ICF International Integrated Energy Outlook Projects 70 GW of Fossil-Fired Capacity Retirements over the Next Four Years
FAIRFAX, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ICF International (ICFI), a leading provider of consulting services and technology solutions to government and commercial clients, has released its Integrated Energy Outlook for the second quarter of 2012. The study highlights the near- and long-term future of gas prices; the impacts of proposed U.S. federal environmental regulations; and projections on pollution control installations, coal production, and renewable energy development.
Related to federal environmental regulations, this quarters Energy Outlook finds that system operators must work with generators to coordinate more than 70 GW of fossil-fired capacity retirements and outages associated with 400 GW of new pollution control installations over the next four years. While these regulations could also mean coal-fired generator retirements of more than 50 GW, ICF projects that coal generation in the U.S. will remain steady through 2020. The study also finds that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys recently proposed New Source Performance Standards for greenhouse gases from new generation sources, does not impact the going forward capacity build-out.
In the gas market, this past winters record warm weather reduced core gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors and caused gas prices to fall to $2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). These prices are not sustainable. As projected, producers have begun to cut back gas development and redirect drilling activity to oil and natural gas liquids. As a result, gas prices have started to firm. Core demand likely will return this coming winter, as supply tightens and demand returns, with gas prices hovering in the $5 to $6 per MMBtu range in the long run.
The Energy Outlook provides big picture insights about volatile energy markets, as well as market-specific capacity projections and price forecasts, says Steve Fine , vice president for ICF International. For example, the Outlook shows a significant shift toward renewables and natural gas, which will dramatically affect the wholesale power competitive landscape.
ICFs Integrated Energy Outlook addresses a number of significant issues, including:
- How low gas prices are spurring new demand in the industrial and power sectors
- What gas prices will look like over the next five years as new demand is created by coal plant retirements and liquefied natural gas export terminals that could place additional upward pressure on prices
- Why coal prices are expected to start rebounding in 2013
- How the current regulatory and low natural gas environment is expected to cause some permanent demand destruction for coal use in the electric generation sector
- How U.S. coal will remain competitive on the export market
Using a suite of proprietary analytical tools and by incorporating global expertise from all areas of the industry, ICF utilizes a fully integrated assessment of wholesale power, transmission, fuel, and emissions markets in order to offer the most complete picture of the energy industry. The report offers insight into the key areas of emissions, gas, coal, renewable energy, and power.
For more information regarding the second quarter release of ICFs Integrated Energy Outlook, please register for ICFs webinar, scheduled for June 26, 2012: http://www.icfi.com/energywebinar.
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About ICF International
ICF International partners with government and commercial clients to deliver professional services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, and infrastructure; health, social programs, and consumer/financial; and public safety and defense markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program lifecycle, from research and analysis through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 4,500 employees serve these clients from more than 50 offices worldwide. ICF's website is http://www.icfi.com.
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Source: ICF InternationalCopyright Business Wire 2012