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  • Today - Monday, December 5, 2016

  • 5:18 AM
    • Taking cues from the U.S. election and post-Brexit trading, a "Renzi resignation rally" is underway across the globe after denting equities earlier in the session.
    • With virtually all the ballots counted, 59.6% of Italians voted to block the Prime Minister's constitutional reform plans in a closely-watched referendum.
    • The euro has come off 20-month lows, trading down 0.2% at $1.0639, while the yield on 10-year Italian government bonds rose 11 basis points to 2.02%.
    • Asia: Nikkei -0.8%; Shanghai -0.8%; Hang Seng -0.3%;
    • Europe: Rome +0.8%. London +0.8%. Paris +1.4%. Frankfurt +1.7%.
    • U.S. Futures: Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.6%.
    • Related: What about Italy's financial sector? (Dec. 05 2016)
    • Related: Italy's referendum overshadows EU finance talks (Dec. 05 2016)
    • Related: Political instability following Renzi's defeat? (Dec. 05 2016)
    | 5:18 AM | 7 Comments
  • 4:08 AM
    | 4:08 AM
  • Sunday, December 4, 2016

  • 6:34 PM
    • "I have lost. In Italian politics no one ever loses. I lost, and I say that loudly. My government ends here."
    • So says Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi after the constitutional referendum he backed suffered a resounding defeat today.
    • The loss and Renzi's subsequent resignation were mostly expected, but nevertheless stock index futures and the euro are selling off.
    • S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures are lower by 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQby 0.6%.
    • German futures (NYSEARCA:EWG) are faring worse, down 1.1%, and FTSE 100 futures (NYSEARCA:EWU) are off 0.55%.
    • The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) is now lower by 1.3% vs. the greenback at $1.0526.
    • Gold's (NYSEARCA:GLD) catching a bid, up 0.7% to $1,187 per ounce.
    • Previously: Italy's Renzi set to speak; exit polls show sizable loss (Dec. 4)
    | 6:34 PM | 70 Comments
  • 5:33 PM
    • Handing a victory to Native Americans and environmental types, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says it will deny the necessary permits for the Dakota Pipeline project to proceed.
    • The Army Corps says it will not allow the pipeline to be built under Lake Oahe, and will study alternative routes.
    • The 1,170-mile pipeline is to be built by a group of companies led by Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE:ETP). Related tickers: SXL, PSX, MPC, ENB, EEP
    | 5:33 PM | 252 Comments
  • 5:20 PM
    • Stock index futures aren't trading yet, but currencies are, and the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) has quickly tumbled by nearly 100 pips  as exit polls show a constitutional referendum backed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi losing.
    • Renzi has vowed to resign if he loses. He's reportedly set to speak in about 40 minutes.
    • Unlike the Brexit vote and the U.S. election, an establishment loss in Italy was fairly widely anticipated, and Italian banks have been trending lower for several weeks.
    | 5:20 PM | 157 Comments
  • 4:40 PM
    • The Trump transition team said last week that the search for Secretary of State had narrowed to four finalists, but apparently the president-elect isn't yet sold, as the field has been reopened.
    • Among the new candidates is Exxon Mobile (NYSE:XOM) Chairman and CEO Rex Tillerson.
    • Sixty-four years old, Tillerson joined Exxon in 1975 and is set to retire next year.
    • Heads are already exploding in diplomatic circles over some of the president-elect's actions (such as receiving a call from the Taiwan president), and the appointment of Tillerson - who has no government or traditional foreign policy background - would surely be popcorn-worthy.
    • Exxon, of course, operates globally, so Tillerson is no stranger to interacting with foreign leaders at the highest levels. He's also had plenty of dealings with Vladimir Putin, and has spoken out against sanctions on Russia.
    | 4:40 PM | 53 Comments
  • 4:00 AM
    • Italians are heading to the polls for a referendum on constitutional reform that could call the shots for global markets in the week ahead.
    • If the measures are rejected, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi would likely resign, further shaking Italy's vulnerable banks, the euro and possibly causing the next Brexit-like tremor for the markets.
    • The political instability would also represent a new setback for the EU, since Renzi's opponents are dominated by anti-establishment forces.
    • The polls opened at 7 a.m. local time and will close at 11 p.m. Exit polls will be released as soon as voting booths close, with a definitive result expected by about 1 a.m. on Monday.
    • ETFs: FXE, EUO, EWI, ERO, DRR, ULE, EUFX, URR, HEWI, DBIT
    • Related bank tickers: OTCPK:UNCFF, OTCPK:IITSF, OTCPK:IITOF, OTC:MDIBF, OTCPK:ISNPY, OTCPK:BPESY, OTC:UNCFY, OTCPK:MDIBY, OTCPK:BPESF
    | 4:00 AM | 21 Comments
  • Friday, December 2, 2016

