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Tesla Motors (TSLA) gains 6.2% in premarket trading to reach $93.10 as its dizzying...

Tesla Motors (TSLA) gains 6.2% in premarket trading to reach $93.10 as its dizzying post-earnings victory lap continues. Morgan Stanley is out with what is largely a cautionary note before crunching the numbers for the "extreme" bull case. The firm says if Tesla achieves a 20% operating margin on 200K units per year, then a $300-plus price target could be justified.
Comments (76)
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    TSLA shorts are caught in the Bernanke maelstrom. 20% operating margin is not going to happen, 200k units are not going to happen, but it doesn't really matter. The money will be gone before rationality returns.

     

    The odd thing is that TSLA's latest earnings show beyond any doubt that US demand for the Model S seems to have peaked already, right below 5k units/Q.
    14 May 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Zachary Hamel
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    I disagree with your demand outlook, primarily due to the fact that Tesla Motors has not spent any money on advertising towards the everyday consumer. Most people still do not know about Tesla as a company, and as that awareness grows, demand will keep strong. I've read your articles, and you seem to consistently bring up a demand problem that simply does not exist.

     

    On a side note, even if this magical disappearing demand issue does exist, it still doesn't matter, as demand only has to hold steady for a few years, until the 3rd generation vehicle comes out.

     

    -Long TSLA
    14 May 2013, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Zack, the everyday consumer won't be buying the $80000 cars... you don't see much advertising for Ferrari or Porsche, either.
    14 May 2013, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Juggler
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    The demand may have not peaked yet, but 200k is a 10-fold increase in cars sold, or 1000%. Where on earth can that growth come from?
    14 May 2013, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Juggler
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, that's not completely true. Ferrari is not remotely comparable to Tesla, first and foremost on a price stand-point: the cheapest Ferrari sells at ~2.5 the price of a Model S.
    And you do see some Porsche advertising around...
    14 May 2013, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • Zachary Hamel
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Tesla doesn't make Ferrari's or Porsche. Tesla makes attractive EV's that the market is still not used to. You're right, and $80,000 car isn't going to be marketable towards everyday consumers. But my statement reflects the fact that overall, even those who DO have the available funds to purchase the car, mostly haven't heard about this brand yet. You're calling this the peak demand "without a doubt' without any evidence to back your claim about how deep the American market is.
    14 May 2013, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Saying demand hasn't peaked needs some kind of proof. The numbers say demand has peaked, namely:
    1) Deliveries in the US already falling or stagnated (production in Q2 would be able to be significantly higher than Q1, if it increased all through Q1, so ended Q1 at a higher run rate than the average for the whole Q);
    2) No longer disclosing reservation data after it started quickly weakening in Q1;
    3) Delivery times now within 1 month, which means orders per month are now within close proximity of deliveries per month, so down to 1500 or so per month;
    4) Saying US demand is 15k/year - lower than what Q1's 4900 US deliveries imply;
    Etc, etc, etc. Everything points towards the same direction.
    14 May 2013, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Saying demand has stagnated or peaked, doesn't mean it will fall to zero - but those people "yet to know about it" will make up the future, slower or stagnated, demand.
    14 May 2013, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • Zachary Hamel
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    You're misunderstanding the data. Lowered delivery estimates for Q2 does not mean lower demand. Any production slowing factor can lead to less deliveries, such as workers leaving for vacation, intern training, ect.

     

    I am also not sure where you have gathered your data about a "1 month wait for delivery" time. From all that I've read, I've still found the wait to be upwards of 3 months. That's a full quarter of wait time. While I agree, the choice to halt disclosures of reservation numbers is interesting, but it is more likely a long term move than a short term item to hide from the unknowing investors.

     

    Everything you've stated seems to point nowhere.
    14 May 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Zack, it only points nowhere if you actively WANT to believe it points nowhere. Sure, the stock can go to the moon, but these facts are quite simple and obvious. The obvious explanation is "demand has peaked in the US". Everything else is daydreaming.

     

    Q2 actually has 1 more days than Q1, too.
    14 May 2013, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • Zachary Hamel
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    It only actively points to SOMEWHERE if you want it to as well Paulo. No one likes to be wrong, and many people have been about this stock. I'm not saying the stock price is related to the output or fundamentals at all anymore, because it's not, that's something we both can agree on.

