losses even if they don't threaten the viability of the bank.
    • JPMorgan (JPM -2.6%), Wells Fargo (WFC -3.6%), Morgan Stanley (MS -3.5%), KeyCorp (KEY -3.1%), PNC Financial (PNC -2%), Comerica (CMA -2.7%), Schwab (SCHW -3.8%), MetLife (MET -2.5%)
    • ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, FINU, QABA, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, PSCF, FINZ, KRS, XLFS
    | 10:25 AM | 16 Comments
  • 9:17 AM
    • The unsteady markets to start the year have finally gotten to FRBNY President Bill Dudley, who's sounding awfully dovish in an interview he gave this morning. He specifically mentioned weakening global growth and the strong dollar as concerns.
    • The greenback (UUP, UDN) immediately spiked lower as his remarks hit, and the dollar index is now off 0.6% on the session.
    • Just for the record - while the long-term trend remains up and to the right - the dollar index has weakened thus far in 2016 and is at roughly the same level it was at one year ago.
    | 9:17 AM | 5 Comments
  • 8:39 AM
    • In a sour mood to start the year, the events of January has Bill Gross (NYSE:JNS) taking a victory lap of sorts in his February market outlook.
    • "[Central banks] all seem to believe that there is an interest rate SO LOW that resultant financial market wealth will ultimately spill over into the real economy. I have long argued against that logic and won't reiterate the negative aspects of low yields and financial repression ... What I will commonsensically ask is 'How successful have they been so far?'"
    • "What I do know is that our finance-based global economy is transitioning due to the impotence of monetary policy which has always, and is now increasingly focused on the elixir of low/negative interest rates."
    • ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, PTY, RCS, DBL, BTZ, HTR, PCM, SCHZ, JHI, BHK, TAI, JMM, BNDS, ICB, VBF, FBND, PAI, SAGG, GBF, IUSB, VBND, UBND
    | 8:39 AM | 7 Comments
  • 8:23 AM
    • January's private-sector job gain of 205K moderated from December's big 267K advance (revised from an originally reported 257K), but it beat expectations of 190K.
    • Job growth in the three months ended in January averaged 224K vs. 185K in the previous three months, and 199K in the three months prior to that. What's a central banker to do?
    • The 10-year Treasury yield remains higher by three basis points to 1.88%.
    • TLT -0.45%, TBT +0.9% premarket
    • Full ADP report
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | 8:23 AM | 5 Comments
  • 8:02 AM
    • BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink pens an open letter to corporate CEOs here and in Europe urging them to focus on long-term value creation.
    • Echoing many of the points made by a certain presidential candidate, Fink notes S&P 500 dividends last year amounted to the highest proportion of earnings since 2009, and buybacks through the end of Q3 were 27% above year-ago levels. While supporting the return of excess cash to shareholders (they are the owners of the company, after all), Fink asks companies to adopt "balanced capital plans."
    • "We are asking that every CEO lay out for shareholders each year a strategic framework for long-term value creation. Additionally, because boards have a critical role to play in strategic planning, we believe CEOs should explicitly affirm that their boards have reviewed those plans."
    • As for quarterly earnings "hysteria," Fink isn't a fan. While still supporting the reporting of quarterly results, Fink asks companies to do away with forward guidance, and instead focus on demonstrating progress made toward fulfilling strategic plans.
    • Previously: Dimon and Buffett convene secret meetings on promoting long-termism (Feb. 2)
    • ETFs: SPY, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, SPXU, SPXL, RSP, SPXS, RWL, EPS, VFINX, BXUB, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, SPUU, LLSP, RYARX
    | 8:02 AM | 16 Comments
  • 7:21 AM
    | 7:21 AM | 22 Comments
  • 7:02 AM
    | 7:02 AM | 3 Comments
  • 4:08 AM
    • Japanese shares led losses across Asia today, amid ongoing volatility in the oil market, a stronger yen, and weak earnings from Nomura that hit brokerages.
    • The downturn also reflects fading expectations that the Bank of Japan will take supportive steps after its decision to introduce negative interest rates late last week.
    • Minutes released by the BOJ overnight showed an intense debate by board members over Friday's sub-zero measures.
    • Nikkei -3.2%. Hang Seng -2.3%. Shanghai -0.4%.
    • ETFs: DXJ, EWJ, DFJ, DBJP, NKY, JOF, EZJ, JEQ, JPNL, DXJS, EWV, SCJ, HEWJ, JSC, JPXN, JPP, QJPN, FJP, DXJT, JPMV, DXJR, DXJC, JHDG, DXJH, DXJF, JDG, JPNH, HGJP, HEGJ, JPN, FXJP, HFXJ
    | 4:08 AM | 9 Comments
  • 2:46 AM
    • Looking to return to the international capital markets, Argentina has agreed to pay $1.35B to a group of Italian investors whose bonds the country defaulted on in 2001, marking the first time the Latin American nation has reached an accord with holdout creditors.
    • The deal sets a tough precedent for parallel negotiations taking place in New York between Argentina and another group of holdouts led by billionaire Paul Singer's Elliott Management, who are seeking to be paid around $3.50 on the dollar, or a total of around $9B.
    • ETFs: ARGT
    | 2:46 AM | 2 Comments
  • Tuesday, February 2, 2016

  • 4:50 PM
    • Crude inventories: +3.8M barrels vs. consensus of as low as +1.2M, or +4M according to Bloomberg.