  • 9:31 PM
     
    • No doubt causing plenty of hair-pulling in Foggy Bottom and in traditional newsrooms across the country, Donald Trump today became the first U.S. president or president-elect to speak with a president of Taiwan since apparently 1979.
    • As part of recognizing the government of Beijing, the U.S. cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan in the late 70s, and has adhered to the so-called "one China" principle since. Trump's conversation with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen more or less walks that back.
    • During the call, the two "noted the close economic, political, and security ties that exist between Taiwan and the U.S.," says the transition team. Trump also congratulated Tsai on becoming president of Taiwan earlier this year.
    • Besides spitting in the eye of the U.S. diplomatic core and the press old guard, Trump's call seems likely to infuriate Beijing (Trump has also spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping since his election), which considers Taiwan a breakaway province.
    • This action, of course, comes in addition to candidate Trump's vow to take a very tough line on China's trade practices, including a threat to slap import tariffs on Chinese goods and formally declare the country a currency manipulator.
    | 9:31 PM | 139 Comments
  • 8:42 AM
    • The first thing to check on hearing the news of a plunge in the unemployment rate to 4.6% from 4.9% would be the labor force participation rate, and indeed that did slip to 62.7% from 62.8%.
    • The number of persons "unemployed" of 7.4M compares to 7.79M a month earlier and 7.9M a year ago (when the UE rate was 5.0%).
    • The broader U-6 unemployment rate fell to 9.3% from 9.5%. One year ago, it was 9.9%.
    • Turning to the Establishment Data, nonfarm payrolls grew an inline 178K, but October's 161K gain was revised down to 142K. September, however, was revised higher by 17K jobs to 208K.
    • Average hourly earnings slipped $0.03 to $25.89; on a Y/Y basis, they're up 2.5%.
    • The average workweek was flat at 34.4 hours.
    • Treasury yields have turned lower since the print, the 10-year now down 4.2 basis points to 2.40%. TLT +0.6%, TBT -1.2%
    • Stock index futures have trimmed losses, with the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPYdown 0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQoff 0.2%.
    • Previously: Job gains inline; UE rate plunges to 4.6% (Dec. 2)
    | 8:42 AM | 6 Comments
  • 8:30 AM
     
    • November Nonfarm Payrolls: +178K vs. consensus +175K, +142K previous (revised from +161K).
    • Unemployment rate: 4.6% vs. 4.9% consensus, 4.9% previous.
    | 8:30 AM | 240 Comments
  • 7:15 AM
    | 7:15 AM
  • 5:01 AM
    • Italy will hold a constitutional referendum on Sunday that has become a de facto vote on whether the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi should keep his job.
    • What's it about? The reforms would remove power from the Senate to enable laws to be passed quickly and efficiently.
    • The latest polls showing the overhauls are likely to be rejected has investors worried about a "financial meltdown" as Italy's shaky banking sector would have a tough time raising much-needed capital.
    • ETFs: EWI, HEWI, DBIT
    • Related bank tickers: OTCPK:UNCFF, OTCPK:IITSF, OTCPK:IITOF, OTC:MDIBF, OTCPK:ISNPY, OTCPK:BPESY, OTC:UNCFY, OTCPK:MDIBY, OTCPK:BPESF
    | 5:01 AM | 35 Comments
  • 2:15 AM
    • Almost a year after its last product VP jumped ship, Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) has finally found a replacement to take on the challenging job of rekindling the service's stalled user growth.
    • Keith Coleman, a longtime Google product manager, has been working at a small, little known company called Yes for the past few years.
    • Twitter took an interesting route to hire Coleman: it acquired his seven-person startup.
    | 2:15 AM | 20 Comments
  • Thursday, December 1, 2016

