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On the surface, today's selloff in gold has all the earmarks of a dollar-related move. After...

On the surface, today's selloff in gold has all the earmarks of a dollar-related move. After all, the Dollar Index has risen nearly 2% over the past two days. Couple that with the standard Friday jitters, its only natural for support levels to be breached today. However, Oppenheimer's chief market technician Carter Worth says today's action all part of a bigger technical move. "A multi-year bull market has transitioned to a bear market," Worth says, and "the backing and filling of late is the normal setup for the next leg down."
Comments (21)
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
    Comments (4013) | Send Message
     
    Maybe. It all depends on the macro picture. The paper trade has given some cover to the central banks to continue their experiments and they could keep the ball in the air for some time, but the fiats are getting a little long in the tooth and anyone holding physical would be well advised to to keep it.
    11 May 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • minecanary
    , contributor
    Comments (485) | Send Message
     
    The physical market is going nuts. The bankers are trying to drive the paper price through the floor so they can cover the remaining contracts at a lower dollar figure when their inventories are bled dry. The mainstream shills like this author are doing their best to spout the gov't view to protect the fiat system...but it's about to implode. Get your metals while they are on sale!
    11 May 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Playing the Ponzi
    , contributor
    Comments (144) | Send Message
     
    I agree with Carter. Gold broke its decade-old trend line support, rallied back to that line and was soundly reject this week.
    http://bit.ly/YNdJwu
    I am short GLD, but I will also be using the sell-off that may persist to accumulate more of the real stuff. I suspect the difference between the listed priced of (paper) gold will continue to gradually separate from the price of the physical stuff. Until Central Banks self-destruct, there is no reason to stop buying the real stuff. I don't buy gold because I think it will go up X per anum, I buy it because I expect to wake up one morning and have my paper buy markedly less than it did the night before. Gold is simply an insurance policy (and maybe not the best one) for that scenario. In that sense, I completely agree with those who commented before me. But in terms of the chart, I agree with Carter that this looks like a good spot to short GLD.
    11 May 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Russ Winter
    , contributor
    Comments (662) | Send Message
     
    More Clues About What Happend in the Gold Swoon

     

    http://bit.ly/14dWdju
    11 May 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2061) | Send Message
     
    The trend is down; no brainier.

     

    Technical support seems to be at $120 for GLD and for physical Gold at $1,200.

     

    Getting there!
    11 May 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    Goldcorp CEO mentioned recently that they are quite profitable above $1000-$1100, and that production costs will go down over time. He also stated that he would not be surprised to see the price drift lower. Perhaps these statements were made to allay shareholder jitters, but his candor is appreciated nonetheless given all the misinformation out there on production and breakeven costs. Short gold, given relative dollar strength.
    11 May 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • pollyserial
    , contributor
    Comments (1093) | Send Message
     
    What's your time-frame and target Whitehawk?
    11 May 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1763) | Send Message
     
    The paper markets are collapsing and completely diverging from the physical markets. No one trusts counter party risks when bullion banks are now routinely raiding allocated bullion storage accounts.
    11 May 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • machiavelli
    , contributor
    Comments (514) | Send Message
     
    Au revoir, goldbugs! Get it? ^_^
    11 May 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • albertmashaal
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    I am a silver & gold trader. I have being doing for 45 years &
    I done extremely well & made a quiet a big fortune.
    I believe with Carter ideas , this gold has lost its luster & the
    trend is definitly down for at least one or two years.
    the only way to make money in gold by shorting, you sell on
    any rally possible & you can't go wrong.
    thank you , albert mashaal
    11 May 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Be Here Now
    , contributor
    Comments (4385) | Send Message
     
    As an amateur gold and silver bullion owner since 1980 (market top! I bougnt high), and as a sometime TA dabbler, I have had occasion to look at GLD charts over the last several years. The trading in GLD over the last month has been interesting to watch. There was the downside gap on April 15 that hearkened back in my memory to the reverse event in the summer of 1982 when the great stock bull market started with a monster upside gap breakout on the DJIA. One of the supposed market experts on Wall Street Week called for the gap to be filled, as was conventional wisdom then. It didn't happen.