    • Cushing +0.1M barrels. Distillate +0.4M barrels. Gasoline +6.6M barrels
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM
    • Crude futures -6.1% to $29.68.
    | 4:50 PM | 75 Comments
  • 3:48 PM
    • The Fed's adding a new twist to its severely adverse scenario in this year's stress test - asking lenders how they would handle a prolonged period of rates below zero. Ninety-day bill rates slipped below 0% a number of times over the past few years, but never stayed there for very long.
    • Along with that scenario would be unemployment doubling to 10% - the same level it hit after the financial crisis.
    • Negative rates, of course, are breaking out all over Europe, and the Bank of Japan last week introduced negative deposit rates as part of its latest attempt to spur the economy into faster growth.
    • The Fed and Fed watchers caution negative rates are just a stress test scenario, and not necessarily any sort of forecast about where things are headed.
    • ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, FINU, RWW, RYF, FINZ, XLFS
    | 3:48 PM | 6 Comments
  • 2:42 PM
    • On a day the Nasdaq is down 2.1%, many chip stocks are seeing outsized losses (SOXX -3.1%) after IDT (IDTI -28.3%), a mixed-signal chipmaker selling into the server, networking/telecom infrastructure, and wireless charging markets (among others), offered soft FQ4 (calendar Q1) guidance to go with an FQ3 sales beat.
    • Major decliners include diversified European chipmakers NXP (NXPI -4.7%) and STMicroelectronics (STM -7%), microcontroller maker Cypress Semi (CY -6.9%), RF chipmaker Qorvo (QRVO -6.4%), motion sensor developer InvenSense (INVN -6%), chip packaging/testing firm Amkor (AMKR -6.1%), and analog/mixed-signal chipmakers MagnaChip (MX -9.8%), Inphi (IPHI -9.1%), Silicon Labs (SLAB -5%), Microsemi (MSCC -4.4%), Semtech (SMTC -5.4%), and Power Integrations (POWI -5.5%). Previously covered: Pixelworks, ON Semi.
    • IDT reported Chinese telecom infrastructure demand is "normalizing to slightly less than the peak levels seen in late calendar 2014," that data center customer growth rates have slowed slightly, and that consumer demand has been affected by increased "customer smartphone shipment volatility." Both Apple and Samsung's sales have been under pressure.
    • BofA/Merrill has downgraded IDT to Neutral, while Wedbush's Betsy Van Hees has gone contrarian and upgraded to Outperform. Van Hees argues IDT is still positioned to see strong FY17 growth, aided by the ramp of LRDIMM DRAM chipsets for Intel's Broadwell server CPU launch and the ramp of wireless charging IC programs at tier-1 OEMs.
    • Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | 2:42 PM | 4 Comments
  • 2:28 PM
    | 2:28 PM | 10 Comments
  • 12:52 PM
    • Alongside energy's underperformance today is the financial sector (XLF -2.4%). The long-awaited hope of a sustained rise in interest rates appears dashed once again - at least so far this year.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by seven basis points to 1.88% - a nine-month low - and short-term rate markets are now pricing is less than one 25 basis point rate hike for the remainder of the year.
    • TBTFs: Bank of America (BAC -4.4%), Citigroup (C -4%), Goldman Sahcs (GS -4.4%)
    • Regionals: U.S. Bancorp (USB -2.5%), Regions (RF -3.1%), SunTrust (STI -4%)
    • Life insurers: MetLife (MET -3%), Prudential (PRU -3.2%), Lincoln Financial (LNC -3.7%)
    • Online brokerage: Schwab (SCHW -4.2%), E*Trade (ETFC -3.8%), Ameritrade (AMTD -3.6%)
    • ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, FINU, QABA, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, FINZ, KRS, XLFS
    | 12:52 PM | 56 Comments
  • 10:21 AM
    | 10:21 AM
  • 9:58 AM
    • A big bounce in the price of crude oil at the end of January - which took the price of Texas Tea to nearly $35 per barrel from about $27 - is officially over. With today's 5% decline to back under $30, crude is lower by almost 12% in the first one day-plus in February.
    • Shocking no one, the XLE's 3.2% slump is leading the S&P 500's early 1.4% drop.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM
    | 9:58 AM | 37 Comments
  • 9:50 AM
    • An early slump in equities and a resumption of the downtrend in oil has money pouring into Treasurys today, with the 10-year yield lower by a full seven basis points to 1.88% - a level not seen since April.
    • Thirty-day Fed Funds futures are now pricing in less than a 100% chance of even one rate hike this year.
    • TLT +1.2%, TBT -2.4%
    | 9:50 AM | 3 Comments
  • 9:05 AM
    | 9:05 AM
  • 9:00 AM
    • January monthly performance was: -5.46%
    • AUM of $1.07B
    • 52-week performance vs. the S&P 500 is: -9%
    • $0.15 in dividends were paid in January
    • Top 10 Holdings as of 12/31/2015: Targa Resources Corp (TRGP): 1.4%, Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM): 1.23%, Covanta Holding Corp (CVA): 1.04%, Theravance Inc (THRX): 0.94%, Pattern Energy Group Inc Class A (PEGI): 0.88%, Regal Entertainment Group (RGC): 0.86%, ALLETE Inc (ALE): 0.74%, WisdomTree MidCap Dividend ETF (DON): 0.73%, Black Hills Corp (BKH): 0.67%, Laclede Group Inc (LG): 0.65%
    | 9:00 AM
  • 3:04 AM
    | 3:04 AM | 24 Comments
  • Monday, February 1, 2016

  • 3:54 PM
    • Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:EMLC) announces monthly distribution of $0.086.
    • 30-Day Sec yield of 6.33% (as of 1/29/2016).
    • Payable Feb. 5; for shareholders of record Feb. 3; ex-div Feb. 1.
    | 3:54 PM | 1 Comment
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