  • 4:06 PM
    • Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) announces that current COO Kevin Johnson will take over the CEO position on April 3, 2017.
    • Howard Schultz will be appointed executive chairman on April 3 and will shift his focus to innovation, design and development of Starbucks Reserve Roasteries around the world.
    • SBUX -4.22% after hours to $56.03.
    • Source: Press Release
    | 4:06 PM | 67 Comments
  • 12:22 PM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up another seven basis points to 2.46%, and bank investors continue to wrap their arms around the idea that real regulatory loosening is on the way. The XLF is higher by 1.7% vs. the S&P 500 being flat. KBE +2.15%, KRE +2%.
    • Bank of America (BAC +3%), Citigroup (C +1.7%), JPMorgan (JPM +2.2%), MetLife (MET +2.2%), Voya Financial (VOYA +3.3%), Northern Trust (NTRS +3.5%).
    • Oil is now ahead 4.6% to $51.72, helping the XLE to another 2.1% advance.
    • Tech (QQQ -1.4%) continues to struggle. Its decline today puts it lower by 1.1% since the election vs. the S&P's 2.8% advance, a 10% gain for the XLE, and a 14.5% move for the XLF.
    | 12:22 PM | 15 Comments
  • 10:21 AM
    • The price of oil pushed through $50 per barrel today, and is currently posting a 2.9% advance on the session at $50.91.
    • The S&P 500 is flat and Nasdaq is down 0.45%, but the XLE has tacked on another 1.8% to yesterday's big rise.
    • Mid-cap movers: Enerplus (ERF +8.2%), Southwestern Energy (SWN +7.9%), Range Resources (RRC +5.3%), Weatherford (WFT +7.1%), Ensco (ESV +8.2%), Crescent Point (CPG +6.3%).
    • Among the large players: Exxon (XOM +1.1%), Chevron (CVX +2%), Shell (RDS.A +2.2%), (RDS.B +2.3%), BP (BP +2.4%), ConocoPhillips (COP +2%), Marathon (MRO +3.1%), Halliburton (HAL +2.3%)
    | 10:21 AM | 55 Comments
  • 9:47 AM
    • The global bond rout picks up steam this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield up another 5.3 basis points to 2.441%, the 10-year Bund up 4.8 bps to 0.324%, and 10-year yields in Italy, Spain, and the U.K. higher by similar amounts.
    • TLT -1.1%, TBT +2.2%
    • Rolling around the minds of fixed-income investors is incoming Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's consideration of locking in still-historically-low interest rates through the issuance of 50- or 100-year government bonds. At the pace rates are climbing, he better hurry.
    • ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, PTY, PDI, PCI, RCS, ACG, PCN, PKO, EVV, GIM, BNDX, DBL, BTZ, ERC, HTR, FAM, PPT, MMT, GDF, FTF, SCHZ, BWX, PCM, KMM
    | 9:47 AM | 38 Comments
  • 8:30 AM
     
    • Initial Jobless Claims +17K at 268K vs. 253K consensus, 251K prior.
    • Continuing Claims +38K to 2.081M vs. 2.043M prior.
    | 8:30 AM | 14 Comments
  • 7:31 AM
     
    | 7:31 AM
  • 7:25 AM
    | 7:25 AM | 4 Comments
  • 5:40 AM
    • The oil club is dizzy with its own success after a harmonious meeting in Vienna, where it surprised the world by agreeing to its first production cut in eight years.
    • Crude prices up 12%? Check. Saudi Arabia and Iran in agreement? Check. OPEC and Russia working together? Check.
    • The big question now is whether all these cuts will be implemented. Meanwhile, crude is up over $50 a barrel, lifting energy shares in its slipstream.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX
    | 5:40 AM | 5 Comments
  • Wednesday, November 30, 2016