     

    I have been watching the trading in GLD since that downside gap. It looks like the gap was just barely filled on April 29. For several days before and after that date, traders attempted to drive GLD above the gap and failed. It now looks like the momentum is to the downside.

     

    My own personal prediction is that GLD is headed for a test of the April 15 low.
    11 May 2013, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1069) | Send Message
     
    I don/t believe in predictions but in trends yes; I believe in historical data from the 1980s when DJ/gold ratio was 1 and gold went up 23x from its basis of $35; gold only started going down only with a Fed rate of 20% or so and unemployment rate up to 11%; let the Fed raise the Fed rate a few points and see what happens? the DJ was stuck at under 1000 for 13 or 14 years before it surpassed it; gold and the DJ are far, far away yet from the same situation; comparing the 80s and now is like comparing apples and oranges; gold will have its day even if the economy collapses
    12 May 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11161) | Send Message
     
    I honestly don't know how much more paper gold mostly un-backed by the physical thing the market can handle. Demand for it is waning because there is tons of supply even as gold reserves themselves are being tapped. I guess banks don't really care about getting ruined by not being able to cover their ETF and ETNs with real gold. That may be because they have the blessing of the Fed or they figure if it goes to the moon they simply will declare a state of economic crisis and make the public bail them out again.

     

    The simple fact is... no one in the world could supply as much gold as their is paper written for it. That means banks and others are hoping to buy it back and close the position without delivery making them the big shorters and issuing the paper against their clients much like Goldman Sacs did with home mortgage bonds.
    11 May 2013, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • jsIRA
    , contributor
    Comments (2701) | Send Message
     
    If gold is going down further, the best is to buy DUST, which has gained over 400% in last 6 months and may go higher after pull backs.
    12 May 2013, 05:33 AM Reply Like
  • CraigPowell
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Gold getting ready for the next leg down?
    Gold is already down -7.92% in last 30 days in a good agreement with the UBS signal:http://bit.ly/17VeBzG
    12 May 2013, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10466) | Send Message
     
    Mine supply of gold, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, is basically unchanged over the past 12 years — from 2560 metric tonnes in 2001 to 2700 metric tonnes in 2012.

     

    From Barrick CEO Sokalsky,

     

    "This industry is like a supertanker. It takes a long time to stop or change directions. You cannot turn on a dime. Most projects that are built right now, or are in advanced construction, will not be affected. However, the outlook for growth in supply in a few years looks more and more under threat. Thus, the supply of gold is likely to be lower going forward. We are not going to see huge growth, even if the gold price goes up considerably.”
    12 May 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • minecanary
    , contributor
    Comments (485) | Send Message
     
    The thing you are all missing is that the Fed is about to start closing the tap on the free money. The market will show it's true strength then and head for the cellar. Japan bailing out the US and Europe by adding to it's 220% debt load will be revealed for the farce thatit is....and physical metals will become near and dear in spite of what you chart junkies think. Buy now and plant a garden while you are at it.
    12 May 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Matthew Cowie
    , contributor
    Comments (512) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you long term, but in the short-run there may still be a lot of inflationists who will be flushed in a deflationary down draft.
    12 May 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Physical accumulators never think short term!!

     

    To us this is just noise that's all. Oh and maybe a buying opportunity as well. I have heard since gold has been $600 dollars that it is too expensive, when it broke 1k I was called a nut by family.

     

    I just kept on smiling !!
    12 May 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1069) | Send Message
     
    Come on; the Fed closing out the tap...that will be the day and they don't have any balls because there is no way out ....remember the green shoots?? what happened to them? now rumors of closing the tap
    12 May 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2061) | Send Message
     
    Remember the wonder boy; he and the professor are in full and firm control.
    12 May 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
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