     

    But these are not facts that you are bringing to light, this is you making observations based on the same data everyone has read, and trying to bring up issues that just don't exist.
    14 May 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    They don't exist? TSLA increased production substantially during Q1. It ended Q1 at a run rate of around 6750 autos/Q while producing 5k or so. Now in Q2 it's talking like it's going to deliver 5k autos (4.5k to US, 0.5k to Europe), and you think that doesn't say "peaked US demand".

     

    Plus it stops reporting reservations after they weaken (but not before saying that in Q1 they were running below Q4, and obviously Q2 was going slower still...), which also says "peaked demand"

     

    Plus it puts US demand at 15k/year, which is well below the 4.9k per Q delivered in Q1.

     

    Plus delivery times fall within one month from a huge backlog.

     

    I mean, how much more obvious can it get?
    14 May 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • Zachary Hamel
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Yes that is exactly what I'm saying Paulo. It doesn't say "peaked US demand". You are beginning to leave the basics out of your calculation. Regardless of their "max run rate" for Q1, they delivered (met demand of) 4,900 customers. They plan on increasing this to 5,000 overall next quarter. If you are actively trying to view the information as negative, then you can, but in basic supply and demand principles, it is constrained on the supply side, not the demand side. Tesla has stated that before it continues to ramp up production, it wants to make sure that its supply chain is running as effectively as possible.

     

    Are you intentionally not viewing these facts?
    14 May 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    5000 overall is including European customers. I am saying "US demand". They plan on delivering 4500 there. And that's including past orders, so if the backlog is turning smaller (as delivery times go under one month, it is) this means that the new orders coming in are probably below 4500/Q already.

     

    So no, it's not really constrained in the supply side. If that were true TSLA would be putting on another shift.
    14 May 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • Zachary Hamel
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I realize that the 5k number was overall supply, because that is the maximum the believe that they can SUPPLY overall. They want to insert themselves into the European market, which is why they are devoting 10% of products to that region.

     

    In addition, decreasing wait time is a POSITIVE for a company in this position, anyone who has been working in supply chain management knows that you eventually need to progress towards Drum Buffer Rope manufacturing style. Lowered wait time does NOT mean less orders.

     

    Lastly, you state "putting on another shift", as if adding to a manufacturing workforce is simple and instantaneous. In our short debate back and forth you seem to have shown a complete lack of understanding of supply chain management and how to accurately forecast demand.

     

    Stick to the numbers people give you for your economic analysis my friend, that is your expertise. Your assumptions are unwarranted.
    14 May 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Zack, even without another shift - production was going up all through Q1, so it ended Q1 at a higher run rate than the 5k or so cars built during Q1. So simply staying at that run rate through Q2 would mean TSLA would build 6750 cars or so.

     

    What that means, is that TSLA is not production constrained in the US any more - it COULD deliver more than 4500 cars. If it doesn't, then you have to think that demand has peaked. The same conclusion can be inferred from several other sources so it's probably correct. (I do believe TSLA will beat the conservative 4500 deliveries, but then it will STILL fall within the 4900 or so from Q1, which continues to indicate stagnation).
    14 May 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    I think the problem with TSLA is that if it actually starts to become a threat to the ICE gas prices will tank and no one will want to be bothered with an EV when gas is under 1.50/gallon.... The oil companies have the money to survive a prolonged price wars, TSLA is barely hanging on with gas above 3.50
    14 May 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Stymie67
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    You really think gas is going to come down to those levels? I doubt it.
    14 May 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Zachary Hamel
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    There are other factors in a new manufacturing system that act as constraints besides workforce that affect run rate or "production rate". You are once again failing to see the whole picture. FINAL DELIVERIES is also part of the supply system. If Tesla cannot deliver all that they produce within a quarter, which was shown in Q1, then they only are able to effectively produce the number of final cars they deliver, which is, once again set at a goal of 5k for Q2.

     

    It CAN'T deliver more than 5k overall because not all produced cars are delivered to customers! They go various places in a new business such as this. To become display models in new stores, test cars for journalists, lease cars etc.

     

    You are failing to see the larger picture in terms of the overall business model, perhaps because in the Q1 earnings report, they didn't feel like they had to spell it out any further.

     

    As a side note, when debating with someone, if you have to state "The same conclusion can be inferred from several other sources so it's probably correct." then you've lost the argument. You can find opinions and "data" backing any view anyone has ever dreamed of having on the internet. You're scrambling to justify your argument now, and honestly, I have more pressing things to do than educate someone likely twice my age on demand forecasting and supply chain management. There will be stagnation of production (like Tesla stated there would be) this upcoming quarter, but once again, for much different reason than you believe.