  • 4:25 PM
     
    • Stocks slumped from early gains to a mixed close, despite positive headlines on an oil production deal and better than expected U.S. economic data.
    • The energy sector surged 5% as U.S. crude oil closed a volatile pit session up 9.3% at a one-month high $49.44/bbl following OPEC's decision to cut output by 1.2M bbl/day, along with a separate agreement for non-OPEC producers to trim production by 600K bbl/day; additionally, natural gas futures closed higher for the seventh straight session.
    • Financials (+1.3%) and materials (+1.1%) also posted solid gains, while consumer staples (-1.7%), tech (-1.2%) and health care (-1%) kept the market under pressure throughout the day.
    • A sharp uptick in Treasury yields weighed on rate-sensitive sectors, as utilities (-3.2%), telecom services (-2.1%) and real estate (-1.2%) fell sharply.
    • The benchmark 10-year yield added 8 bps to 2.37%, while the two-year yield rose 2 bps to 1.11%; for the month, the 10-year yield spiked 54 bps and the two-year yield jumped 26 bps.
    • Month-end flows led to increased investor participation, as more than 1.5B shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.
    | 4:25 PM
  • 12:11 PM
    • Those getting mortgages prior to last few weeks were "likely the last" to lock in at historically low rates, says the NAR's Larry Yun following this morning's disappointing Pending Home Sales report.
    • That report was for October, but in more current news, mortgage applications dove another 9.4% in the week ended Nov. 25 (seasonally adjusted). They've been on a downward track for a few weeks, with the speed mostly picking up amid the sharp rise in rates since the election.
    • Turning to rates, the 10-year Treasury yield is carving out a new 12-month-plus high, up 11 basis points to 2.40%.
    • The S&P 500 is flat, but the ITB is down 1.8%, and XHB 1.2%.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL -2.1%), Lennar (LEN -3.4%), Pulte (PHM -1.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI -3.8%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC -2.1%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC -1.5%)
    | 12:11 PM | 13 Comments
  • 11:45 AM
    • While the pick of ex-Goldmanite and Hollywood player Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary can hardly be called "draining the swamp," Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson says it should make Wall Street happy.
    • In his first public comments after being selected, Mnuchin promised to "kill" swaths of Dodd-Frank.
    • Also making Wall Street (and other bankers/insurers/brokers) happy today is another big move higher in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 10 basis points to 2.394%.
    • The S&P 500 is just marginally higher, but the KBE is ahead 1.9%, and the KRE 2%. XLF +1.35%
    • Bank of America (BAC +3.4%), Citigroup (C +1.9%), JPMorgan (JPM +1.5%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1.8%), Morgan Stanley (MS +2.1%), Goldman Sachs (GS +3.9%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +1%), PNC Financial (PNC +1.4%), KeyCorp (KEY +2.2%), Fifth Third (FITB +2.5%), Regions Financial (RF +2.9%), BB&T (BBT +2.4%), SunTrust (STI +2%)
    • MetLife (MET +2%), AIG (AIG +0.8%), Lincoln National (LNC +1.7%), Prudential (PRU +1.1%), Hartford (HIG +1.3%)
    • ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, RYF, FINU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, JHMF, FAZZ, FNCF
    | 11:45 AM | 54 Comments
  • 11:40 AM
    | 11:40 AM | 47 Comments
  • 10:00 AM
     
    | 10:00 AM
  • 8:52 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield was already higher this morning, possibly helped along by a 7% moonshot in oil on reports of a deal to cut production.
    • The yield jumped further - now up 7 basis points to 2.36% - following the November ADP report showing 216K jobs added vs. just 160K expected, and 147K in October.
    • Other news to consider is Trump's Secretary pick Steven Mnuchin and his promise of tax reform - including both personal and corporate tax cuts - as a first priority.
    • TLT -1.15%, TBT +2% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | 8:52 AM | 6 Comments
  • 8:30 AM
     
    • Oct. Personal Income and Outlays: Income +0.6% M/M vs. +0.4% consensus, +0.4% (revised) prior.
    • Consumer spending +0.3% M/M vs. +0.5% consensus, +0.7% prior (revised).
    • Core PCE Price Index +0.1% in-line with consensus, +0.1% prior.
    | 8:30 AM
  • 8:30 AM
    • Confirming that he's Trump's pick to be Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin (appearing with Trump's Commerce pick Wilbur Ross) tells CNBC his first priority will be tax reform. There will be a middle-class tax cut, he says. As for the corporate rate, Mnuchin and team feel 15% is the right level.
    • On bank regulation: "We have to kill many aspects of Dodd-Frank." KRE +1%, KBE +0.4% premarket
    • On the GSEs: Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) cannot be government-owned. FNMA +7.15%, FMCC +7.6% premarket
    | 8:30 AM | 250 Comments
  • 8:27 AM
    | 8:27 AM | 31 Comments
  • 8:15 AM
     
    | 8:15 AM | 4 Comments
  • 7:22 AM
    | 7:22 AM | 5 Comments
  • 5:44 AM
     
    • Inflation in the eurozone rose by 0.6% in November, according to official flash estimates, suggesting consumer price growth is at its highest since April 2014.
    • Still, inflation remains well below the ECB's target of just under 2%. That will likely prompt the central bank next week to extend its bond-buying program at its final policy meeting of the year in Frankfurt.
    | 5:44 AM | 2 Comments
  • 5:24 AM
    • Hope is growing for a deal to cut crude output as OPEC oil ministers voice optimism at their all-important meeting in Vienna.
    • Despite some conflicting statements, representatives of Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the OPEC Secretary-General are assuming the group will reach a deal by this afternoon, when members spell out what they have agreed to in terms of supply levels.
    • Oil related stocks are doing well in the session as the price of crude jumps around 4-5% to over $47 per barrel.
    • Update (6:55 ET): Oil futures +7.1% to $48.42/bbl.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX
    | 5:24 AM | 52 Comments
  • Tuesday, November 29, 2016

