Seeking Alpha

"Zuck repeatedly has said that it is 'coming,' which he never said in the history of Facebook,"...

"Zuck repeatedly has said that it is 'coming,' which he never said in the history of Facebook," says a source of Nick Larson's close to the company where talk of an IPO is ramping up. Facebook doesn't have to go public, but it recently surpassed an SEC limit of 500 shareholders, meaning it must disclose financials next Spring - as good of an excuse as any to take the plunge.
Comments (6)
  • Noreika
    , contributor
    Comments (473) | Send Message
     
    I'm getting some of my dumb money ready...
    18 Nov 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • bearfund
    , contributor
    Comments (1534) | Send Message
     
    Let's hope for a high-float offering. Can't wait to get short!
    18 Nov 2011, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • mpierce486
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    It's been a long awaited time. Many benefits for staying private, confidentiality and privacy are two, but since they have to start opening the doors...might as well generate some capital while they are at it. Of course, there are more consequences to going public. We shall see...
    19 Nov 2011, 04:50 AM Reply Like
  • Harold Fredrick
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Many pooh-pooh FB, but I guarantee their IPO will perform every bit as well as Google's did. Facebook's "moat" is its partnerships with nearly every relevant entity on the web. Yahoo! and MySpace never had that, and Google doesn't have that. When Facebook is needed to access the offerings of nearly all of the world's most popular websites, then it will have engineered the greatest takeover of the Internet to date. They will own a significant portion of the Information Age itself: http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Nov 2011, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • bearfund
    , contributor
    Comments (1534) | Send Message
     
    Let's say I believe you (I don't, but for sake of argument). Unfortunately the company is already valued as if it had not only taken over the Internet but most of the physical world as well. Your thesis seems to be that the company is positioned to grow by turning the screws on what you see as a monopoly position. Considering how hated Facebook already is (justifiably so, considering that its users are its product rather than the customers they're accustomed to being), it's hard to imagine that competition authorities will allow it to run roughshod like that. And they'd have to, in order to justify their incredible valuation. And when you say "When Facebook is needed to access the offerings of nearly all of the world's most popular websites...", you seem to imagine that the world's advertisers -- major corporations with a lengthy history of astute, successful business dealings -- will fall all over themselves to get locked into an ever more expensive advertising platform. How long do you really think that will last? What about all the people who refuse to use Facebook at all? What will you do when the company finally oversteps so far on privacy that it leads to a revolt? Do you really trust this egocentric management team to navigate that terrain? Google's inexperienced management team has floundered in exactly those areas and the company has gone basically nowhere since its IPO. The difference is that GOOG came out the gate valued much more reasonably than Facebook will. It's not an analogue I'd be happy about if I were an investor.

     

    I don't really see much value here, even in a best-case scenario. At $5 billion I'd take a chance with a small position, but at a likely $300+ billion, I yearn to be short. There are only a few companies with higher market caps than that, and all of them can be had for vastly lower multiples and have long histories of profitability with proven business models and, with a few exceptions, capable management teams. The upside potential at the IPO or post-IPO prices will be very low, the downside risks considerable. I'll throw this out there: anyone who buys at the offering price and holds forever will book at least a 99.9% loss on his investment.
    19 Nov 2011, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    There is probably no company I dislike as much as Facebook I must admit. And Wall Street will pump it up and that CEO will even get richer.
    19 Nov 2011, 02:49 PM Reply Like
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