     

    Good day sir.
    14 May 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • JackB125
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    I think it is very premature to be calling out peak demand. Most people in the US still haven't heard of Tesla. But that is quickly changing. When the July Consumer Reports is published, Model S awareness should spike sharply.

     

    Also, I suspect many of the Porsche, Ferrari and other very high end sports car customers may begin giving the Model S a look. If an AWD performance version becomes available, I've seen estimates of a 3.2 sec 0-60 time. Tesla could end up capturing part of the very high end sports car market.

     

    And, we really haven't had enough time to see the results of the new financing product on the less expensive versions of the Model S.

     

    I'm very surprised that you would call out peak demand at this point.
    14 May 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Zack, I don't think you have understood this basic fact: for TSLA to produce 5k in Q1 while increasing production throughout the Q, that means it ended up Q1 producing at a rate much higher than 5k.

     

    For it then to produce just 5k in Q2, would mean Tesla would be backpedaling on the production, which can only be understood if Tesla doesn't have demand for more cars at that point.
    14 May 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Jack, the peak US demand is what one can infer from the data we have. It's quite hard to believe anything else unless, of course, you actively want to believe it.

     

    It requires quite a bit of imagination.
    14 May 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    I think that if the oil majors see EV's becoming an actual threat (more then 20-30% market) then yes in order to survive they will drop the price of oil enough to make the general public forget about EV's...

     

    they would be stupid not too.
    14 May 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Zachary Hamel
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Like I said, I'm not missing anything. You're measuring Q1 Production against Q2 final deliverables. They are two completely different things and you are using them interchangeably in your argument to attempt to make your point. If you can't see that, then I can't help you. You can keep replying to everyone's comments on every TSLA article you find, but it's not going to change your classic misunderstanding or blatant ignorance when regarding the data.
    14 May 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Q1 prod was around 5k, deliveries around 4.9k, I don't get your point. Q2 prod is said to be 5k, deliveries 4.5k ... but prod at the end of Q1 was running well ahead of 5k ...
    14 May 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • chfp
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    Either way it's a win-win for consumers, no?

     

    There's this other emerging market called China which you may have heard of. If not, I'll fill you in: China's demand for oil will soon exceed the US's (absolute, not per capita). Any slack in US demand will be more than made up for by China. China doesn't have as strong a middle class as the US and it will take many years for them to be able to afford Tesla-level EVs en masse.
    14 May 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • chfp
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    You haven't addressed the elephant in the room: What if you're wrong, as you've been the past few years about Tesla?
    14 May 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    I didn't even talk about TSLA until a couple of months ago, I don't know where you get those "past few years".
    14 May 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    he may be replying to the other guy paulo not sure?
    14 May 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • AlexiaEP
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    It doesn't matter if gas prices drop. It's STILL less expensive to run and maintain a Model S. AND, the Model S STILL maintains the better performance, the higher efficiencies, the quieter ride, the zero emissions, the ability to become better overtime with downloads, the FREE *fuel* for roadtrips via the Supercharger Stations etc...

     

    Regardless of gas prices, the Model S is STILL the superior car.
    14 May 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    the 'free fuel' won't be free forever and you know that... at the end of the day people worry about money and "zero emissions, quieter ride" pros you mention don't put money in the pockets of the buyer.

     

    we would probably have to do a 20 year study to come to an absolute conclusion but I really doubt consumers choose the model s over a 40mpg ICE with gas at a 1.50

     

    Another thing I hate tsla fans saying is all this talk about the free supercharging stations then in the next sentence they talk about the only time you'll fill it up is at your house in the garage... well now.... you pay for that electricity and your saying most of the time you'll charge it at home not on the "free" superchargers.
    14 May 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • raywhite
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    1. Production can't be higher because of production capacity not because of lack of demand.
    2. Reservation data is not available because they are moving buyers down the funnel to commitment vs. reserving and waiting.
    3. I have not seen anything that says delivery times are within a month. All the buyers I know are 3 to 6 months out for orders placed 3 to 6 months ago.
    4. Elon was giving an idea of how many cars would be produced for the US vs. Asia and Europe, not saying Tesla would only get 15k US orders. Are you counting Europe and Asia in your demand numbers? Do you think advertising might increase demand? Financing? What is the multiplier effect of Teslas being on the road? I have had more than 30 people tell me they want one after seeing mine.