  • 4:20 PM
     
    • Stocks eked out slim gains as a round of better than expected U.S. economic reports was offset by a sharp drop in oil prices.
    • "We're at a point where people are afraid of pushing the market too far off the fundamentals, but I don't think there [is] any news that could push the market markedly lower" in the near term, says Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank.
    • U.S. crude oil settled 3.9% lower at $45.23/bbl, weighed by several reports of internal discord among OPEC members that could derail plans for an agreement limiting production.
    • The health care sector (+0.7%) displayed relative strength, bolstered by biotech names and Dow component UnitedHealth, with real estate (+0.7%), utilities (+0.3%), financials (+0.2%) and tech (+0.2%) also higher; the energy sector (-1.2%) was by far the biggest laggard.
    • Intraday trading volume was below average, but final-hour selling brought the NYSE floor total past 900M shares.
    • U.S. Treasury prices fell early but then climbed steadily to close with gains, as the benchmark 10-year yield slipped by a basis point to 2.30% and the 30-year yield slipped 3 bps to 2.95%.
    | 4:20 PM | 3 Comments
  • 10:03 AM
     
    • Nov. Consumer Confidence107.1 vs. 101.0 consensus; 100.8 in Oct. (revised).
    • Present situation Index 130.3 vs. 123.1
    • Expectations Index 91.7 vs. 86.0
    | 10:03 AM | 2 Comments
  • 9:12 AM
    • Speaking to reporters in Vienna, Iran oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh says his country "won't cut oil production."
    • Bloomberg reports the Saudis as ready to reject any deal if Iran and Iraq don't participate. The Kingdom, according to the report, will only accept production cut exemptions for Nigeria and Libya.
    • WTI crude is now lower by 3.6% to $45.38 per barrel.
    • USO -3.25% premarket
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, OLO, UHN, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX
    | 9:12 AM | 105 Comments
  • 9:02 AM
     
    | 9:02 AM
  • 8:30 AM
     
    • GDP Q3+3.2% vs. +3.1% consensus and +2.9% prior.
    | 8:30 AM | 19 Comments
  • 7:44 AM
    • To review, Italy (NYSEARCA:EWI) is set for a weekend referendum on constitutional reforms, and - like the Brexit vote, and U.S. election - the establishment forces might be headed for a loss. That would likely force out Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, and put the country's shaky banks on even shakier ground.
    • Sources at the ECB tell Reuters the central bank stands ready to temporarily boost its purchases of Italian government bonds, if necessary.
    | 7:44 AM | 2 Comments
  • 7:11 AM
    | 7:11 AM
  • 4:50 AM
    • Oil prices are giving up some of Monday's gains ahead of the official start of the latest OPEC meeting in Vienna tomorrow.
    • Things are looking increasingly shaky following reports that OPEC's technical experts failed to bridge their differences and Russia confirmed it would not attend the gathering.
    • The group is aiming to agree on its first crude output deal since 2008, however, details of a potential accord remain unclear.
    • Crude futures -1.3% to $46.46/bbl.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX
    | 4:50 AM | 26 Comments
  • 4:18 AM
    • U.S. online sales gained momentum on Cyber Monday and looked set to surpass initial expectations by hitting a record $3.39B, which would mark the nation's largest online sales day in history.
    • That's according to Adobe Digital Insights which has projected a more than 10% jump in online revenues as consumers scramble to get their hands on the web's best bargains. Adobe will release final figures later today.
    • ETFs: IYK, UGE, SZK, IBUY
    | 4:18 AM | 3 Comments
  • 1:49 AM
    • With protests growing in South Korea, President Park Geun-hye has asked parliament to find a way for her to relinquish power and shorten her term, but the opposition said she was just trying to avoid impeachment.
    • "I am giving up everything now," Park said in a televised address to the nation, again offering an apology for the corruption scandal that has paralyzed her government for weeks.
    • ETFs: EWY, KF, KEF, KORU, DXKW, DBKO, FKO, QKOR, HEWY, KOR
    | 1:49 AM
  • Monday, November 28, 2016

  • 4:20 PM
     
    • Stocks fell, with the Dow and S&P 500 snapping four straight days of gains and the Russell 2000 ending a 15-session winning streak.
    • "After three weeks of gains and a 15-day winning streak on the Russell 2000, we have to slow down," says Wunderlich chief market strategist Art Hogan.
    • The financial (-1.4%), energy (-1.3%) and health care (-0.9%) sectors outpaced broader market losses while utilities (+2.0%) and telecom services (+0.8%) gained.
    • Crude oil prices gyrated, with WTI finally settling 2.2% higher at $47.08/bbl following reports that the Iraqi oil minister said Iraq will cooperate with other OPEC members to reach a production agreement.
    • Today's trading volume was below the recent ~1B-share average, as 847M shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.
    • U.S. Treasury prices ended higher, as the two-year yield slipped 2 bps to 1.10% while the benchmark 10-year yield fell 5 bps to 2.31%.
    | 4:20 PM | 1 Comment
  • 10:21 AM
    • The prohibited subsidy came in the form of a renewed cut in Washington state's main business tax for aerospace agreed in 2013, when Boeing (NYSE:BA) was considering where to base assembly for the long-haul jet. However, the WTO rejected a complaint by the EU against six further tax measures.
    • While the trade organization didn't give a value for the banned aid, the EU estimated it at $5.7B out of an $8.7B package.
    • The ruling, which can be appealed by either side, comes as the U.S. ponders potential sanctions against the EU over earlier WTO rulings against Airbus.
    • Previously: Boeing may get hit with WTO sanctions (Nov. 28 2016)
    | 10:21 AM | 2 Comments
  • 7:16 AM
    | 7:16 AM | 8 Comments
  • 5:30 AM
    • Oil prices are bouncing around the $46 level as traders bet on whether OPEC will slash output at its closely watched meeting on Wednesday.
    • While Libya has announced it won't take part in any OPEC cuts and Saudi Arabia hinted that the oil market would rebalance itself, some still feel the group will be able to rein in global oversupply.
    • Venezuela's oil minister will also meet his Algerian counterpart later today before the two meet with Russia to seek support for a production cut.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX
    | 5:30 AM | 9 Comments
  • 3:37 AM
    | 3:37 AM | 11 Comments
  • 2:19 AM
    • The World Trade Organization is set to rule this week that Boeing (NYSE:BA) received illegal tax breaks from Washington state to build its new 777X, the latest round in a long-running dispute between the U.S. and Europe over planemaker support.
    • According to WSJ, the EU said Boeing had lined up more than $8B in prohibited subsidies for the long-range jetliner program, but American officials have called that figure inflated.
    | 2:19 AM | 8 Comments
  • 2:07 AM
    • Under pressure from Elliott Management, Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF) is considering splitting itself in two, Seoul Economic Daily reports.
    • Separate holding and operating companies would allow heirs of the founding Lee family to strengthen their grip on the global smartphone leader, the crown jewel of the Samsung Group business empire.
    • Samsung's board of directors will meet tomorrow to respond to the activist hedge fund's proposals.
    | 2:07 AM | 5 Comments
  • Sunday, November 27, 2016

  • 9:11 AM
    • A deal on Wednesday that delivers a concrete supply reduction of at least 1M barrels a day, with non-members such as Russia on board could boost oil beyond its recent $40-$50 range.
    • News before the weekend stating Saudi Arabia wouldn't attend a gathering with non-OPEC producers on Monday prompted a significant pullback, but crude prices could bounce around over the next few days as the group tries to resolve internal differences.
    • Tomorrow's talks will be converted into another OPEC-only meeting, sources told Reuters.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX
    | 9:11 AM | 70 Comments
  • 8:40 AM
    | 8:40 AM | 2 Comments
  • Saturday, November 26, 2016

  • 1:29 PM
     
    • Taking pains to try and appear to be keeping the whole affair at arms length, the Clinton campaign nevertheless says it plans to be a participant in recounts in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
    • From a blog post from Clinton campaign lawyer Marc Elias: "Because we had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology, we had not planned to exercise this option ourselves, but now that a recount has been initiated in Wisconsin, we intend to participate in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides."
    • Green Party candidate Jill Stein says she's nearly raised all of her $7M goal needed to initiate recounts in those three battleground states (she's already done so in Wisconsin).
    • Trump's combined margin of victory in the three states was 107K votes, and while Elias says the campaign doesn't think that can be overcome, "we have an obligation" to those who cast ballots for HRC.
    | 1:29 PM | 229 Comments
  • 8:19 AM
     