     

    You are misrepresenting facts to support your opinion and stating your opinion as fact. What you say is possible but so are 30 other more positive scenarios.
    14 May 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Surf Dog
    , contributor
    Comments (825) | Send Message
     
    Reduction in delivery times is by design. This has been clearly stated.

     

    Your hoping demand will soften does not "show beyond any doubt that US demand for the Model S seems to have peaked already"

     

    It does not prove anything. Your baseless rationalizations don't either.

     

    I'm sorry if things are not turning out so well for you, but it is getting old seeing these tired arguments.
    14 May 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Jesus Surf, I base my opinion on the numbers - the numbers just show that demand has peaked. For you NOT to believe that, you need to believe a few of the following:

     

    1) That in spite of being able to produce around 6750 cars per Q in Q2, Tesla would choose to produce just 5k;

     

    2) That Elon Musk is lying when he says that he expects to deliver just 15k cars to the US market;

     

    3) That delivery times can somehow be reduced while taking in more orders than making deliveries - for that's the only way you get to think that demand is higher than what TSLA is delivering in the US.

     

    Etc, etc.
    14 May 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    shame on you Paulo ... for having an opinion and sharing it on the internet.... shame shame
    14 May 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • AlexiaEP
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    I know no such thing and neither do you. I'm willing to take Mr. Musk's word that the Superchargers will be free forever for Model S and X owners as he's stated multiple times.

     

    You can hate all you want. The fact remains, long distance travel is free for Model S owners if they choose to use the Superchargers and the rest of the time they can charge at home for a significant 'fuel' reduction charge. *That* IS money in the pockets of buyers.
    14 May 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • mrpanini
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, Musk said the reason Tesla stopped disclosing reservation data is that the wait times for the Model S are short enough now that customers can option their car right away. No need for a reservation data. Also, Musk said that as the wait times for a Model S fall, he expects orders to actually increase. People are more willing to order a car they can get in 1-3 months, rather than a car they have to wait a year. Both these statements from Musk are the opposite of what you are theorizing.
    14 May 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Wait times getting shorter means that deliveries are out pacing orders, with deliveries at 4500-4900, you do the math.

     

    Elon Musk also said that he expects 15k deliveries in the US over 2013. With 4900 deliveries in Q1 and 4500 in Q2, you do the math ...

     

    As I said, the evidence is overwhelming that demand has peaked in the US for the Model S.
    14 May 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Zachary Hamel
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    There is no point in fighting with Paulo gentlemen, he doesn't realize that increasing delivery efficiency to reduce wait time, and achieving that reduction, does not mean the same thing or signify falling demand.

     

    It's not his field expertise, so let him believe what he wants. Although I genuinely do question why he fails to understand this concept.
    15 May 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (5368) | Send Message
     
    Gas seems heading to $3 from $3.27.
    24 May 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • rube123
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/OyXLRq
    25 May 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • edinvestor1
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    That is not a completely fair comparison though. Ferrari and Porsche have long histories. Everyone knows who they are. If a new company doesn't advertise to get public familiarity, it can't hope to break into a market no matter how good the product is.
    23 Jun 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • rube123
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    I watched this stock since $45 for a pull back to enter,

     

    apparently Telsa doesn't come with rear view mirrors,

     

    I bought yesterday

     

    this stock has a lot of room to grow,

     

    with the HP ratings they have, and mileage range, company's like UPS have to be looking hard at this. add some Solarcity installed superchargers at the overnite parking lots.
    14 May 2013, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    UPS, Taxis, etc, can't be charging, not moving, or cycling the batteries into the ground for a huge expensive cost. So that angle is not going to happen, either.
    14 May 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • rube123
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Paulo....yeah, ok, ....

     

    http://bit.ly/11ByDk5
    14 May 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • the_value_vulture
    , contributor
    Comments (157) | Send Message
     
    ... AND if they sell 400k units a year why ... that's a price target of $550. That's a sure multi bagger from here folks!

     

    This is just one more example of a market that has gone completely insane. Throw fundamental analysis in the trash. All you need is a list of ticker symbols, charts, positive PR, and gut feelings.