    • The former strongman passed away late last night, according to his brother Raul, the current president of Cuba (he took over from the ailing Fidel in 2008).
    • They're partying in the streets of Miami, but it's unclear how his passing will affect the recent opening of relations between the U.S. and Cuba.
    • The U.S. president-elect keeps things simple for now, tweeting out minutes ago: "Fidel Castro is dead!"
    | 8:19 AM | 111 Comments
  • Friday, November 25, 2016

  • 11:01 AM
    • Crude oil prices are lower ahead of what some see as a make-or-break OPEC meeting.
    • Though OPEC already agreed in principle to cap output at 32.5M to 33M barrels a day, the details that emerge from the November 30 gathering and Russia's stance after the OPEC decisions are announced will be crucial.
    • The oil market is poised for volatility next week with managed short positions on many WTI and Brent contracts standing at record levels.
    • WTI crude oil futures -1.86% to $47.07/bbl at last check. Brent crude -2.08% to $47.98/bbl.
    • ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, XES, IYE, IEO, FENY, IEZ, PXE, FIF, PXJ, RYE, NDP, GUSH, DRIP, DDG, FXN, CRAK, SOP, UOP, NANR.
    | 11:01 AM | 10 Comments
  • 9:45 AM
     
    | 9:45 AM
  • 8:30 AM
     
    | 8:30 AM | 10 Comments
  • 7:24 AM
    | 7:24 AM | 1 Comment
  • 6:14 AM
    • Consumers and businesses increased their spending in Q3 as the U.K. economy registered a resilient performance following the Brexit vote.
    • Household spending rose 0.7% from the second quarter and business investment increased 0.9%, according to the Office for National Statistics.
    • Growth overall was unrevised at 0.5%, with trade providing the strongest contribution.
    • ETFs: EWU, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | 6:14 AM | 8 Comments
  • 1:52 AM
    • Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) has approached Actelion (OTCPK:ALIOY) about a potential takeover in a bid to boost its pharma business, Bloomberg reports.
    • Europe's largest biotech firm has two pulmonary arterial hyper tension drugs which J&J would love to get its hands on, but deliberations are still at an early stage.
    • Shares in Actelion are up around 13% so far this year, valuing the company at around $17B.
    | 1:52 AM | 5 Comments
  • Thursday, November 24, 2016

  • 7:58 AM
    • Black Friday isn't as big as it once was due to earlier holiday deal hysteria, but it's still a very significant day for retail.
    • The National Retail Federation expects 137.4M Americans to hit stores at some point over the weekend and around 74% of that population to go shopping tomorrow.
    • That's about on par with last year's figures as online sales become a bigger part of the holiday. Adobe even expects Black Friday web purchases to top $3B for the first time, up 11.5% from 2015.
    • ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, PBJ, RETL, PEJ, IYK, FXG, IYC, SCC, FXD, RHS, UCC, PMR, UGE, RCD, PSL, PSCC, SZK, FDIS, FSTA, PSCD, PEZ.
    • #BlackFriday
    | 7:58 AM | 8 Comments
  • 5:55 AM
    • Crude prices are little changed as uncertainty ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude production cut and thin liquidity due to Thanksgiving kept traders from making big bets on markets.
    • OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together with non-OPEC member Russia, but there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and by how much.
    • Crude futures flat at $47.96/bbl.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX
    | 5:55 AM | 6 Comments
  • 5:37 AM
    • The dollar is climbing past more of last year's peaks against the euro, with only the March 2015 high of $1.0457 standing in the way of a push towards parity that banks are again saying is on the cards.
    • With U.S. markets out for the Thanksgiving holiday, trade will be thinner, but the dollar is expected to extend its surge after another strong batch of U.S. economic data on Wednesday.
    • The greenback is now worth more than 7.5% against a basket of major trading partners than it was three months ago.
    • ETFs: UUP, UDN, USDU
    | 5:37 AM | 19 Comments
  • Wednesday, November 23, 2016

  • 4:25 PM
     
    • The Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 added to their string of all-time closing highs while the Nasdaq pulled back slightly in pre-Thanksgiving trading.
    • Heavy machinery names outperformed in the industrial sector (+0.8%) after Deere easily beat earnings estimates and issued upbeat sales guidance for the current quarter and full-year 2017; the results helped boost Caterpillar to the day's top performance on the Dow.
    • The financial sector (+0.6%) continued its recent winning streak as banking names outperformed again, but another rapid increase in market rates kept yield plays utilities (-0.9%) and real estate (-0.7%) under pressure.
    • Today's trading volume was below the recent average, as 808M shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.
    • Bond markets were hit by another wave of selling after October orders for durable goods rose by a stronger than expected 4.8%, the fastest pace in a year; yields jumped across the curve, with the two-year adding 4 bps at 1.13% while the benchmark 10-year yield also rose 4 bps to 2.36%.
    • U.S. crude oil settled 0.2% lower at $47.96/bbl.
    | 4:25 PM | 3 Comments
  • 2:04 PM
     
    • In no surprise given what we've heard since the November 1-2 FOMC meeting, the just-released minutes of that affair shows the Fed seeing further improvement in labor markets and inflation, with most agreeing that a rate hike is coming "relatively soon."
    • Fed Funds futures are pricing in a 100% chance of a move when the FOMC meets next month.
    | 2:04 PM | 9 Comments
  • 10:30 AM
    • We'll get today's weakish data out of the way first - jobless claims unexpectedly jumped last week, and new home sales disappointed in October (and Sept.'s print was revised lower).
    • On the other hand, there was an unexpected big lift in consumer sentiment since the election, durable goods for October, surprised to the upside, and the 10-year Treasury yield has popped to more than a one-year high of 2.39%.
    • The dollar index has surged to its highest level in about a decade, with particular strength against the yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) and euro (NYSEARCA:FXE). UUP +0.7%
    • Gold, on the other hand, continues its big retreat, down 2.15% to $1,185 per ounce - its lowest price since February. GLD -2.15%
    • ETFs: GLD, IAU, UUP, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, UDN, DGP, GTU, UGLD, GLL, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, USDU, GYEN, GEUR, UBG, QGLDX
    | 10:30 AM | 85 Comments
  • 10:15 AM
     
    • "The initial reaction of consumers to Trump's victory was to express greater optimism about their personal finances as well as improved prospects for the national economy," says Survey of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin.
    • The Index of Consumer Sentiment unexpectedly popped higher to 93.8 from its initial read this month of 91.6, and from 87.2 in October.
    • The Index of Consumer Expectations jumped all the way to 85.2 from 76.8 a month earlier.
    • More from Curtin: "The post-election boost in optimism was widespread, with gains recorded among all income and age subgroups and across all regions of the country."
    • Previously: Treasury rout is back on (Nov. 23)
    | 10:15 AM | 8 Comments
  • 10:00 AM
     
    | 10:00 AM
  • 9:49 AM
    • After a bit of consolidation over the past few sessions, Treasurys have resumed their bear run in a big way, with the 10-year Treasury yield up a full seven basis points to 2.38% - the highest level in more than a year.
    • Searching for excuses ... There's a sizable selloff in European government debt today as the ECB realizes its bond-purchase program has left the Continent without enough available government paper to function properly. There was also a fast durable goods read for the U.S. - but that's October data and we're practically in December.
    • Coming up in a few minutes are New Home Sales for October and this afternoon the FOMC minutes. Short-term rate futures have priced in a 100% chance of a rate hike in December.
    • TLT -1%, TBT +2%
    | 9:49 AM | 8 Comments
  • 9:45 AM
     
  • 8:30 AM
     
    | 8:30 AM | 6 Comments
  • 7:15 AM
    • Net income of $285.3M, or $0.90 per share vs. $351.2M, or $1.08 per share in the comparable quarter of 2015.
    • Worldwide net sales decreased 3% Y/Y to $6.52B from the same quarter a year ago. Segment Sales: Agriculture & Turf. -5%; Construction & Forestry -5%.
    • "The company in 2016 had one of its ten-best years in both sales and earnings, a noteworthy achievement in light of the difficult business climate," CEO Samuel Allen declared. "We are driving further efficiency gains and have confidence we can deliver structural cost reductions of at least $500M by the end of 2018."
    • Outlook for fiscal 2017: Equipment sales are projected to decrease about 1%. Net sales are also expected to decrease about 1%, while net income is anticipated to be about $1.4B.
    • DE +9.7% premarket.
    • FQ4 results
    | 7:15 AM | 17 Comments
  • 7:08 AM
    | 7:08 AM
  • 5:35 AM
    • U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond will be in the spotlight at 7:30 a.m. ET, presenting the government's first "Autumn Statement" on the state of the economy after the Brexit vote.
    • Analysts will be poring over the speech for clarity on the government's plans after the decision to leave the EU, keeping an eye on fiscal measures and growth and budget-deficit forecasts.
    • ETFs: EWU, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | 5:35 AM
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