     

    Whoever times this downturn right in hyped up stocks (TSLA, NFLX, AMZN) is going to make a ridiculous amount of money as all the speculators rush for the exits
    14 May 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • AlexiaEP
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    In the meantime, all the people who have been long are making a ridiculous amount of money. Works both ways.
    14 May 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Timothy Paul
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how this can continue running - but keep in mind announcements 4 and 5 from Elon to help fuel the fire of demand/speculation
    14 May 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    It CAN continue to run - simply by destroying the short interest. It's a $10 billion market cap. Nothing to keep it from being a $20 billion market cap. However, the business does not warrant a $10 or $20 billion market cap. It's a bubble, fed by Bernanke.
    14 May 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • toonies
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    While Toyota, GM and partially Ford are going way of "supporting" EVs but not are going to lead the market, 20% margin for Tesla is achievable. And production rate is achievable too, when X and 3 series will come it will be very soon insufficient production rate. Do not forget EU and Asia and others too.

     

    I am long from 28 and thinking to sell 20 or 30% of amount and take partial profit and wait with 70% to 2014/15.
    14 May 2013, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    20% margin is achievable HOW? This is operating margin the article is talking about, not gross margin. TSLA's gross margin objective is 20-25%, which will be hard to reach, never mind operating margin.

     

    If the US peaked within 2 Qs of serious selling, it's likely that Asia and Europe will do the same. The product has the looks of being a fad taken on by early adopters and little else at this point. Maybe future products change that (but I doubt this will be changed by a 200 mile theoretical range vehicle ...)
    14 May 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Zachary Hamel
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Q4 2012 was not a quarter of serious selling Paulo. Come on, now you're REALLY stretching. Tesla had to expedite in its supply chain to even reach the ouput of vehicles it did! Its an output issue, not a demand issue!
    14 May 2013, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Zack, if you say Q4 was not serious, you're just making MY point: it peaked even EARLIER (after just ONE Q of serious selling)...
    14 May 2013, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • noahgins
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Once again, you can know how to calculate margins but if you don't know the product, your thoughts are useless. The Model S is already a ~300 range vehicle. When Tesla hits a 500 mile range, say hello to the bad guys.
    14 May 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    When I am talking about 200 miles theoretical, I am not talking about the Model S - I am talking about the supposed Series 3 competitor.
    14 May 2013, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • AlphaCoils
    , contributor
    Comments (280) | Send Message
     
    @Paulo, maybe a bubble or maybe the beginning of a transformation in energy and the auto industry. My money's on the latter and I think a lot of people agree. That's what's fueling it.
    14 May 2013, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    That could be, but if such a revolution happens it's far from obvious that it would be TSLA leading it.

     

    And in the meantime it makes no sense to deny that Model S demand in the US seems to have peaked.
    14 May 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • mindell
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    Actually, it does seem obvious that TSLA would be leading it. Who else is even close?

     

    TSLA has first mover advantage for purely electric vehicles and is now breaking out. The larger market cap will enable more and more innovation.
    14 May 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (5368) | Send Message
     
    $300? So $30 billion market cap.
    14 May 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • 123man
    , contributor
    Comments (1032) | Send Message
     
    The last figures I read said that in the US (maybe it was world wide) there were 1.7 million cars sold in the Tesla category (although there are really none that compete, in the same category) - previous posts mention one company selling 20K of their car and another selling 30K of theirs - what is missed is that Tesla is at 0.011764705882353 % or 1.2 % of the existing 1.7 M market - when word get out that this superior car can be bought for an effective cost far below the competition (due to all sorts of savings, fuel being only one savings area) Tesla's potential market will exponentially grow far beyond the 1.7M similiar cars - how much of that market do they need to sell 30-40,000 cars per year? - the only negative :-) to driving the Tesla is the time it takes explaining the car to folks who think it is a Jag, Aston, or Maserati or some other exotic - first the guys, then they drag their wives over (show her the motor) - Tesla presence will grow, with it the body of buyers - this is not math or extrapolation of numbers - it is boots on the ground cold hard fact - shorts should buy in now, because at these over hyped numbers the fall should be huge :-) - it will clear out the naysayers, or at least their stock accounts -
    14 May 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • AlphaCoils
    , contributor
    Comments (280) | Send Message
     
    @Paulo - 3 things: 1. Model S's are selling like hot cakes through word of mouth advertising. I am witnessing it. 2. Elon could raise 1B, 2B in a heartbeat without a stock offering if he needed to (and he doesn't.) 3. If you haven't experienced a Model S, you need to. It's not just an EV- it's so much more... this is why they are selling at such a pace. Most people still haven't heard of Tesla. When they turn on the spigot for gen 3, this will be a game changer.
    14 May 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    Yes, they're selling well. The point is that the pace at which they're selling has stagnated, though. At under 5k cars/Q. And it's not likely to grow from there once it peaks.
    14 May 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • AlphaCoils
    , contributor
    Comments (280) | Send Message
     
    They are just now gearing up to sell in Europe. Nobody knows what the demand will be there-- but one thing is for sure, gas prices are much higher there.
    14 May 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    I think there a lot of pros and cons for Europe I can't wait to see how it works out... like you said gas is expensive... plus they probably drive less in a day then the average american so the limited range probably doesn't bother them as much as it would people in the us...

     

    I worry though that it'll be to expensive without serious subsidization, and that it may be to large of a car compared to what most Europeans are used too. We must remember that Europe is crumbling at its core, and could collapse within the next 6 months should austerity/bailouts fail to correct issues.
    14 May 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • AlphaCoils
    , contributor
    Comments (280) | Send Message
     
    Some parts of Europe do have serious subsidization for EVs(sometimes much better than the US actually!)

     

    http://bit.ly/16x3SgV
    14 May 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    great link thanks
    14 May 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • MERVBT
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Paulo,

     

    I have read your opinions and find them interesting at times.

     

    I only want to know one thing before I read any more comments from you.

     

    Have you actually driven or rode in a Model S?

     

    Got ours Sunday, and about 15 words will describe it.

     

    Awesome

     

    Fantastic

     

    Rides smoother than a Lexus, performs better than most
    Corvettes and Porsches.

     

    The brain trust at Tesla have created this amazing car
    in one package.

     

    My question to you, what other game changing things will they do?
    14 May 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17882) | Send Message
     
    I don't have any doubts that it's an amazing car. And it's selling very well. But the pace at which it sells has peaked in the US.
    14 May 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Surf Dog
    , contributor
    Comments (825) | Send Message
     
    It looks like we'll have to just wait and see, won't we. Meanwhile, I do have better things to do than debate a troll.
    14 May 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • chfp
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    $300 ?? Looks like Goldman is priming the market for a run on Tesla so they can try to short when it dips.

     

    Paulo - don't you have anything better to do than troll the Tesla threads? :P
    14 May 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    lol calling paulo a troll

     

    ignorance is a great place isnt it?
    14 May 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Stymie67
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    Paulo at the end of the day we will need to wait a while to see if your message (repeated and repeated and repeated) around peaked sales is correct or not. There is a lot of attention and interest expanding, and all w/out them spending a cent on marketing. Of course it needs a correction, but when the pullback happens will you be saying "I told you so" even though the stock price will still be may above the point when you said it was time to sell. And dont Bernanke for it all, sorry that is disingenuous. The shorts were the cause, and they were way wrong. Tesla deserve where they are now through great execution of their business plan and a great product. There is a clear scent of a transformational company and a huge buzz factor. I agree that it remains to be seen if they can penetrate the mainstream, but it is a more speculative play now that they will not than they will. And meanwhile, they are beating the other cars in the current class.
    14 May 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • RobertoMac
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    I have one additional point to add, something that Tesla is certainly working on. I currently have a 4.7 kW SolarCity solar panel system on the roof of my house and it saved me over $700 in grid electricity bills last year (at 11 cents per kW hour). Next week I am adding a 3.6 kW SolarCity system to another part of my roof: total 8.3 kW. The installed cost to me for these systems is about 10% of the installed retail value (on a prepaid 20 year lease). If Tesla joins with SolarCity like they did with Honda to give new Tesla buyers a discount on a new SolarCity solar system, those new owners could drive their Model S forever with free electricity. A marriage made in heaven. That could open up an additional market for the Model S and a HUGE market later for the lower cost Tesla EV's. I am long TSLA and long SCTY.
    14 May 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Surf Dog
    , contributor
    Comments (825) | Send Message
     
    I believe that is already happening.
    14 May 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • 123man
    , contributor
    Comments (1032) | Send Message
     
    Report - got my Tesla Friday, 5/10 - drove to friends house , ate dinner with them and on the way home stopped by another friends home to show him and his family my Model S - fast forward to Monday 5/13 - report made by my friend that he and his wife just purchase their Tesla - why? - although they drive many high end Ford products, they can purchase ANY vehicle they want - after seeing ours, the Model S is the one? - repeat, repeat, repeat
    15 May 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • 123man
    , contributor
    Comments (1032) | Send Message
     
    RobertoMac - you are absolutely right - I put solar on my home as an early adopter (could do it for less today, even without any rebates) - I love pulling my Tesla into the garage, plugging it in, knowing that tomorrow I will drive "free" - isn't that what the American dream is all about "freedom"
    15 May 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
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